Ontario 2018 election

[DC Al Fine]

Has anyone seen this?

http://www.calculatedpolitics.com/project/2018-ontario/

"CalculatedPolitics.com is not a polling firm and the data included herein should not be understood as individual polls of all the electoral districts in the country. Rather, the data you see here represents a projection of likely election outcomes in each riding using statistical methodology based on all publicly available polling data."

Some I am questioning heavily like Humber River-Black Creek and Scarborough Centre

It looks like they aren't adjusting the model for the surge enough, which makes the NDP run up the score in their strongholds and fall short elsewhere.

[DC Al Fine]

I wonder how much they've incorporated federal numbers in the mix. That would explain the weird numbers.

Oh, and the NDP is targeting Whitby, so their chances are better than a 'cold day in hell'.

Cold day in Saudi Arabia perhaps?

[DC Al Fine]

I wouldn't mind if they're able to keep a few "John Tory Liberal" seats.

Same here. Those seats seem like they would go PC before going NDP.

Silly Dippers. The only correct response for us non-natural governing party types is to hope the Liberals go down in flames. Its the same reason I'm rooting for the NDP in Kingston and Thunder Bay.

[DC Al Fine]

New Innovative poll came out - if the results were already posted, I apologize in advance!

People were polled after the debate (from the 27th to 29th). The numbers are:

Liberal: 22%
PC: 34%
NDP: 36%

It is nowhere close to the Pollara poll, but it is showing definite movement for the NDP. There is lots of info for the stats nerds!

https://innovativeresearch.ca/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/IRG36-Tracking-Wave-4-Post-Debate.pdf

Did anyone review those much loved Value Clusters! Not good news for the PCs

The NDP leads among 4 of the 6 categories
Left Liberals, 45%
Core Left, 60%
Thrifty Moderates, 37% (now leads the PCs)
Business Liberals! 37% (this is the tightest group, OLP at 33% and PCs 24%, huge crash for them, in April, they held 41%)

PCs lead their traditional clusters
Deferential Conservatives, 51% (a decline from 65% in April)
Populist Conservatives, 70% (a decline from 81% in April)

Angus Reid is the second pollster to have the NDP at 40% in the 416, good news for the NDP and perhaps the PCs too, both polls have the OLP and PCs close together inn the 20's so we could see the NDP more then expected.

The populist conservative one is interesting. That's barely more than Hudak managed. The remaining Tory improvement from 2014 seems to be coming from Deferential Conservatives and Thrifty Moderates.

[DC Al Fine]

I certainly love reading about the riding polls by Mainstreet but it should be noted that it is extremely challenging to do riding polls these days - especially in urban ridings - because it is literally impossible to get cell phone numbers at the riding level. That means that if you see a poll of 500 people in St. Paul's (for example) it is a poll of 500 people with directory listed land lines in that riding...there is likely almost no one under the age of 40 in the sample apart from a few millennials living with their parents who happen to pick up the phone. You can weight by age...but its tough when you have such a tiny number of young people in the sample to begin with.

To add to that, it doesn't necessarily follow that young people who live with their parents vote the same way as their counterparts living independently.

[DC Al Fine]

It's annoying seeing the pundits with their crappy "everyone sucks" takes.

"Why can't every one be fiscally conservative but socially liberal (like me lol)?"

Is such an overdone take. I wouldn't even mind all the "everyone sucks" takes if they weren't so bloody uniform. Where are the socons boycotting the godless major parties or the hard leftists upset at NDP backsliding? Those columns would spice up the Globe and Mail.

[DC Al Fine]

What are the genuine three-way races in this election?  Not "three way" in the sense that one party is strong enough to play spoiler but that any of the three parties can win.

Don Valley East seems to be the obvious one (the similar provincial riding of Don Mills went NDP with 35% of the vote in 1990).

Maybe Ottawa West-Nepean and Ottawa South?

St. Catharines perhaps?

Guelph could be one.

