British General Election Constituency Predictions

[Filuwaúrdjan]

So, yeah. Eventually I got round to doing this. I will do predictions for all Labour-held constituencies with majorities of under 20%, all LibDem constituencies with majorities of under 10% and all Conservative constituencies with majorities of under 5%. Rallings & Thrasher notionals will be used and there will be occasional exceptions (more linked to media interest than 'owt else). A piss-poor justification can be found on the main thread.

I'm not sure how many 'editions' of this I'll manage before the election (I do have other things to do, you see), but I'll get at least one out. Feel free to criticise my pathetic guesswork. That is what this board is for.

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[Filuwaúrdjan]

North East

Blaydon - Labour 13.7% over LibDem.

Probably safer than the majority indicates. Anderson polled over 50% in 2005 and the Tory vote shrunk to what must be its absolute core (only 8%). This is quite a polarised constituency (an uneasy combination of industrial towns and villages and posh Newcastle suburbs) and it isn't clear where any extra LibDem votes might come from. The LibDems have also had some candidate problems. It seems likely that the seat will only be lost if things go dreadfully for Labour.

City of Durham - Labour 7.4% over LibDem.

The situation here is quite confused; the swing needed for a LibDem gain is small enough for a gain to be possible even without the massive boon for LibDem hopes in university towns given to them by the 2001-2005 Parliament and the seat is widely regarded as being vulnerable. But this is another polarised constituency; the City proper is a well-educated, professional and white-collar island in a vast proletarian sea and there's enough of the latter within the boundary of the constituency to allow Blackman-Woods to poll a decent 47% in 2005. The LibDems have done well here in local elections, but then this was also true of 2001-2005 and they don't seem to have done much better this Parliament. It may also be worth mentioning the theory that Labour will regain quite a bit of ground in areas where large numbers of votes were lost to the Kennedy-led LibDems in 2005; if this happens (fwiw I'm not convinced, at least not as regards the non-Muslim end of things), then Labour's position here is stronger than first impressions indicate. Overall, I think this is mostly a turnout battle; national factors may be important, but it isn't certain quite how they'll impact here.

Middlesbrough South & East Cleveland - Labour majority 18.5% over Conservative

The untimely death of Ashok Kumar has probably changed the situation here greatly; Kumar was widely regarded as one of the best constituency MP's in the history of the Commons and there was never any chance of him being defeated this year. As it is, the notional figures might not be of any use now, though a generic Labour candidate would still have won with reasonable comfort. This is a very diverse constituency including middle class suburbs, large council estates, clapped-out seaside resorts, ancient villages and market towns and the old ironstone mining villages ultimately responsible for the existence of the entire Teeside metropolitan area. A Labour victory is still the most likely outcome here, but that's not entirely certain.

Newcastle-upon-Tyne North - Labour majority 16.8% over LibDem

Knock-on effects from the changes caused by the decision of the boundary commission to dismantle the absurd Tyne Bridge constituency have made Newcastle North the principle LibDem target in the city. Newcastle North is an entirely suburban constituency and includes drab suburbia, council estates and now all of the posh suburb of Gosforth (the richest area in the North East). Local elections have been impressive for the LibDems here, enough so that they might think a gain is a real possibility; while they've stood still in most of Newcastle since winning control of the council in 2004, they've made great strides in all wards in this area, save one. Meanwhile, the constituency's longserving MP Douglas Henderson is retiring. Against this it must be noted that Labour's notional percentage is still rather high (a tad under 50%) and that local elections have flattered the LibDems in quite a few other cities over the past few decades. This constituency is clearly more vulnerable than indicated by the decent notional majority, but it might not pay to overstate that.

Stockton South - Labour majority 13.4% over Conservative

A key marginal since its creation in 1983, Stockton South is somewhat misnamed and has an unusual electoral history. Only a fairly small part of Stockton-on-Tees is in the constituency (the most middle class part of a working class town - with the exception of the area around the town centre), with the rest being nondescript suburbs once in Yorkshire that look to Middlesbrough as much as to Stockton (the largest are Thornaby-on-Tees, Ingleby Barwick and Egglescliffe). Tory strength here mostly comes from the middle class parts of Stockton, while Labour is strongest in and around the town centre. The suburbs south of the Tees are dominated by independents at a local level, but must have voted Labour in recent General Elections (and for the SDP in the 1980s). This is an important seat for the Conservatives, but won't be an easy gain. A close result would be a return to past form, as in the first decade of its existence it saw three close results in a row, while the old constituency of Thornaby was ever marginal.

