Australian by-elections, 2018

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Having been represented by a Liberal member since 1957 the seat must be considered safe for the Liberals. Indeed since the 1957 by-election the seat has only had to go to preferences twice, in the 1975 by-election and in the 1999 cluster**** election, the last election where Liberals and Nationals competed in the same seats. Indeed, in Wagga Wagga that year the Liberal candidate won from a first preference of just 25.4%.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Having been represented by a Liberal member since 1957 the seat must be considered safe for the Liberals. Indeed since the 1957 by-election the seat has only had to go to preferences twice, in the 1975 by-election and in the 1999 cluster**** election, the last election where Liberals and Nationals competed in the same seats. Indeed, in Wagga Wagga that year the Liberal candidate won from a first preference of just 25.4%.

Just for fun the full preference count from 1999 (thank you Antony Green).

26.3	27.2	28.2	30.6	34.8	42.5
25.4	25.8	26.7	28.7	33.2	57.5
22.9	23.3	24.4	26.8	32.0
10.7	11.1	12.1	13.9
8.0	8.1	8.6
4.2	4.5
2.7

[AustralianSwingVoter]

We should get a final declaration including full distribution of preferences Friday or Saturday.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

With the declaration vote deadline now passed the AEC is starting the final count for full distribution of preferences, and we should be getting the final results declared and certified on Saturday or Sunday.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

The full schedule for the Wagga Wagga by-election, courtesy of the Australia's best electoral commission. (We get full distribution of preferences only 3 days after the count. 3 days!, it takes the AEC 3 weeks!)

Key Dates	Time	Schedule
Monday, 6 August		Open candidate registration
		Open Third-party campaigner registration
Friday, 17 August		Issue of Writ
	6.00pm	Rolls prepared (for confirming candidates and nominators)
		Open nominations on receipt of the Writ
		Start capped State expenditure period
Wednesday, 22 August	12.00 noon	Close of Registered Political Party nominations at NSWEC head office
Thursday, 23 August		Open registration of electoral material
	12.00 noon	Close of nominations at returning officer's office
	12.00 noon	Close candidate registration
	2.00pm	Conduct of ballot paper draw
Monday, 27 August		Pre-poll voting starts
Friday, 31 August	5.00pm	Close registration of electoral material
	6.00pm	Close Third-party campaigner registration
Monday, 3 September		Declared Institution voting starts
	6.00pm	Close postal vote applications (outside Australia)
Wednesday, 5 September	6.00pm	Close postal vote applications (within Australia)
Friday, 7 September	6.00pm	Pre-poll voting ends
		Declared Institution voting ends
Saturday, 8 September	8.00am - 6.00pm	ELECTION DAY
		End of capped State expenditure period
Wednesday, 12 September	6.00pm	Close of return of postal votes
Thursday, 13 September	9.00am	Distribution of preferences (if required)
Friday, 19 October		Last day of return of Writ
Monday, 18 February 2019		Close of claims from Election Campaigns Fund

[AustralianSwingVoter]

https://twitter.com/AusElectoralCom/status/1028049144911261697

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Susan Lamb has been officially declared as formally elected as the MP for Longman.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

The Wagga Wagga Liberal party has selected Snowy Valleys Councillor Julia Ham as their candidate.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

In Fremantle the AEC just realised that they'll have to count Labor vs Liberal Democrat instead of vs Greens.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

First numbers from Fremantle

Candidate	Party	Votes	Margin	This election (%)	Previous election (%)	Swing (%)
WILSON, Josh	Australian Labor Party	496	256	67.39	0.00	+67.39
GRAY, John	Liberal Democrats	240	-256	32.61	0.00	+32.61

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Mayo 2PP update

Party / Coalition	Votes	%	Swing
Liberal/National Coalition	4,549    52.55	-2.80
Australian Labor Party	4,107	47.45	+2.80

[AustralianSwingVoter]

22% counted in the new Fremantle TCP, Labor 75-25 Lib Dem

[AustralianSwingVoter]

37% counted in the new Fremantle TCP, Labor 74-26 Lib Dem

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Everything is counted in Fremantle, so the final TCP is:

Labor	46,375	73.33	+73.33
Liberal Democrats	16,868	26.67	+26.67

[Lachi]

Mayo:

Party / Coalition                   Votes        %              Swing
Liberal/National Coalition   12,171   54.76   -0.59
Australian Labor Party   10,056   45.24   +0.59

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Mayo 2PP update
Party    Votes    %    Swing
Liberal   17,716    54.71    -0.64
Labor    14,665    45.29    +0.64

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Mayo 2PP Update, almost everything counted, only 664 votes remaining
Party      Votes     %           Swing
Liberal   49,147   55.81    +0.46
Labor     38,918   44.19    -0.46

[AustralianSwingVoter]

BRADDON

Party	Candidate	Votes	%	±
Liberal	Brett Whiteley	24,645	39.3	−2.2
Labor	Justine Keay	23,218	37.0	−3.1
Independent	Craig Garland	6,633	10.6	+10.6
Shooters	Brett Neal	2,984	4.8	+4.8
Greens	Jarrod Edwards	2,518	4.0	−2.8
Independent	Donna Gibbons	1,533	2.4	+2.4
Liberal Democrats	Joshua Boag	828	1.3	−0.8
People	Bruno Strangio	421	0.7	+0.7
	Total formal votes	62,780	94.3	−0.5
	Informal votes	3,804	5.7	+0.5
	Turnout	66,584	90.3	−3.8
Labor	Justine Keay	32,842	52.3	+0.1
Liberal	Brett Whiteley	29,938	47.7	−0.1
Labor retain		Swing	+0.1