[DC Al Fine]

Dark horse 3-way race: Ottawa-Vanier

You really think the Tories could pull that one off? I just assumed they would be a distant third, or maybe second with like 22% if the Liberals crapped the bed.

[DC Al Fine]

Forum out with a new poll which shows a wild PC-NDP swing

PC 39% (+6)
NDP 35% (-12)
Liberals 19% (+5)

Forum seat model shows PC winning 71 seats to the NDP 49 seats and 6 for the Liberals.

http://torontosun.com/news/local-news/braun-doug-fords-pcs-inch-ahead-in-new-poll

H+K strategies shows the NDP in the lead.

NDP 39% (+7)
PC 37% (-1)
Liberals 19% (-4)
Green 6% (+6)
http://hkinsights.ca/research-results-a-hold-your-nose-and-vote-election/

This is why Forum Polls are junk polls.

Lol Forum

[DC Al Fine]

https://www.ontariopc.ca/plan_for_the_people
Can Doug really deliver all of this?

No. He wants to spend, cut taxes and reduce the deficit.

[DC Al Fine]

Was the Mike Harris of 1990 basically the same Harris of 1995?  Or did he recast himself from a more "mainstream" PC to the Common Sense Revolutionary he became known for?

I'm not sure about the campaign itself but he won the leadership on a fairly right wing platform.

[DC Al Fine]

Is there a reason people are refusing to post the results of these famed riding polls on this thread?
This isn't a difficult request; it would be helpful for us without access to see what you are talking about.

They're paywalled.

[DC Al Fine]

Innovative Research had the Liberals leading among voters who "Haven't paid much attention" to the campaign. Lol

[DC Al Fine]

certain companies this time are using them as a money making scam. Beware.

That's ridiculous.

There's no way Mainstreet is making money off of this. Polling firms do not make money doing election polling. It's all about publicity, and Mainstreet is not too far off from losing their entire credibility. So, they have a lot to lose with junky polls. (that's not to say they aren't going to be junky).

Do you think Mainstreet is on probation for their huge Calgary screw-up?

Yes, not to mention the aforementioned BC riding polls and some of the other by-election riding polls they've done.

But back to the costs of such a thing, let's be generous and say there are 1000 subscribers. That's $30K. That's nowhere close to the amount that it would cost to collect as many cases as they have in all of those ridings.

Hatman, how much does your standard election poll cost to do?

[DC Al Fine]

I really, really doubt Ford loses in Etobicoke North.

First of all, this model does not take into account at all Ford's personal popularity in north Etobicoke.  Second, these seat projection models are kinda useless right now (yes, more useless than Mainstreet's riding polls!)

I know people overuse the term star candidate, but yeah, you absolutely have to take into account the impact of star candidates on their ridings. Using a Hudak Tory's result in Etobicoke North to predict Doug Ford's result is just silly.

[DC Al Fine]

Vaughan-Woodbridge (lol)

FFS

[DC Al Fine]

Poll out today: http://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2018/06/without-significant-changes-doug-ford-on-track-for-majority-government/

39-35-19

Interesting that the Liberals are doing worse with visible minorities than non-minorities.

[DC Al Fine]

At least in 1990 there was an argument to be made that the Liberals were the party best positioned to "stop the NDP."

But it makes no sense whatsoever in today's context - because almost nobody will be voting Liberal to "stop the NDP."  Things must have sunk really low when they're trying to save St. Paul's from going NDP or something.

Ottawa Centre, most likely.

Ottawa Centre also has Tories who will vote NDP to stop the Liberals.

As a Tory...

F the Liberals and their natural governing party nonsense. May they get wiped out forever and ever amen.

[DC Al Fine]

YUGE: Wynne is preemptively conceding today and asking Ontarians to elect enough Grits to force a minority government.

Damn.

[DC Al Fine]

YUGE: Wynne is preemptively conceding today and asking Ontarians to elect enough Grits to force a minority government.

