British General Election Constituency Predictions

[Verily]

How many seats is UKIP competitive in? I know Farage is running against the Speaker of the Commons, but will they be able to have any MP's in the next Parliament?

None, and no.

Their biggest problem, of course, is that their best seats are also strongly Conservative.

And that their vote is very evenly distributed. While the Greens and BNP (and Respect) are much weaker nationally, UKIP's best result in 2005 was Boston and Skegness, where they won just under 10% of vote. Compare that to 17% for the BNP in Barking or 22% for the Greens in Brighton Pavilion (or 36% for Respect in Bethnal Green and Bow).

[Torie]

I think the swing to the Tories in Wales however will be quite high.

Depends on turnout in The Valleys, to an extent. But the swing will be high in the coastal suburbs and (or so I reckon) in Anglophone rural areas. The results in most Powys towns in 2008 were... how should I put this... interesting.

What is driving a bigger swing in Wales than nationally?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What is driving a bigger swing in Wales than nationally?

The Tories have given Wales a bit more attention of late than they had done for quite a while (this has happened before; in the late 1970s) and memories of the last Tory government are fading outside the sort of places that would rather drink battery acid than vote Tory (the Tories will be lucky to poll as much as 10% in most of The Valleys). They're also the main opposition party in the National Assembly now that Labour and Plaid are in coalition, meaning that they get the additional media coverage that goes with that. Basically, there's always going to be an opportunity for a non-socialist, non-nationalist party to do very well in certain parts of Wales and the LibDems are too weak to be able to exploit this.

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

Part III of my predictions.

-- Conservative targets on a swing of 2%-2.5% --

39. BIRMINGHAM EDGBASTON - Has a full slate of Tory councillors, I think.  CON GAIN

40. STAFFORD - David Cameron's first parliamentary contest.  Labour collapsed in Staffordshire last year.  CON GAIN

41. ANGUS - Close between the Tories and SNP but the Conservatives are more organised here than in Perth.  CON GAIN

42. BROXTOWE - Good Tory performance here at local level.  CON GAIN

43. CHIPPENHAM - Brand-new seat which collects together all the Lib Dem-supporting areas in Wiltshire.  LD HOLD

44. BURTON - Labour remain strong in Burton-on-Trent but will be outvoted by Tory Uttoxeter and the villages.  CON GAIN

45. BRIGHTON KEMPTOWN - Probably Labour's strongest remaining seat in Brighton, but they have lost ground here.  CON GAIN

-- Conservative targets on a swing of 2.5%-3% --

46. BURY NORTH - The Labour MP is in disgrace, a casualty of the expenses scandal.  Labour have selected an Asian woman from Manchester which won't go down well in Bury.  CON GAIN

47. REDDITCH - Former Home Secretary Jacqui Smith will lose her seat if the local results are anything to go by.  CON GAIN

48. RUGBY - A new seat but Labour have lost ground here.  CON GAIN

49. PENDLE - A recipient of the Ashcroft millions, allegedly.  The BNP are a factor here.  CON GAIN

50. WOLVERHAMPTON SOUTH WEST - Enoch Powell's old seat.  The Tory vote has fallen continuously here since 1992, but in 2005 may have been affected by racial voting patterns - the candidate was an Asian woman.  Local results here have been mixed but the Tories did very well at the last local election in 2008.  Will be close, but: CON GAIN

51. CARMARTHEN WEST AND PEMBROKESHIRE SOUTH - Gained by the Tories at the last Assembly elections.  CON GAIN

52. SOUTH RIBBLE - The Tories have performed very well here at local level.  CON GAIN

53. DERBYSHIRE SOUTH - See South Ribble.   CON GAIN

54. BRISTOL NORTH WEST - The boundary changes in Bristol mean that this is now the Tories' Bristol target seat.  Labour have performed poorly here.  CON GAIN

55. DUMFRIES AND GALLOWAY - This was a battle royal in 2005 between two sitting MPs, but Labour emerged victorious when the music stopped.  This time I fancy that result to be reversed.  CON GAIN

56. TAMWORTH - The Tories are dominant on Tamworth council and gained all six county council seats last year.  CON GAIN

-- Conservative targets on a swing of 3%-3.5% --

57. TORBAY - At local level this yo-yos between the Tories and Lib Dems.  The Tories currently hold the elected mayoralty and performed well at the last local elections, but this does mean that they now have the poisoned chalice of controlling the council.  Will probably be one of the first marginal seats to declare.  LD HOLD

58. CLEETHORPES - Not sure how this was ever in the Labour column in the first place, even though it does include the port of Immingham.  CON GAIN

59. SUTTON AND CHEAM - See Carshalton and Wallington above.  However, Sutton and Cheam has a bigger LD majority and may be a tougher nut to crack.  LD HOLD