Tynemouth - Labour majority 11.6% over Conservative

For decades Tynemouth was an appalling flirt; Labour would come close in election after election but were never able to manage a gain. Though this hasn't been true since 1997, the reason for it is important; this is an incredibly polarised constituency. The Tories dominate the posh seaside resorts of Whitley Bay, Cullercoats and Monkseaton, while the rest (a strange mixture of drab Newcastle suburbs and old industrial towns) votes Labour. Local elections are no guide to form here; the local Tories have overperformed for decades and will continue to do so (if the locals are on the same day this year watch out for some laughable ticket splitting). This will be close, once again, though it may be that Tynemouth flirts in the other direction this year - boundary changes have resulted in a slight shift towards Labour and that might prove decisive. Somewhat obviously, the result here will largely be determined by the fate of the parties nationally.

...not only, but also:

Sunderland Central - Labour majority 25.5% over Conservative.

Any good the boundary commission did in abolishing Tyne Bridge was largely undone by this pointless creation; the problems caused by the growth of Washington appear to have driven them mad, because there's no sane justification for the existence of this constituency (which, despite the name, actually includes one ward that isn't part of Sunderland proper). Despite the fearsome notional majority, this constituency has seen above average interest, largely because what Tory strength there is in Sunderland has been concentrated into this constituency and they have led here in recent local elections. A high swing is likely here, but Labour are very unlikely to lose; in part because there's no evidence that the good Tory results in local elections here are anything other than a local phenonemon (Tory overperformance here goes way back, and Sunderland was, I think, the worst local authority in the North East for the Tories in the European Elections), and in part because this is exactly the sort of socially polarised constituency where General Election turnout levels are a massive boon for Labour. But this will be much closer than any neighbouring constituency - which may not be saying much.

[You kip if you want to...]

Will you be doing the "Others" seats and seats where the 4th parties could gain btw? (i.e. Barking, Brighton, Buckingham, SNP seats, Plaid seats, Blaeneu Gwent.)

[minionofmidas]

Will you be doing the "Others" seats and seats where the 4th parties could gain btw? (i.e. Barking, Brighton, Buckingham, SNP seats, Plaid seats, Blaeneu Gwent.)

[You kip if you want to...]

Will you be doing the "Others" seats and seats where the 4th parties could gain btw? (i.e. Barking, Brighton, Buckingham, SNP seats, Plaid seats, Blaeneu Gwent.)

Nigel Farage trying to beat the speaker.

[minionofmidas]

Will you be doing the "Others" seats and seats where the 4th parties could gain btw? (i.e. Barking, Brighton, Buckingham, SNP seats, Plaid seats, Blaeneu Gwent.)

Nigel Farage trying to beat the speaker.

Ah, right.

[Phony Moderate]

Will you be doing the "Others" seats and seats where the 4th parties could gain btw? (i.e. Barking, Brighton, Buckingham, SNP seats, Plaid seats, Blaeneu Gwent.)

If 2005 is anything to go by, Poplar and Limehouse could be an interesting seat to watch too....

[Harry Hayfield]

North East

Blaydon - Labour 13.7% over LibDem.
City of Durham - Labour 7.4% over LibDem.
Middlesbrough South & East Cleveland - Labour majority 18.5% over Conservative
Newcastle-upon-Tyne North - Labour majority 16.8%

If these are personal opinions as opposed to actual polling based estimates:

Blaydon - Labour hold.
City of Durham - Liberal Democrat GAIN from Labour.
Middlesbrough South & East Cleveland - Conservative GAIN from Labour
Newcastle-upon-Tyne North - Labour hold

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Will you be doing the "Others" seats and seats where the 4th parties could gain btw? (i.e. Barking, Brighton, Buckingham, SNP seats, Plaid seats, Blaeneu Gwent.)

I'll be using the same cutoff point for other parties as for the LibDems. Some seats that have had more attention than is due to them by their majority will get covered after the main section (as I've done in the edited post above!)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I'm wondering whether there should be a vague geographical order to the order in which different regions are done, or whether I should be totally random.

[bullmoose88]

I'm wondering whether there should be a vague geographical order to the order in which different regions are done, or whether I should be totally random.

Some sort of discernable pattern would be helpful for the slower members, like myself, here.  Pretty please.

[freek]

I'm wondering whether there should be a vague geographical order to the order in which different regions are done, or whether I should be totally random.

Some sort of discernable pattern would be helpful for the slower members, like myself, here.  Pretty please.

I second this.

[bullmoose88]

I'm wondering whether there should be a vague geographical order to the order in which different regions are done, or whether I should be totally random.

