British General Election Constituency Predictions

[You kip if you want to...]

So if the Democratic Unionist Party aligns with the Tories, the Tories are short of a majority by one, is that correct?

A Tory-DUP coalition would be 2 short. I included the Speaker as part of the Tory total, but he doesn't count when determining the majority since he's officially an Independant (the Speaker has to resign party affiliation upon election to the role) and the Speaker isn't allowed to enter any coalition. The Speaker also has to vote to keep the status quo if there's no majority or a tie.

Shinners hold F-ST?

My knowledge of Northern Irish politics isn't great...

[Verily]

Shinners hold F-ST?

It's at least possible although not particularly likely. Also, the SDLP will have a lot of trouble trying to hold Belfast South. And South Antrim should flip to the UUP, as might Belfast East.

[You kip if you want to...]

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Potential (quasi-realistic?) coalitions:

Conservative - Liberal Democrats (370 seats)
Conservative - SNP - Plaid Cymru (328 seats)
Conservative - Labour (561 seats) Now that would be interesting.

It's near impossible for Labour to be in a coalition that doesn't include the Conservatives.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It's near impossible for Labour to be in a coalition that doesn't include the Conservatives.

Given... well...



...that means (if your predictions be true) that its pretty much impossible for Labour to be in a coalition, full stop.

[Harry Hayfield]

Lib Dems GAIN Derby North??? Surely that should be an easy Con GAIN

[minionofmidas]

Actually that should be a Labour Hold owed almost entirely to a lack of clarity about who the challenger is.
Or it could be a Tory gain.
Or a Lib Dem gain.

Probably in that order of likelihood, though. Though I'm willing to compromise on the order of first and second.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The Derby re-map must be one of the most radical anywhere in the country. LibDems do well in new North in local elections, but we must always be very careful about drawing too much out of that - I note that Labour won Liverpool Garston by over 20% in 2005.

[minionofmidas]

Define "radical".

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Define "radical".

As in 'everything is ripped up and drawn again from scratch' - it's the usual word used to describe that with boundary changes here for some reason.

[minionofmidas]

Define "radical".

As in 'everything is ripped up and drawn again from scratch' - it's the usual word used to describe that with boundary changes here for some reason.

So what makes Derby more radical than York in that case? Or Gwynnedd, for what it's worth? (One thing is the obvious statutory sense behind those remaps. I'd have to take a closer look at what happened at Derby.)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Define "radical".

As in 'everything is ripped up and drawn again from scratch' - it's the usual word used to describe that with boundary changes here for some reason.

So what makes Derby more radical than York in that case? Or Gwynnedd, for what it's worth? (One thing is the obvious statutory sense behind those remaps. I'd have to take a closer look at what happened at Derby.)

I wrote 'one of' not 'the most'. Though, yeah, both York and Gwynedd were to align with local government boundaries.

[You kip if you want to...]

Anyone got any thoughts of Richard Taylor's chances in Wyre Forest? I found that one quite had to predict, but I settled on a pretty safe Tory gain.

[Verily]

Anyone got any thoughts of Richard Taylor's chances in Wyre Forest? I found that one quite had to predict, but I settled on a pretty safe Tory gain.

Have to agree. IKHHC has been fading fast on the Wyre Forest Council, and the Lib Dems will be standing against Taylor this time rather than supporting him (presumably, they picked up that he was toast anyway). A pity.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Anyone got any thoughts of Richard Taylor's chances in Wyre Forest? I found that one quite had to predict, but I settled on a pretty safe Tory gain.

The Doctor is probably done for. Though Kiddy is a weird place...

[Verily]

Lib Dems GAIN Derby North??? Surely that should be an easy Con GAIN

Notionals for Derby North put the Lib Dems much closer than the Conservatives. Basically all of the areas of LD strength that used to be in Derby South are now in Derby North.

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/guide/seat-profiles/derbynorth

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The Rallings & Thrasher notionals are not so favourable to the LibDems, but the basic picture is the same. Linky.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