60. SWINDON NORTH - The two Swindon seats will stand or fall together.  CON GAIN

61. WESTMINSTER NORTH - The boundary changes and local election results are not encouraging for Labour.  CON GAIN

62. WORCESTER - Local results here have been poor for the Tories but I would still expect them to gain.  CON GAIN

63. CORNWALL NORTH - The LD MP is coming to the end of his first term and can expect a boost from that.  LD HOLD

64. HARROW EAST - The best Tory areas move out in the boundary changes, but local results in the rest of the seat have been good for them.  CON GAIN

-- Conservative targets on a swing of 3.5%-4% --

65. RICHMOND PARK - Susan Kramer's seat.  An epic fail in the Tory selection of Zac Goldsmith.  LD HOLD

66. GREAT YARMOUTH - Poor Labour performances here at local level and UKIP are a factor.  CON GAIN

67. CHEADLE - The Tories performed poorly in the 2005 by-election and the boundary changes are unfavourable.  LD HOLD

68. ELTHAM - Local election results here have been mixed.  Will be close.  LAB HOLD

69. BRIGG AND GOOLE - The Tories lost control of North Lincolnshire council at the last local elections, but the neighbouring Sc**nthorpe MP Eliot Morley is in disgrace over the expenses scandal, and that may rub off here.  CON GAIN

[Filuwaúrdjan]

39. BIRMINGHAM EDGBASTON - Has a full slate of Tory councillors, I think.  CON GAIN

It does, though it's questionable how much that matters in Birmingham. More to the point is that it's the sort of constituency that Labour have won largely because of large numbers of swing voters.

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That because she's Asian, because she's from Manchester or both?

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Surprisingly little of Powell's constituency is actually in the post 1974 Wolves SW (will have to double check to be entirely sure of how much or how little), but it includes a lot of families who lived in his constituency when he represented it, often living white-flight suburbs Tettenhall.

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

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That because she's Asian, because she's from Manchester or both?

Mainly because she's from Manchester, half an hour away on the tram.  It's worth mentioning that the two previous MPs Alistair Burt and David Chaytor were both from Bury.  (Having said that, the Tory candidate is a Yorkshireman although he lives up on the hill in Tottington.)

Bury has a lower Asian population than the other Lancashire mill towns but there's much less ghettoisation there than in places like Oldham.  Maryam Khan (the Labour candidate in question) represents Longsight on Manchester city council - that's the sort of ghetto area I mean and there's not really anywhere in Bury like that.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

If I remember rightly, she's Afzal Khan's daughter.

[Hash]

I don't think Angus will be a Conservative gain. Polls in Scotland, iirc, show the Tory vote stagnating at or slightly above 2005 levels while the SNP are making sizeable gains from 2005, where they only polled 18% or so.

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

Part IV

-- Conservative targets on a swing of 4%-4.5% --

70. PORTSMOUTH SOUTH - The Lib Dem MP Mike Hancock is well dug in and the Lib Dems now control Portsmouth council.  LD HOLD

71. BEDFORD - The Labour MP is standing down.  CON GAIN

72. STEVENAGE - Labour have been dominant in local elections here for years, but are now starting to slip.  Barbara Follett is standing down.   CON GAIN

73. HENDON - Good Tory performances in Barnet council elections.  CON GAIN

74. CHATHAM AND AYLESFORD - Labour MP standing down and local results have been mixed.  CON GAIN

75. BRENTFORD AND ISLEWORTH - Labour have performed poorly here and the MP has been caught up in the expenses scandal.  CON GAIN

76. BRADFORD WEST - One of only two constituencies to swing to the Conservatives in 1997.  All three main parties have selected Asian candidates and the local Asian elders will decide this one.  The BNP are also a factor.  LAB HOLD

77. ROSSENDALE AND DARWEN - Rossendale swings wildly between Conservative and Labour at local level, but the Tories are on top at the moment.  Darwen - very much a local town for local people - has been taken over by a localist movement.  CON GAIN

78. HAMMERSMITH - The seat at which Labour and Conservative draw level.  A new seat which presently has a Tory MP (although he is moving to the ultra-safe new Chelsea and Fulham).  Hammersmith and Fulham is becoming a flagship Tory council.  CON GAIN

79. BLACKPOOL NORTH AND CLEVELEYS - Very good Tory performance at local level and the MP is standing down.  CON GAIN

80. HALIFAX - The BNP are a factor here, but the Labour MP is at the end of her first term and the Labour vote has generally held up.  LAB HOLD

81. LANCASTER AND FLEETWOOD - Currently has a Tory MP but he is moving to the new safe seat of Wyre and Preston North.  There is a very large Green vote at local level but Labour may be starting to eat into this.  Against that, the Labour MP is standing down.  Will be close, but: LAB HOLD

82. DEWSBURY - In the 2006 locals the BNP topped the poll here.  I can't see the anti-BNP vote crystallising behind the Labour MP Shahid Malik, even though he is at the end of his first term.  CON GAIN

83. DUDLEY SOUTH - The Tories have a strong majority on Dudley council, and this is also one of the few areas where UKIP amount to anything.  CON GAIN

