Brazil Presidential and Congressional Elections 2018

[Mike88]

9 minutes until the first huge wave of votes in the presidential race.

Also, Bolsonaro seems to have won in Portugal by a landslide.

[jaichind]

Exit poll

Bolsonaro   45
Haddad       28
 

[Mike88]

Exit poll: 2nd round needed. Bolsonaro 45%, Haddad 28%

[parochial boy]

well that could... have been worse...

[jaichind]

More compete Exit poll

Bolsonaro   45
Haddad      28
Gomes       14
Alckmin       4

All things equal I guess Bolsonaro should win second round but it will be close.

[DavidB.]

Bolsonaro at 49% in the count, Haddad at 26% with 53% in.

[Mike88]

First returns:

49.0% Bolsonaro
26.0% Haddad
12.3% Ciro
  4.8% Alckimin

[jaichind]

Current count with 53% of the vote counted

Bolsonaro    49.02%
Haddad       26.09%
Gomes        12.03%
Alckmin        4.84%
.
.
.
Silva            0.95% !!!!?  (and to think for a while CW was that she was going to win in 2014)

I think the Brazil count bias is more pro-Left as the count goes on so I guess the exit poll should roughly be the result.

[DavidB.]

Absolutely solid result for Bolsonaro if the exit polls turn out to be true. Runoff campaign will still be exciting but he should definitely be able to pull this off. Good news.

[jaichind]

Looks like traditional Center-Right vote has tactically voted for Bolsonaro dumping Alckmin along the way.

[jaichind]

According to what Globo is saying, only 11% of the vote for president in the southeast has been counted, that means a lot of pro Bolsonaro vote could still come if that's right. But there's also a big share of northeastern votes that still haven't been counted, so this is probably going to the second round.

I remember in 2014 the vote count shifted toward PT as time went on so this is going to second round.  Oh well.  Close but no cigar. 

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Wow, that Marina result. Was her electorate purely evangelical and shifted to Bolsonaro or what?

[Mike88]

According to what Globo is saying, only 11% of the vote for president in the southeast has been counted, that means a lot of pro Bolsonaro vote could still come if that's right. But there's also a big share of northeastern votes that still haven't been counted, so this is probably going to the second round.

There's still nothing from São Paulo or Minas Gerais.

[jaichind]

According to what Globo is saying, only 11% of the vote for president in the southeast has been counted, that means a lot of pro Bolsonaro vote could still come if that's right. But there's also a big share of northeastern votes that still haven't been counted, so this is probably going to the second round.

There's still nothing from São Paulo or Minas Gerais.

How are you guys seeing results by state ?

[seb_pard]

According to what Globo is saying, only 11% of the vote for president in the southeast has been counted, that means a lot of pro Bolsonaro vote could still come if that's right. But there's also a big share of northeastern votes that still haven't been counted, so this is probably going to the second round.

There's still nothing from São Paulo or Minas Gerais.

How are you guys seeing results by state ?

https://placar.eleicoes.uol.com.br/2018/1turno/presidente-por-estado/

[jaichind]

68% vote counted and Bolsonaro down to 46.38%.  Looks like the exit poll is pretty accurate.

[Mike88]

68% vote counted and Bolsonaro down to 46.38%.  Looks like the exit poll is pretty accurate.

That was an error. He's at 48.4% currently.

[jaichind]

68% vote counted and Bolsonaro down to 46.38%.  Looks like the exit poll is pretty accurate.

That was an error. He's at 48.4% currently.

Opps.  you are right.  I guess now it is a Rio vs Northeast battle now to see Bolsonaro  can make it over 50%.  It is unlikely he will.  There are just too many votes outstanding from places like Bahia.

[Mike88]

Good site with results by state and municipality: https://politica.estadao.com.br/eleicoes/2018/cobertura-votacao-apuracao/primeiro-turno/presidente

[seb_pard]

South almost fully counted

Results (from South)
Parana (96% counted)
JAIR BOLSONARO PSL           57,14%
FERNANDO HADDAD PT         19,41%
CIRO GOMES PDT                  8,35%
ALVARO DIAS PODE               5,24%
GERALDO ALCKMIN PSDB       3,57%

Rio Grande do Sul (90%)
JAIR BOLSONARO PSL            53,05%
FERNANDO HADDAD PT          22,39%
CIRO GOMES PDT                  11,42%
GERALDO ALCKMIN PSDB       5,35%
JOÃO AMOÊDO NOVO             3,01%

Santa Catarina (79%)
JAIR BOLSONARO PSL           65,82%
FERNANDO HADDAD PT        14,99%
CIRO GOMES PDT                 6,73%
JOÃO AMOÊDO NOVO           4,14%
GERALDO ALCKMIN PSDB     3,86%

[jaichind]

Ibope's Cavallari says "very difficult" to make forecasts for runoff at this point.

[jaichind]

Looks like the count has been stuck at 68% counted for a while.  What is the holdup ?

[jaichind]

Never a 1st round frontrunner candidate failed to be elected in Brazil.  But I made a similar point about 2016 Peru as I was certain that Fujimori was going to win only to see PPK win as the moderate alternative.   Like Fujimori 2016 in Peru, Bolsonaro is also the radical candidate which makes him vulnerable in the second round.

[Mike88]

By city:

São Paulo city (93.6% in)

44.9% Bolsonaro
19.3% Haddad
14.9% Ciro
  8.8% Alckimin

Rio de Janeiro city (18.5% in)

56.6% Bolsonaro
21.4% Ciro
11.7% Haddad
  2.7% Amoêdo
  2.1% Alckimin

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Looks like the count has been stuck at 68% counted for a while.  What is the holdup ?

To be honest I am surprised that they are counting so fast with such big amount of votes. In Poland we would have now maybe first conference of Electoral Commision and maybe no partial results still.