North West

Barrow & Furness - Labour majority 12.5% over Conservative

One of three seats in 'Cumbria' where the work of the boundary commission has resulted in a weaker Labour position, Barrow & Furness is also an open seat; right-wing former cabinet minister John Hutton is retiring after four terms. The boundary changes might weaken Labour, but not greatly and not by enought to change the character of the constituency. Its largest town is Barrow-in-Furness, a shipbuilding town in Lancashire-across-the-Sands dependent on defense manufacturing; especially all things regarding nuclear submarines. Barrow is Labour's strongest part of the constituency but voted Tory in the 1980s because of Labour's then unilateralist stance (it probably didn't help that the otherwise well-regarded Albert Booth, the defeated incumbent in 1983, was a member of CND). The other towns are Ulverston, Dalton-in-Furness and Broughton-in-Furness. Ulverston and Dalton are both more capable of voting for either party, while Broughton (brought into the constituency by boundary changes) is strongly Tory. Labour have done poorly in local elections here (in part due to a splinter party) but that might not mean a great deal; Labour have underperfomed in local elections in this odd corner of the world for over thirty years. Boundary changes and the retirement of Hutton can only be good news for the Tories, but the government's committment to the Trident weapon's system is somewhat unlikely to hurt Labour in Barrow. Although the majority (just within range of the swing suggested by most polls) seems to indicate the importance of national swing here, it's possible - though by no means certain - that other factors will be of more importance.

Blackburn - Labour majority 19.4% over Conservative

Almost falling outside the scope of this little survey, Blackburn is (as you all know) a large Lancashire mill town and has been represented in Parliament since 1979 by Jack Straw. This is unlikely to change; Labour actually led here in the European Elections and have done well in local elections (I think sometimes polling a higher share of the vote than Straw did in the Iraq-tinged 2005 election - the tendency for two-candidate races in local elections here explains some of that; but note that Labour has been winning those two-candidate elections). Blackburn can be roughly, though not entirely accurately, divided into three unequal thirds; white and middle class, white and working class and Asian and working class. The white vote has been solid for quite a while (including in local elections) with the middle class section voting overwhelmingly Tory and the working class section voting Labour. Blackburn's Asians are mostly Muslim and the invasion of Iraq had a major impact on political life here; though Labour has recovered a lot of ground in recent years, the LibDems continue to have a moderate amount of success in some Asian wards. It's unlikely that Blackburn will be quite the media circus it was in 2005, though there will be shades of it with the mother of extradited hacker Gary McKinnon almost certainly wasting £500 in the town. There's a decent chance that Straw will poll a higher share of the vote than 2005 though quite what the majority will be is a little uncertain.

Blackpool North & Cleveleys - Labour majority 8.5% over Conservative

The character of this constituency has been changed quite considerably by boundary changes; the Labour voting port of Fleetwood has been removed and replaced with some Blackpool suburbs that are not so friendly to the Party. The swing needed for this seat to fall is now at the lower end of swings predicted by most polls and the result is likely to be quite close. The good news for Labour is that the swing here in 2005 was tiny - more evidence (were it needed) of the massive longterm swing away from the Tories in this once ultra-Tory seaside resort. The bad news is that the 2007 local elections in Blackpool were nothing short of appalling. Labour will hope that this was more down to local anger at the failure of Blackpool to land itself the Super Casino (which was awarded to Manchester, but was scrapped early in the Brown premiership) than a sign that the Blackpool Tories have finally turned the corner.



Obviously this will take a while. I'll keep adding to it as and when.

[redcommander]

Is there realistically any chance of the Conservatives being near or at their pre-1997 MP level in Scotland?

[Hash]

Is there realistically any chance of the Conservatives being near or at their pre-1997 MP level in Scotland?

No.

[Peter]

Is there realistically any chance of the Conservatives being near or at their pre-1997 MP level in Scotland?

They had 11 MPs out of 72. It might be just about possible, but it would be a high water mark as opposed to anything else - they would almost certainly have a very good majority nationally if it happened.

[afleitch]

Is there realistically any chance of the Conservatives being near or at their pre-1997 MP level in Scotland?

They had 11 MPs out of 72. It might be just about possible, but it would be a high water mark as opposed to anything else - they would almost certainly have a very good majority nationally if it happened.

On a 'ratio' they require 9 seats now to equal that tally. They are focusing on 11 seats. At most however I think they could win about 6.

[Hash]

The swing to the Tories is, iirc, much smaller in Scotland than in England.

[afleitch]

The swing to the Tories is, iirc, much smaller in Scotland than in England.

Always worth bearing in mind when looking at polls too. Labours GB lead in 2005% was 3% but the Tories were ahead (just) in England alone. I think the swing to the Tories in Wales however will be quite high.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I think the swing to the Tories in Wales however will be quite high.

Depends on turnout in The Valleys, to an extent. But the swing will be high in the coastal suburbs and (or so I reckon) in Anglophone rural areas. The results in most Powys towns in 2008 were... how should I put this... interesting.

[redcommander]

How many seats is UKIP competitive in? I know Farage is running against the Speaker of the Commons, but will they be able to have any MP's in the next Parliament?