-- Conservative targets on a swing of 5% --

84. NORTHAMPTON NORTH - Technically a three-way marginal, but after the hash the Lib Dems have made of running Northampton council the yellow horse can be ruled out.  The Tories are best placed for a gain.  CON GAIN

85. EDINBURGH SOUTH - A three-way marginal which any of the three main parties could win.  However, the Lib Dems are better placed as they hold this seat in the Scottish Parliament and the Conservatives are further back.  LIB DEM GAIN

86. WARRINGTON SOUTH - Helen Southworth is standing down and Labour's local base has been eroded.  CON GAIN

87. TRURO AND FALMOUTH - An open seat in Cornwall.  Good Tory performance at local level.  CON GAIN

88. WIRRAL SOUTH - The Labour MP is standing down, and Labour never had a local government base here to begin with.  CON GAIN

89. SOUTHPORT - The Lib Dems are still gaining local seats here from the Conservatives.  LD HOLD

90. LINCOLN - Labour have collapsed here with the Tories taking control of Lincoln council, and the boundary changes are unfavourable.  CON GAIN

91. LEICESTERSHIRE NORTH WEST - The Labour MP sadly died on Boxing Day.  The BNP are very strong here and Labour were wiped out at last year's county council elections.  CON GAIN

92. WYRE FOREST - Held since 2001 by Health Concern MP Dr Richard Taylor.  Taylor is an old man, Health Concern have lost ground to the Tories at local level and the Lib Dems are not standing down in Taylor's favour this time, but I fancy Dr Taylor to hold on.  HEALTH CONCERN HOLD

93. GEDLING - Nottingham suburbia which has outgrown the city boundary.  Similar to Broxtowe although Labour are better placed here.  CON GAIN

94. HALESOWEN AND ROWLEY REGIS - Deputy Speaker Sylvia Heal is standing down and I'm not entirely sure how the Conservatives managed to lose a seat containing Halesowen in the first place.  CON GAIN

95. NUNEATON - A strong area for the BNP and the Conservatives have started to stumble at local level.  LAB HOLD

96. OCHIL AND PERTHSHIRE SOUTH - Technically on the Tory target list, but they are in third place and this will be between Labour and the SNP.  The Labour MP is coming to the end of his first term, while the SNP are again fielding a famous name in Annabelle Ewing.  SNP GAIN

-- Conservative targets on a swing of 5.5% --

97. LEEDS NORTH WEST - A three-way marginal gained by the Lib Dems in 2005 from third place.  The boundary changes reduce the huge student population and bring in Yeadon, making the constituency slightly more white and working-class.  However, the Lib Dems still win the ward covering Yeadon, there are no Labour councillors in this seat and I fancy Greg Mulholland to hold on.  LD HOLD

98. BRECON AND RADNORSHIRE - Enormous rural seat in mid-Wales.  The Lib Dem vote in the Assembly has held up here.  LD HOLD

99. CAMBORNE AND REDRUTH - Three-way Cornish marginal.  The Labour vote in Camborne has collapsed in the Tories' favour.  The Tories have not suffered a repeat of the problems with their 2005 candidate selection.  The Lib Dem MP Julia Goldsworthy is coming to the end of her first term but has spent a large amount of time on TV reality shows.  Will be close, but: CON GAIN

100. WARWICK AND LEAMINGTON - The boundary changes here shore up the Labour majority.  LAB HOLD

101. DOVER - The Labour vote has collapsed at local level - only the extinct Kent coalfield and the asylum-seeker effect has kept this seat in the red column.  CON GAIN

102. KEIGHLEY - Good Tory performances here and the Labour MP is standing down.  The BNP are strong here.  CON GAIN

103. NEWTON ABBOT - New seat based on the old Teignbridge.  Richard Younger-Ross is at the end of his first term, but against this his expenses have been questioned and the Tories gained county council seats here last year.  LD HOLD

104. DEVON NORTH - The Lib Dem vote in Barnstaple and Ilfracombe is strong and should outvote the villages.  LD HOLD

105. POPLAR AND LIMEHOUSE - Oh goody.  This East End seat has been Labour since at least 1950.  George Galloway is moving on from Bethnal Green and Bow and standing here, and can appeal to the large Muslim population.  The Tories have made big local gains in the Isle of Dogs and along the rapidly gentrifying riverfront.  Anything could happen here, but when the music stops I suspect that Labour's Jim Fitzpatrick will be the last man standing.  LAB HOLD

106. STIRLING - Traditionally this was a Tory seat, but their vote collapsed in 2007 and the SNP gained the seat in the Scottish Parliament.  I doubt that the Tories can come back from that.  SNP GAIN

-- Conservative targets on a swing of 6% --

107. PLYMOUTH SUTTON AND DEVONPORT - Plymouth council has oscillated wildly between Labour and Tory.  Labour have lost lots of council seats but their vote hasn't collapsed too badly here as the Lib Dems are very weak in Plymouth.  LAB HOLD