Some sort of discernable pattern would be helpful for the slower members, like myself, here.  Pretty please.

I second this.

At least I'm not alone.

It doesn't have to be geographic,  it could be more of a swing style pattern.  If we are to assume that the swings are going to be against Labour, you could have the seats most likely to fall first regardless of location (but some context would help for us non-UKers) and proceeding to the ultimate seachange/landslide scenarios.

[minionofmidas]

From most Labourite to most Conservative region perhaps? ie, do Wales next?

[Silent Hunter]

I've got thirty-one seats for my Super Sixty contest so far:

Arfon
Brigg & Goole
Buckingham
Ceredigon
Cleethorpes
Clywd West
Crawley
Croydon Central
Dagenham and Rainham
Dover
Edinburgh North & Leith
Edinburgh South West
Finchley & Golders Green
Gillingham & Rainham
Guildford
Harlow
Hove
Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath
Liverpool Wavertree
Ochil & South Perthshire
Poplar and Limehouse
Rochdale
Rugby
Sheffield Hallam
Solihull
Thurrock
Watford
Waveney
Westmoreland and Lonsdale
Witney
York Outer

Does anyone have any suggestions for it?

[Harry Hayfield]

I've got thirty-one seats for my Super Sixty contest so far:

Arfon
Brigg & Goole
Buckingham
Ceredigon
Cleethorpes
Clywd West
Crawley
Croydon Central
Dagenham and Rainham
Dover
Edinburgh North & Leith
Edinburgh South West
Finchley & Golders Green
Gillingham & Rainham
Guildford
Harlow
Hove
Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath
Liverpool Wavertree
Ochil & South Perthshire
Poplar and Limehouse
Rochdale
Rugby
Sheffield Hallam
Solihull
Thurrock
Watford
Waveney
Westmoreland and Lonsdale
Witney
York Outer

Does anyone have any suggestions for it?

Glad to see that Ceredigion has made it onto your list. Might I suggest the addition of: Morley and Outwood, Stirling and Newport East and the deletion of Gillingham (due to it being too easy to guess)?

[Phony Moderate]

Rugby

Yay!

[Verily]

You really don't need Witney, Sheffield Hallam or Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath on there. Despite being the leaders' seats, none of them are remotely interesting and really just freebie predictions.

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

I've prepared a load of detailed predictions of all the seats that I think will or could change hands.  Anyone interested?

[Smid]

I've prepared a load of detailed predictions of all the seats that I think will or could change hands.  Anyone interested?

Um... yes!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I've prepared a load of detailed predictions of all the seats that I think will or could change hands.  Anyone interested?

Of course.

[Хahar 🤔]

I've got thirty-one seats for my Super Sixty contest so far:

Arfon
Brigg & Goole
Buckingham
Ceredigon
Cleethorpes
Clywd West
Crawley
Croydon Central
Dagenham and Rainham
Dover
Edinburgh North & Leith
Edinburgh South West
Finchley & Golders Green
Gillingham & Rainham
Guildford
Harlow
Hove
Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath
Liverpool Wavertree
Ochil & South Perthshire
Poplar and Limehouse
Rochdale
Rugby
Sheffield Hallam
Solihull
Thurrock
Watford
Waveney
Westmoreland and Lonsdale
Witney
York Outer

Does anyone have any suggestions for it?

South Down
North Down
Belfast South

[Hash]

I've got thirty-one seats for my Super Sixty contest so far:

Arfon
Brigg & Goole
Buckingham
Ceredigon
Cleethorpes
Clywd West
Crawley
Croydon Central
Dagenham and Rainham
Dover
Edinburgh North & Leith
Edinburgh South West
Finchley & Golders Green
Gillingham & Rainham
Guildford
Harlow
Hove
Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath
Liverpool Wavertree
Ochil & South Perthshire
Poplar and Limehouse
Rochdale
Rugby
Sheffield Hallam
Solihull
Thurrock
Watford
Waveney
Westmoreland and Lonsdale
Witney
York Outer

Does anyone have any suggestions for it?

South Down
North Down
Belfast South

North Antrim

[Silent Hunter]

You really don't need Witney, Sheffield Hallam or Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath on there. Despite being the leaders' seats, none of them are remotely interesting and really just freebie predictions.

Yes, I know. I did it last time and I'd like to give people some free points.

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

I've prepared a load of detailed predictions of all the seats that I think will or could change hands.  Anyone interested?

Of course.