This will just make sure there are zero Liberals at Queen’s Park

Glorious

[DC Al Fine]

I don't think so.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1s8O8RZ2kdY

Snarky Youtube videos aside, the data says otherwise.

The GTA has huge sinkholes like York Region (an area of 1 million people where the NDP has no shot of winning a seat whatsoever) and Halton Region (another 500,000, same thing).  Significant parts of Mississauga too.

Van doesn't have anything like these high income outer suburbs with that kind of demographic and politcal influence.

The NDP holds the majority (18/33) of suburban Metro Vancouver) seats.  Even if the NDP got Horgan's share in Ontario I can't see the NDP getting close to half of the 905 seats.

It's not exactly clear where Van's outer suburbs begins - but I'd be inclined to exclude Burnaby, New Westminster, the North Shore and Richmond (transit Zone 1).  But even a majority of the next zone suburbs are NDP-held: 6 out of 9 provincial ridings in Surrey, 3 out of 4 Tri-Cities, a seat in Delta, both seats in the Maple Ridge area etc.

Average HH income, 905 ridings:

Oakville 177,283
Oakville North-Burlington  146,529
King-Vaughan  145,923
Aurora-Oak Ridges-Richmond Hill  137,070
Mississauga-Lakeshore  130,832
Vaughan-Woodbridge   129,041
Thornhill  126,546
Markham-Stouffville  125,201
Milton  124,592
Mississauga-Streetsville  122,872
Whitby  121,180
Pickering-Uxbridge  120,517
Newmarket-Aurora  119,948
Markham-Unionville  117,310
Burlington    115,369
Mississauga-Erin Mills    115,151
Brampton East   113,121
Ajax    112,569
Markham-Thornhill  107,402
Brampton North    105,877
Brampton West   105,587
Richmond Hill  104,043
Mississauga-Malton  95,560
Brampton South  89,278
Mississauga Centre  86,181
Brampton Centre  84,618
Mississauga East-Cooksville  83,574
Oshawa  79,552

Outer suburbs of Vancouver:

Delta   111,923
South Surrey-White Rock  110,072
Langley-Aldegrove  107,710
Port Moody-Coquitlam  102,479
Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge   99,022
Fleetwood-Port Kells  98,857
Coquitlam-Port Coquitlam  94,205
Cloverdale-Langley City  93,893
Surrey-Newton  85,121
Surrey Centre  72,046

So I stand by my point.  Van's outer suburbs are more similar to Peel/Durham than York/Halton socioeconomically.

Halifax West: $71,495

Feels bad man.

[DC Al Fine]

This allows them to vote their preference in ridings where Liberals were strong. Contrary to others, I actually think it will strengthen the Liberal vote in places like Ottawa Centre, Spadina Ft. York, Willowdale, Eglinton Lawrence and even places like Beaches East York. Will it be enough? Who knows.

But strong relative to *whom*?  In only two of those seats are the Tories historically the primary opposition.

Actually, I think the prime seat Wynne has in mind is her own--it's just her luck that she represents the ultimate "strategic left = Liberal" riding...

If you are leading your party to an historic defeat, I'd lost say it's almost better to lose your seat.

[DC Al Fine]

I'm old-fashioned.  Even if my electoral intent is set long beforehand, I'd rather vote with the herd on election day.  And, psephologically speaking: that way, my vote counts within my polling station, and on the polling map, rather than disappearing in the amorphous maw of "advance votes".  I'm contributing to the meaningful function of geographic polling data ;-)

Now there's something we can all agree on

[DC Al Fine]

Don't revoke my subscription - somebody else leaked it!:

https://twitter.com/CoryJudson/status/1003376996926283777

If the NDP picks up Burlington/Oakville the right/left class swap will be complete.

[DC Al Fine]

or the PCs choking in the last moments of the campaign.

Someone in the PC war room ought to kidnap Ford and lock him up in a nice cottage somewhere until election day just in case.