108. DUDLEY NORTH - The two Dudley seats will stand or fall together.  CON GAIN

109. ELMET AND ROTHWELL - This will depend on whether the Conservative Wetherby and villages can outvote the Labour Garforth and outlying Leeds estates.  The Tories start a long way behind but the Labour MP is standing down.  CON GAIN

110. READING WEST - Labour's Martin Salter is standing down and Labour have performed poorly on Reading council.  CON GAIN

111. TYNEMOUTH - Labour lost the North Tyneside mayoralty recently but they have a big lead here.  LAB HOLD

112. MORECAMBE AND LUNESDALE - The Tories have made gains here at local level, including gaining the railway town of Carnforth, but Geraldine Smith should hold on.  LAB HOLD

113. PUDSEY - Labour hold only three of the twelve council seats in this constituency and the MP is retiring.  CON GAIN

114. CORNWALL SOUTH EAST - Another open seat in Cornwall, although the Tories start further back than in Truro.  CON GAIN

115. IPSWICH - Labour still hold council seats here and their local vote has generally held up.  LAB HOLD

116. BOLTON WEST - My constituency and the seat which gives the Conservatives a majority according to the official Ralling and Thrasher notional estimates.  Labour have gained council seats here during the last few years, and their majority has been shored up by the boundary changes which move working-class Atherton in and middle-class Over Hulton out of the seat.  Ruth Kelly is standing down.  Labour have selected local trade union official Julie Hilling, while the Tory candidate is Susan Williams, an Irish woman (like Ruth Kelly) living in Altrincham and leader of Trafford council.  Not sure what the Bolton connection is there.  LAB HOLD

[Silent Hunter]

Until we get a better indication of what the polls are doing post-debate, then I think it's fair to say that all seat predictions are pretty much up in the air.

[Democratic Hawk]

Interesting analysis , Andrew, but the most recent local election results don't necessarily fortell what is going to happen in the parliamentary election given differential turnout

Until we get a better indication of what the polls are doing post-debate, then I think it's fair to say that all seat predictions are pretty much up in the air.

Yep, Cameron ain't there yet, and God willing, he never will be. I'm not sure what's greater my personal disdain for him or my political disdain for his party (most of it, anyway)

[Democratic Hawk]

City of Durham - Labour 7.4% over LibDem.

The situation here is quite confused; the swing needed for a LibDem gain is small enough for a gain to be possible even without the massive boon for LibDem hopes in university towns given to them by the 2001-2005 Parliament and the seat is widely regarded as being vulnerable. But this is another polarised constituency; the City proper is a well-educated, professional and white-collar island in a vast proletarian sea and there's enough of the latter within the boundary of the constituency to allow Blackman-Woods to poll a decent 47% in 2005. The LibDems have done well here in local elections, but then this was also true of 2001-2005 and they don't seem to have done much better this Parliament. It may also be worth mentioning the theory that Labour will regain quite a bit of ground in areas where large numbers of votes were lost to the Kennedy-led LibDems in 2005; if this happens (fwiw I'm not convinced, at least not as regards the non-Muslim end of things), then Labour's position here is stronger than first impressions indicate. Overall, I think this is mostly a turnout battle; national factors may be important, but it isn't certain quite how they'll impact here.

Surprising as it may seem there was actually a small swing to Labour in the 2008 unitary elections on the 2007 city council elections. The most salient issues in 2005 working against Labour were top-up tuition fees and the war in Iraq

[You kip if you want to...]

National seat totals after part eleven:
Conservative - 316 (+106) (inc. Speaker Bercow)
Labour - 246 (-103)
Liberal Democrats - 55 (-7)
[/i]


Hung Parliament - Conservatives short by 10

These are approximate, since i'm using various sources for notional majorities. Also, changes to predictions may follow later.

And a link to the whole prediction map:
http://img121.imageshack.us/img121/1582/2010prediction.png

Not that far off as far as seat totals go.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

A quick review of the few predictions I made...

North East

Blaydon - Labour 13.7% over LibDem.

Probably safer than the majority indicates. Anderson polled over 50% in 2005 and the Tory vote shrunk to what must be its absolute core (only 8%). This is quite a polarised constituency (an uneasy combination of industrial towns and villages and posh Newcastle suburbs) and it isn't clear where any extra LibDem votes might come from. The LibDems have also had some candidate problems. It seems likely that the seat will only be lost if things go dreadfully for Labour.

Even if things had gone dreadfully for Labour, we'd have held Blaydon. It is now a safe seat again.

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Labour held on. National factors had no impact at all, by the look of it.

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Labour won, but not by much - thuse proving the size of Kumar's personal vote. He'd have won by miles had he lived.

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Labour won here, and it wasn't ultra-close.

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A Tory gain by less than 1%.

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Now, here, I was wrong. This wasn't close and it wasn't determined by the fate of the parties nationally. And there wasn't even much laughable ticket-splitting; Labour made massive gains in the local elections here, even winning Whitley Bay.