[MAINEiac4434]

Yeesh, Shooters finishing above the Greens.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

FREMANTLE

Party	Candidate	Votes	%	±
Labor	Josh Wilson	33,277	52.6	+11.6
Greens	Dorinda Cox	10,456	16.5	−1.2
Liberal Democrats	John Gray	8,916	14.1	+14.1
Christians	Mark Staer	3,350	5.3	+5.3
Animal Justice	Katrina Love	3,297	5.2	+5.2
Independent	Jason Spanbroek	3,239	5.1	+5.1
People	James Harfouche	708	1.1	+1.1
	Total formal votes	63,243	92.8	−3.2
	Informal votes	4,933	7.2	+3.2
	Turnout	68,176	66.1	−22.7
Labor	Josh Wilson	46,375	73.3	+15.8
Liberal Democrats	John Gray	16,868	26.7	+26.7
Labor retain		Swing	+15.8

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Yeesh, Shooters finishing above the Greens.

It's Braddon. It's the sort of seat the Shooters do well in. Meanwhile, the Greens don't exactly mesh well with the Fishing and Forestry Industries.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

LONGMAN

Party	Candidate	Votes	%	±
Labor	Susan Lamb	35,203	39.8	+4.5
Liberal National	Trevor Ruthenberg	26,170	29.6	−9.4
One Nation	Matthew Stephen	14,061	15.9	+6.5
Greens	Gavin Behrens	4,264	4.8	+0.4
Independent	Jackie Perkins	2,379	2.7	+2.7
Liberal Democrats	Lloyd Russell	1,762	2.0	+2.0
Country	Blair Verrier	1,387	1.6	+1.6
Democratic Labour	Gregory Bell	1,043	1.2	+1.2
Science	James Noonan	970	1.1	+1.1
Australia First	Jim Saleam	709	0.8	+0.8
People	John Reece	420	0.5	+0.5
	Total formal votes	88,368	93.9	+2.5
	Informal votes	5,707	6.1	−2.5
	Turnout	94,075	84.2	−7.5
Labor	Susan Lamb	48,116	54.4	+3.7
Liberal National	Trevor Ruthenberg	40,252	45.6	−3.7
Labor retain		Swing	+3.7

[AustralianSwingVoter]

MAYO

Party	Candidate	Votes	%	±
Centre Alliance	Rebekha Sharkie	39,369	44.4	+9.5
Liberal	Georgina Downer	33,219	37.4	−0.3
Greens	Major Sumner	7,898	8.9	+0.8
Labor	Reg Coutts	5,370	6.1	−7.5
Christian Democrats	Tracey-Lee Cane	1,348	1.5	+1.5
Liberal Democrats	Stephen Humble	809	0.9	−0.3
People	Kelsie Harfouche	716	0.8	+0.8
	Total formal votes	88,729	96.5	−0.6
	Informal votes	3,246	3.5	+0.6
	Turnout	91,975	85.4	−8.8
Two-party-preferred result
Liberal	Georgina Downer	49,375	55.6	+0.3
Labor	Reg Coutts	39,354	44.4	−0.3
Two-candidate-preferred result
Centre Alliance	Rebekha Sharkie	51,042	57.5	+2.6
Liberal	Georgina Downer	37,687	42.5	−2.6
Centre Alliance retain		Swing	+2.6

[AustralianSwingVoter]

PERTH

Party	Candidate	Votes	%	±
Labor	Patrick Gorman	22,812	39.3	+2.0
Greens	Caroline Perks	10,908	18.8	+1.7
Independent	Paul Collins	5,516	9.5	+9.5
Liberal Democrats	Wesley Du Preez	3,880	6.7	+5.0
Western Australia	Julie Matheson	3,123	5.4	+5.4
Independent	Jim Grayden	2,565	4.4	+4.4
Animal Justice	Nicole Arielli	1,815	3.1	+3.1
Independent	Ian Britza	1,705	2.9	+2.9
Christians	Ellen Joubert	1,474	2.5	+2.5
Science	Aaron Hammond	1,002	1.7	+1.7
Mental Health	Ben Mullings	930	1.6	+1.6
#Sustainable	Colin Scott	774	1.3	+1.3
Liberty Alliance	Tony Robinson	682	1.2	+1.2
CEC	Barry Mason	596	1.0	+1.0
People	Gabriel Harfouche	222	0.4	+0.4
	Total formal votes	58,004	89.9	−6.3
	Informal votes	6,486	10.1	+6.3
	Turnout	64,490	64.0	−24.0
Labor	Patrick Gorman	36,601	63.1	+9.8
Greens	Caroline Perks	21,403	36.9	+36.9
Labor retain		Swing	+9.8

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Braddon

Brett Whiteley	39.3	39.3	39.9	40.3	40.6	42.8	47.7
Justine Keay	37.0	37.1	37.2	37.6	39.1	40.5	52.3
Craig Garland	10.6	10.7	10.9	12.1	13.6	16.7
Brett Neal	4.8	4.9	5.1	5.7	6.7
Jarrod Edwards	4.0	4.0	4.1	4.4
Donna Gibbons	2.4	2.5	2.8
Joshua Boag	1.3	1.4
Bruno Strangio	0.7