Okey dokey.  I should start by explaining that:
(1) This is far too detailed and will be done in parts.
(2) I am not as good as this game as Al is.
(3) No attempt has been made at any kind of consistency whatsoever

This was prepared as part of my entry for the Electomania competition being run by my friend Mark Labbett - seen here on a recent national TV game show.  The task is to predict all 650 constituencies - PM me and I'll send you the entry form.

I should explain that I think as the campaign develops, people will be put off by David Cameron's general smarminess, and when they work out who Nick Clegg is will decide he might be worth voting for.  (I am not a Lib Dem.)  I'm predicting final vote shares of something like C 36 Lab 30 LD 24, but I have taken the time to go through every seat and consider the local position.

Errors and omissions expected.

--PART I--

Top 10 Labour targets.


10. WELLINGBOROUGH - The boundary changes almost wipe out the Tory majority but this is a safer seat than it looks. CON HOLD

9. ROCHESTER AND STROOD - Bob Marshall-Andrews is standing down and nearly lost his seat last time. The Tory candidate rejoices in the name of Mark Reckless. CON HOLD

8. DUNDEE EAST - The SNP now hold both Dundee seats in the Scottish Parliament and Labour are falling behind. SNP HOLD

7. SHIPLEY - The Tories' only seat in West Yorkshire. They have a big vote in Bingley which should see them through. CON HOLD

6. FINCHLEY AND GOLDERS GREEN - A Labour seat converted to Tory in the boundary changes. Rudi Vis is standing down. The spiritual home of Thatcherism although it was never the safest of seats for her. CON HOLD

5. SOMERSET NORTH EAST - The Tories' selection of proven vote-loser Jacob Rees-Mogg can only be described as an epic fail. This seat already has a Labour MP although the boundary changes wipe out his majority. LAB GAIN

4. KETTERING - See Wellingborough. CON HOLD

3. HEMEL HEMPSTEAD - A New Town and prone to volatile swings. Gained by the Tories in 05 and the new MP will get a boost from that. CON HOLD

2. CLWYD WEST - If this constituency were in England it would be a lot safer for the Conservatives. CON HOLD

1. SITTINGBOURNE AND SHEPPEY - Currently has a Labour MP but Tories should win. CON HOLD

Conservative targets on a swing of 0.5%


1. GILLINGHAM AND RAINHAM - Most marginal seat of all based on the new boundaries. CON GAIN

2. CRAWLEY - Unchanged seat, Labour have collapsed at local level. CON GAIN

3. YORK OUTER - Completely new seat and no-one knows what to expect. Various 2005 notional figures differ widely and give hope for all three main parties. The Lib Dems are strong here and the result will be close but: CON GAIN

4. ROMSEY AND SOUTHAMPTON NORTH - Held by the 2000 by-election winner Sandra Gidley of whom I have heard little since 2005. CON GAIN

5. HARLOW - So close last time it didn't finish counting until Saturday. Like Crawley a New Town. CON GAIN

6. CHELTENHAM - Very close between LD and C last time but the Lib Dems had a new candidate then who should now consolidate his position. LD HOLD

7. CROYDON CENTRAL - Elected a Conservative in 2005 although he left the party in disgrace. Boundary changes are helpful to Labour but the BNP will siphon off Labour votes in New Addington. CON GAIN

8. PORTSMOUTH NORTH - Labour have collapsed here at local level and the Tories should finish the job off. CON GAIN

9. BATTERSEA - This is in Wandsworth where the Tories are so strong on the council that local results tell us virtually nothing, but demographic change is in the Conservatives' favour. CON GAIN

10. HOVE - The Tories performed well here in Brighton & Hove council elections. CON GAIN

Conservative targets on a swing of 1%


11. SOMERTON AND FROME - Has had virtually no swing since 1997 even though the Tories keep throwing the kitchen sink at it. The Tory candidate is Annunziata Rees-Mogg, daughter of William and brother of Jacob. Will be close again. LD HOLD

12. EASTLEIGH - Much as I detest Chris Huhne, the yellow peril are dominant on Eastleigh council. LD HOLD

13. WESTMORLAND AND LONSDALE - No chance of a Tory gain here. The Lib Dems have convincingly taken control of South Lakeland council and the Labour vote in Kendal has collapsed in the Lib Dems' favour. LD HOLD

14. MILTON KEYNES NORTH - Already has a Tory MP although the boundary changes are unfavourable to them. CON GAIN

15. STROUD - A slightly newagey place where the Greens are a factor. CON GAIN

16. DARTFORD - Close in 2005. This seat will include most of the Ebbsfleet development when that gets going. CON GAIN

Part II tomorrow.