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Ended up as an easy Labour hold. The third seat to declare as it happens... and the BBC's comments before the declaration seemed to indicate that we'd lost here; I was so depressed, as you can imagine. And then, after the declaration, both relieved and pissed off at the BBC...

I should add that had I carried on with this, I'd have added Redcar under 'not only, but also' as it was clear the LibDems were making a big effort there and had made striking gains in local by-elections. I'm not sure if I'd have called it for them, though I would have called Newcastle North for them by that point the campaign.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

North West

Barrow & Furness - Labour majority 12.5% over Conservative

One of three seats in 'Cumbria' where the work of the boundary commission has resulted in a weaker Labour position, Barrow & Furness is also an open seat; right-wing former cabinet minister John Hutton is retiring after four terms. The boundary changes might weaken Labour, but not greatly and not by enought to change the character of the constituency. Its largest town is Barrow-in-Furness, a shipbuilding town in Lancashire-across-the-Sands dependent on defense manufacturing; especially all things regarding nuclear submarines. Barrow is Labour's strongest part of the constituency but voted Tory in the 1980s because of Labour's then unilateralist stance (it probably didn't help that the otherwise well-regarded Albert Booth, the defeated incumbent in 1983, was a member of CND). The other towns are Ulverston, Dalton-in-Furness and Broughton-in-Furness. Ulverston and Dalton are both more capable of voting for either party, while Broughton (brought into the constituency by boundary changes) is strongly Tory. Labour have done poorly in local elections here (in part due to a splinter party) but that might not mean a great deal; Labour have underperfomed in local elections in this odd corner of the world for over thirty years. Boundary changes and the retirement of Hutton can only be good news for the Tories, but the government's committment to the Trident weapon's system is somewhat unlikely to hurt Labour in Barrow. Although the majority (just within range of the swing suggested by most polls) seems to indicate the importance of national swing here, it's possible - though by no means certain - that other factors will be of more importance.

A Labour hold with barely a swing at all. The key point of the prediction is in bold...

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Straw polled higher than 2005 and narrowly increased his majority.

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Tory gain; the local elections did portend to something, in this case. Blackpool South was fairly close as well.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

And testing someone elses predictions... (I wouldn't be doing this if some weren't very good - I'm not that much of a bastard).

10. WELLINGBOROUGH - The boundary changes almost wipe out the Tory majority but this is a safer seat than it looks. CON HOLD

9. ROCHESTER AND STROOD - Bob Marshall-Andrews is standing down and nearly lost his seat last time. The Tory candidate rejoices in the name of Mark Reckless. CON HOLD

8. DUNDEE EAST - The SNP now hold both Dundee seats in the Scottish Parliament and Labour are falling behind. SNP HOLD

7. SHIPLEY - The Tories' only seat in West Yorkshire. They have a big vote in Bingley which should see them through. CON HOLD

6. FINCHLEY AND GOLDERS GREEN - A Labour seat converted to Tory in the boundary changes. Rudi Vis is standing down. The spiritual home of Thatcherism although it was never the safest of seats for her. CON HOLD

All correct.

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Alas, no.

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All correct.

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All correct; the Somerton & Frome prediction being a very good one.

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All correct, though Drew nearly hung on in Stroud; quite a personal vote he had.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Part II of my predictions.

-- Conservative targets on a swing of 1%-1.5% --

17. BASILDON SOUTH AND THURROCK EAST - May be a slightly tougher nut for the Conservatives than its position on the list suggests.  However, CON GAIN

18. EALING CENTRAL AND ACTON - A new seat and a three-way marginal, but the Lib Dems have no local council presence.  CON GAIN

19. CITY OF CHESTER - The Tories have performed well at local level here.  CON GAIN

20. HEREFORD AND HEREFORDSHIRE SOUTH - Whether the Lib Dems hold or the Tories win will depend which of the two parts of the constituency's name outvotes the other.  Will be close, but: CON GAIN

21. COLNE VALLEY - Three-way marginal and local results have been mixed.  Labour MP standing down.  CON GAIN

All correct.

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Correct, but Morgan nearly held on; to my surprise. She was a very good MP.

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Wrong, but this was unusually close for a seat in the South East (which, in general, felt like a re-run of the 1980s).

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Both correct.

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Wrong; Brake actually increased his majority.

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Both right. Corby was depressingly close; had Hope (massively damaged by the expenses scandal) retired, I think that vapid woman would have lost. Oh well.

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Good call, actually.

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All correct.

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Correct (and not close). Clarke only just clung on to his deposit.

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Correct.

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Wrong; Labour's local strength here seems to have been deceptive.

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Comfortable Tory gain. Plaid came fourth.

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A very, very surprising from-third Tory gain. This despite their candidate 'issues'.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

39. BIRMINGHAM EDGBASTON - Has a full slate of Tory councillors, I think.  CON GAIN

Yes, but why vote Tory when you can have Gisela? Second most surprising result of the night for me, and the most surprising outside Ulster; you know how surprised cartoon characters do that jaw-drop thing? I did that for about twenty seconds when I heard there was a recount on here.

