Canada 2011 Official Thread

[Hatman 🍁]

Jack Layton is a secret Muslim!

[Marokai Backbeat]

His mustache is actually fake!

[Hatman 🍁]

The Toronto Star endorses the NDP

http://www.thestar.com/opinion/editorials/article/983376--toronto-star-endorses-the-ndp

I will buy a copy tomorrow, if I can. I'll be on a drive to Bancroft, ON to meet some family roughly halfway between here and Barrie, so hopefully I can get a copy somewhere.

[MaxQue]

La Presse/Toronto Star/Angus Reid

Cons: 37%
NDP: 33%
Libs: 22%

Quebec

NDP: 45%
Bloc: 26%
Libs: 16%
Cons: 13%

Ontario

Cons: 41%
NDP: 27%
Libs: 26%

British Columbia

Cons: 42%
NDP: 39%
Libs: 12%

Only 57% of the Liberal voters of 2008 plan to vote for Liberals in 2011.

[tpfkaw]

If it were found that John Boehner (or Steven Harper) had been discovered naked in a "massage parlor" by police, do you think the Atlas lefties would have pooh-poohed it quite so fast?

[MaxQue]

If it were found that John Boehner (or Steven Harper) had been discovered naked in a "massage parlor" by police, do you think the Atlas lefties would have pooh-poohed it quite so fast?

Well, Harper and Boehner are campaigning on moral values.
You know, campaigning on morals and being stuck in a moral scandal is hypocrisy.

To my knowledge, Layton never campaigned on moral values.
We are talking of a party which wants to legalise pot, please!

[tpfkaw]

If it were found that John Boehner (or Steven Harper) had been discovered naked in a "massage parlor" by police, do you think the Atlas lefties would have pooh-poohed it quite so fast?

Well, Harper and Boehner are campaigning on moral values.
You know, campaigning on morals and being stuck in a moral scandal is hypocrisy.

To my knowledge, Layton never campaigned on moral values.
We are talking of a party which wants to legalise pot, please!

He wanted to ban lap-dancing, so I'd say he deserves whatever's coming to him.

[Hatman 🍁]

Ah yes, let's bring out all the radical positions Layton had back in the 1990s...

One can easily do the same thing for Harper. But, I don't think I've brought any of what he has said up.

Also, which is it the Sun? Is Jack pro or anti-woman. Make up your mind.

[Meeker]

If it were found that John Boehner (or Steven Harper) had been discovered naked in a "massage parlor" by police, do you think the Atlas lefties would have pooh-poohed it quite so fast?

Probably not, but the right would react in the same way the left is reacting right now, so your critique isn't really one of those on the left but rather humanity in general. It's our nature to want to see the best in those that we support and care about and situations like these are no exception.

[tpfkaw]

Ah yes, let's bring out all the radical positions Layton had back in the 1990s...

Yes, the very same year as the massage parlor incident.

[Hatman 🍁]

Left wing municipal politicians can afford to be far more radical if they represent fairly left wing constituencies. Layton was very left wing on Toronto city council. He had positions that I would not even support. The same can be said about leftists on the Ottawa City Council (the few that are left). However, he leads a national party, which is actually a tent of various left wing/populist subgroups, and has moderated his views. He will moderate them even more if elected Prime Minister.

[cinyc]

I think yesterday was the last day for polling under Canadian law.  I guess pollsters will now have a very convenient excuse if their last poll (likely released Friday or Saturday) overstates NDP support.

[MaxQue]

If it were found that John Boehner (or Steven Harper) had been discovered naked in a "massage parlor" by police, do you think the Atlas lefties would have pooh-poohed it quite so fast?

Well, Harper and Boehner are campaigning on moral values.
You know, campaigning on morals and being stuck in a moral scandal is hypocrisy.

To my knowledge, Layton never campaigned on moral values.
We are talking of a party which wants to legalise pot, please!

He wanted to ban lap-dancing, so I'd say he deserves whatever's coming to him.

Well, the Sun is the Sun.
It is a right-wing newspaper.

About lap-dancing, I don't know.
True than banning it is against freedom.

But are those women are there by their own will?
Do they are really paid?

