US House Redistricting: Connecticut

[cinyc]

Is the horrible boundary between One and Five really necessary?

That is what happens with least change maps, where the prior map was itself a mess. I forget whether the prior map was a Dem gerry, or a compromise map, or whatever, but one thing it was, and is, not, is a good government map.

The 2001 map was a compromise map, though even then they changed as little as possible except for combining the 5th and 6th districts. They made the new 5th district as PVI-even as possible and pushed both incumbents into it.

And given where those incumbents lived (New Britain and Danbury), forced CT-05's strange shape and the bizarreness that is the western boundary of CT-01.

More from the Hartford Courant here.  The CT GOP isn't happy but can't do anything about it.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Here's a much nicer version:

[minionofmidas]

And given where those incumbents lived (New Britain and Danbury), forced CT-05's strange shape and the bizarreness that is the western boundary of CT-01.

And suddenly it all made... well, not sense, exactly, but you know what I mean.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yes, it didn't look totally random.

[smoltchanov]

Most likely - again 5-0. Even if Republicans nominate their best candidate (Roraback) for such district - Democratic candidate will be favored. Especially in Presidential year and McMahon as likely republican Senate candidate. Roraback could win in 2010, but, as in MA-06 it will be more difficult in 2012

[JohnnyLongtorso]

With partisan data, it's gerrymander time.

First, for the Dems:



CT-01 - 64.6 Obama, 34.1 McCain
CT-02 - 59.6 Obama, 39.0 McCain
CT-03 - 60.0 Obama, 38.9 McCain
CT-04 - 60.3 Obama, 39.0 McCain
CT-05 - 58.6 Obama, 40.1 McCain

Now, for the Republicans:



CT-01 - 68.4 Obama, 30.4 McCain
CT-02 - 58.6 Obama, 40.0 McCain
CT-03 - 69.6 Obama, 29.3 McCain
CT-04 - 55.2 Obama, 44.0 McCain
CT-05 - 53.3 Obama, 45.3 McCain

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

If I'm the Connecticut GOP and have the opportunity to gerrymander, I'd try to maximize my chances in one district rather than go for two.



51.1% Obama

[RI]

A McCain district is possible. This one is 49.975% McCain.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

except you had to split the 4th, and I don't think that township in the far north is continuous even under touchpoint.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Just run five-meter-wide strips or something along the waterline in Stamford and around the north of Hartland/through a corner of Barkhamsted or Colebrook.