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Yes, and it wasn't even close.

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SNP hold.

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Yes, though Palmer's personal vote nearly saved him.

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All correct.

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Correct, but relatively close.

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Not even slightly close.

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Correct

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Correct. Once again, freakishly close to the national percentages.

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It was close, but the Tories did gain it.

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All correct.

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Wrong; a big win for Russell Brown who must have led in most of Galloway this time. Politics aside, there aren't words to describe how lovely this area is.

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On a big swing, yeah.

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Correct (and, yes, an early declarer).

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I share your confusion, but that's at an end now.

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Last minute revelations about the Tory candidate appear to have saved the LibDems here.

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Yes and not close.

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A very surprising Labour hold.

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All correct.

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Goldsmith won

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Both right

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A very good call, there.

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Yeah, this wasn't close.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

70. PORTSMOUTH SOUTH - The Lib Dem MP Mike Hancock is well dug in and the Lib Dems now control Portsmouth council.  LD HOLD

71. BEDFORD - The Labour MP is standing down.  CON GAIN

72. STEVENAGE - Labour have been dominant in local elections here for years, but are now starting to slip.  Barbara Follett is standing down.   CON GAIN

73. HENDON - Good Tory performances in Barnet council elections.  CON GAIN

74. CHATHAM AND AYLESFORD - Labour MP standing down and local results have been mixed.  CON GAIN

75. BRENTFORD AND ISLEWORTH - Labour have performed poorly here and the MP has been caught up in the expenses scandal.  CON GAIN

All correct, though Hendon was very tight.

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Marsha Singh has clearly patched up matters with certain people who matter locally, as he increased his majority.

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Correct

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Wrong. The Tories might have wished they picked another candidated, but this wasn't all that close. I suspect that some of the policies of said council helped to turn out Labour voters here, actually.

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Yep

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Excellent call

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Wrong, but only by 333 votes.

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Correct. Pretty clear that Malik would have won were it not for boundary changes.

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Yeah, not even close.

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Tory gain, but a close three-way marginal.

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Sky declare it as such, but, somehow, Labour held on. I don't understand either.

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Yep

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Another excellent call.

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No, a Labour hold. Which is both surprising and very interesting.

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All correct

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He would have won had the LibDems supported him, but they didn't and he didn't.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Cont.

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Coaker held on; yet another personal vote in action.

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Correct, though fairly close. Halesowen outvoted Rowley Regis.

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No, a Tory gain.

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Ewing has a famous name, but a hilariously bad electoral record. Which has continued.

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Big win for Mulholland.

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The farmer won.

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Yeah, a very good call there. The LibDems got very angry at the returning officer for refusing an additional recount.

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Yes, but not by enough.

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Yes

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Correct. I think Cryer would have done what her husband did in '79 had she stood again, but she's pretty old now.

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Richard Younger-Ross was called the victory by the TV stations, before they realised they'd made an error. Con gain.

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We Are Not Anglicans! hold.

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And indeed he was.

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Labour hold. Btw, this was certainly not a traditional Tory seat.

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Labour did not do well in the southern ports. Con gain.

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Everyone said that about Dudley, and everyone was wrong. This went to the wire, but Austin clung on.

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Both correct, Salter's immense personal vote showing in the swing.

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Good call.

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Smith narrowly lost.

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Both correct.

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No, a narrow Tory gain.

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A Labour hold by 92 votes.

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

Thanks Al.  You've reminded me that I never posted the rest of my predictions - after Cleggmania they suddenly didn't seem very good.

The good news is that I won the prediction competition I drew this up for with 584/649, four seats better than William Hill.

-- Lib Dem targets --

1. GUILDFORD - The boundary changes are not favourable to the Conservatives, but their MP is coming to the end of her first term.  Another photofinish is in prospect.  CON HOLD

2. SOLIHULL - A shock Lib Dem gain in 2005 and the boundary changes are not major.  The Lib Dems are still gaining council seats here.  LD GAIN

3. ROCHDALE - Gained by the Lib Dems from Labour in 2005 and has a long Liberal tradition.  Surprisingly Cyril Smith is still alive and I would submit that he is not a good bet for Celebrity Deathwatch.  Paul Rowen is at the end of his first term.  LIB DEM GAIN Wrong - Labour hold even though Gordon Brown managed to insult the entire family town.

4. OXFORD EAST - The Lib Dems threw the kitchen sink at this in 2005 and came up just short.  Since then Labour have gained ground in the city at the expense of the Lib Dems and Greens, and the Greens have had selection problems.  I think the Lib Dems' chance has passed here.  LAB HOLD

5. EDINBURGH SOUTH - Covered above at Conservative target 85.  LD GAIN Still a Labour hold

6. HAMPSTEAD AND KILBURN - This is a new seat covering much of Sarah Teather's abolished Brent East constituency.  Teather is not standing here in favour of contesting the safe Labour seat of Brent Central.  Without Teather as the candidate the Lib Dems will struggle, and Glenda Jackson is standing again.  LAB HOLD

7. EASTBOURNE - Not the sort of seat you'd expect given that the town is nicknamed God's Waiting Room.  Ever since Ian Gow was blown up by the IRA the seat and the council have teetered between Lib Dem and Conservative on a knife-edge with the smallest of majorities.  However, the Tories tend to win the parliamentary contests and I fancy them again.  CON HOLD Wrong

8. ISLINGTON SOUTH AND FINSBURY - Politically similar to Oxford East but with a very different population - this is a seat of Guardianista urban intellectuals similar to Hornsey and Wood Green which fell in 2005.  The Lib Dems have lost ground on Islington council recently but I fancy them for the gain this time.  LD GAIN Wrong - and Labour gained control of Islington council to boot

9. WATFORD - Covered above at Conservative target 38.  LD GAIN

10. EALING CENTRAL AND ACTON - Covered above at Conservative target 18.  CON GAIN

11. ABERDEEN SOUTH - The Lib Dems have always won this seat in the Scottish Parliament and Labour have done well to hold on at Westminster up to now.  LD GAIN Wrong

12. DEVON CENTRAL - Local results here are not encouraging for the Lib Dems in this new seat.  CON HOLD

13. MEON VALLEY - Another new seat but much of the Lib Dem strength derives from the area formerly in Mark Oaten's Winchester seat.  With Oaten in disgrace the Conservatives should have no trouble holding on.  CON HOLD

14. WESTON-SUPER-MARE - A Tory gain in 2005 and the Lib Dems have lost ground at local level.  CON HOLD

15. LUDLOW - A shock Lib Dem gain in 2001 which was reversed in 2005.  The Lib Dems have performed poorly here at local level.  CON HOLD

16. DORSET WEST - The Lib Dems threw everything at Oliver Letwin last time and he increased his majority.  I have no reason to suspect a gain here.  CON HOLD

17. EDINBURGH NORTH AND LEITH - I hadn't realised how strong the Lib Dem vote here in 2005 was.  Labour still hold the Scottish Parliament seat and Edinburgh South is an easier target for the Lib Dems.  LAB HOLD

18. DEVON WEST AND TORRIDGE - Lost to the Tories in 2005 and there were big gains here for the Tories on Devon county council last year.  CON HOLD

19. WELLS - One of those seats that is consistently marginal.  The Conservative MP has had some dubious expense claims.  CON HOLD Wrong

20. TOTNES - Anthony Steen is a casualty of the expenses scandal and as a result the seat is open.  Totnes town has a counter-culture ethic although it's quite small.  LD GAIN

21. NEWBURY - Lost in 2005 and the Lib Dems have lost ground locally.  CON HOLD

22. WORCESTERSHIRE WEST - This seat comes up every time in the list of possible Lib Dem gains, but this time it could happen.  The Lib Dem vote in Malvern has held up well and Sir Michael Spicer is retiring.  LD GAIN Wrong

23. BOURNEMOUTH WEST - The retiring Sir John Butterfill has not covered himself in glory although the Lib Dems lost control of Bournemouth council recently.  This seat has been Tory since 1950.  CON HOLD

24. CITY OF DURHAM - The Lib Dems ran Labour close here in 2005, and could finish the job as the miners' vote slowly dies off.  LD GAIN Wrong

25. NORWICH SOUTH - This is Charles Clarke's seat and includes the University of East Anglia.  The Lib Dems were close behind Clarke in 2005, while the Green Party are now the largest group on Norwich city council and made big gains in last year's county elections.  This is the Greens' no 2 target and they are pouring a lot of effort into it.  With the divided opposition that will result I can see Charles Clarke holding on with an extremely low share of the vote.  LAB HOLD Wrong

26. CHELMSFORD - A new seat covering the whole of Chelmsford town where the Lib Dems are very strong at local level.  LD GAIN Wrong

27. DORSET NORTH - The local Lib Dems have better targets.  CON HOLD

28. FILTON AND BRADLEY STOKE - A completely new seat formed from parts of the current Bristol NW (Lab) and Northavon (LD).  This is a three-way marginal with differing notional results where pretty much anything could happen.  However, I predict a notional CON HOLD.

29. LIVERPOOL WAVERTREE - The boundary changes turn this into the Lib Dems' best prospect in Liverpool for many a year.  The Labour MP is standing down and Labour have made a poor candidate selection in Luciana Berger, a 28-year-old Londoner who had never heard of Bill Shankly.  On the other side of the coin, the Lib Dems run Liverpool city council and their administration is not popular.  Nevertheless this is the only Lib Dem target for miles around.  LD GAIN Wrong - although I was right about the council

30. LEICESTER SOUTH - Gained from Labour at a 2004 by-election but Labour took the seat back the following year.  Labour took control of Leicester city council in 2007 and the Lib Dems here have clearly peaked.  LAB HOLD

31. DERBY NORTH - Three-way marginal.  The Labour MP is standing down.  The Conservatives have a poor candidate and no local government base but apparently are the bookies' favourites.  The Lib Dems have a strong local government base and have selected a long-serving Derby councillor; the Rallings and Thrasher estimate may understate their strength here.  LD GAIN Labour held on

32. HARBOROUGH - Another seat which is perennially tipped as a Lib Dem gain.  The yellow party have run Oadby and Wigston council continuously since 1991, but the Conservatives tend to win as the villages in south-east Leicestershire outvote Oadby, Wigston and Market Harborough.  The long-serving Tory MP is standing again.  CON HOLD

33. BIRMINGHAM HALL GREEN - The new boundaries for Birmingham Hall Green bear very little resemblance to the old ones.  The old Hall Green was outer Birmingham and had a fair amount of Tory support; the new Hall Green is inner Birmingham and includes a lot of territory from the abolished Sparkbrook and Small Heath, which was one of the most Muslim constituencies in the country.  The current Labour MP for Sparkbrook and Small Heath is seeking re-election here.  This is the only Respect target outside London, the party holding three of the twelve council seats.  With Respect having strong support among the large Muslim population (though not enough to win) the Lib Dems will find it difficult to break down the Labour majority.  LAB HOLD

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

-- Other seats worth mentioning --

ARFON - A new seat combining the Plaid Cymru town of Caernarfon with the Labour city of Bangor from the abolished Conwy seat.  The Labour MP for Conwy is standing down and the current Plaid MP for Caernarfon is seeking re-election here.  PLAID CYMRU GAIN

BELFAST SOUTH - This is a majority Unionist seat, so quite how the SDLP managed to gain it in 2005 I'll never know.  If the DUP get their act together they should take it back.  DUP GAIN I didn't foresee the Shinners standing down

BETHNAL GREEN AND BOW - George Galloway is moving on and this should fall back into the Labour column with no trouble.  LAB GAIN

BRIGHTON PAVILION - The undisputed number 1 target for the Green Party and they are throwing the kitchen sink at this seat.  The Labour MP is standing down.  GREEN GAIN

BUCKINGHAM - UKIP leader Nigel Farage is having a tilt against the Speaker John Bercow.  In common with most of the country, the local UKIP don't know how to do local campaigns - they failed even to contest a council by-election here last month - and Bercow will romp home.  SPEAKER HOLD

CARLISLE - Has been Labour for many a long year but the boundary changes bring some Tory villages into the seat.  The Labour MP is standing down.  CON GAIN

CEREDIGION - A surprising Lib Dem gain from Plaid in 2005.  This is one of the most Welsh-speaking areas of Wales and my instinct is that Plaid should take the seat back.  PLAID CYMRU GAIN Error.

DOWN NORTH - The MP Lady Hermon has fallen out with the Ulster Unionists over their alliance with the Conservatives, and has left the party to stand as an independent.  (This means that there are now no Ulster Unionist MPs for the first time since ever.)  With this consituency's long-standing tradition of electing independent Unionists (see Bob McCartney and Jim Kilfedder) she should have little trouble being re-elected.  IND GAIN

KILMARNOCK AND LOUDOUN - Held by the SNP in the Scottish Parliament and Des Browne is standing down.  SNP GAIN

LIVINGSTON - The Labour MP Jim Devine has managed to become a casualty of the expenses scandal despite not even serving for a full Parliament - he won the by-election after Robin Cook died.  The SNP hold this seat at Holyrood.  SNP GAIN Both Labour holds

SEFTON CENTRAL - A new seat which combines the middle-class Liverpool satellite towns of Crosby and Maghull.  The Labour MP for Crosby is standing down and Labour have not done well here at local level.  CON GAIN Labour held on

SUNDERLAND CENTRAL - Traditionally Sunderland South is the first seat to declare, although there are local elections there this year so I don't expect that record to be kept up this time.  Sunderland South is abolished in the boundary changes so Sunderland Central will be the focus of attention.  While all the Sunderland seats are safe for Labour, the Tories were never wiped out on the council and there is a working-class Tory tradition in the city.  The new Sunderland Central combines most of those working-class Tory areas into one seat.  This will not be enough for Labour to lose, but if a recount is requested in Sunderland Central then the Tories have won a landslide.  I don't expect either of those things to happen.  LAB HOLD

WAVENEY - The Labour vote in Lowestoft has collapsed in recent years although the Tories start a long way behind.  CON GAIN

YNYS MON - High on the Plaid target list, but the Isle of Anglesey only changes hands when the MP stands down.  LAB HOLD

[Hash]

The swing to the LibDems in Ceredigion was quite surprising in its size.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The swing to the LibDems in Ceredigion was quite surprising in its size.

I love the contrast with Montgomery. Exhibit A: how to win in rural Wales. Exhibit B: how to lose in rural Wales.

[Sbane]

Al, do you have any idea what happened in Edgbaston. I would think a place like that would vote Tory in a year like this. Was it just a good Labour candidate versus a bad Conservative candidate?