Those places are well-known forced prostitution places and are sometimes related to human smuggling.

I support legalizing prostitution, but there most be solid ways of insuring than the prostitutes are willing and are not used as a way of financing mafia or criminal groups.

My city is going under the trial of a criminal group, related to the Hell's Angels, which used prostitution as a way of financing themselves, from what I heard.

The world isn't black or white, wormyguy. The government isn't perfect, but neither are individuals and businesses. We must reach the equilibrium between government and businesses which provide the better well-being for the population with the least intrusion possible, which is another equilibrium in itself.

The perfect political system doesn't exist. Neither extremes are good.

[MaxQue]

I think yesterday was the last day for polling under Canadian law.  I guess pollsters will now have a very convenient excuse if their last poll (likely released Friday or Saturday) overstates NDP support.

I don't think so.

The law states than the last day for releasing polls is on Sunday, May 1st.
But I don't think there is anything about polling?

Earl, you work in that area, can you confirm?

EDIT: I want to add than Layton has not control over the party. His personal views can be different of the caucus or of the party members. They won't follow him mindlessly, I suppose. From the outside, parties seems united and always vote according to the party line in Chamber, but in caucus, it can be quite divided.

In the last years, we heard about fights in the Liberal and Conservatives caucuses. I suppose the same happens in BQ and NDP caucuses. Even, during the Liberals reign, about an intended bill which was dropped, since the caucus was not liking it. It is rumors, sure, but I suppose they aren't created out of thin air.

[2952-0-0]

It will be interesting to see how Ignatieff and Harper fully react tomorrow.

If they "unreservedly condemn this obvious piece of yellow journalism", then there will be less suspicion of dirty tricks. Canadians are already extremely cynical and this is the least they can expect.

If either do not then suspicion will fall on them.

My gut says this story is too blatant to gain traction among any undecided voters. If the rumours circulated for a week among Twitter before Layton responded then it may have worked.

[MaxQue]

My gut says this story is too blatant to gain traction among any undecided voters. If the rumours circulated for a week among Twitter before Layton responded then it may have worked.

It may backfire, too.
From what I hear around me, Duceppe attacks on Layton made some NDP-BQ undecided persons than I know choosing the NDP.

Another element is "Do voters care?"

[cinyc]

I think yesterday was the last day for polling under Canadian law.  I guess pollsters will now have a very convenient excuse if their last poll (likely released Friday or Saturday) overstates NDP support.

I don't think so.

The law states than the last day for releasing polls is on Sunday, May 1st.
But I don't think there is anything about polling?

I think you're right.  A 1994 report to Parliament said federal law prohibited disseminating new poll results in the final three days of an election campaign - but the last polls were conducted two and even one day before the election in 2008.  So that law must have been changed in the interim.

In any event, to the extent polls were sanctioned by newspapers and their biggest edition is a Saturday edition, I suspect that polling is complete.  Some pollsters (Nanos) will poll on Saturday - but I doubt many will poll much of Sunday.  Those who do not will have a very convenient excuse if NDP support craters.  But like I've said before, it might not, since last-minute allegations sometimes backfire.

[MaxQue]

I think yesterday was the last day for polling under Canadian law.  I guess pollsters will now have a very convenient excuse if their last poll (likely released Friday or Saturday) overstates NDP support.

I don't think so.

The law states than the last day for releasing polls is on Sunday, May 1st.
But I don't think there is anything about polling?

I think you're right.  A 1994 report to Parliament said federal law prohibited disseminating new poll results in the final three days of an election campaign - but the last polls were conducted two and even one day before the election in 2008.  So that law must have been changed in the interim.

Canada adopted a new Electoral Law in the end of the 90's.

[Foucaulf]

If it were found that John Boehner (or Steven Harper) had been discovered naked in a "massage parlor" by police, do you think the Atlas lefties would have pooh-poohed it quite so fast?

Of course? If I were that desperately against Harper, I would go on about the Conservatives paying people to write online comments supporting them and Harper's wife running off with a RCMP officer. Both are popular rumours (google), but no press outlet has reported them yet because they're just rumours. Same thing here, except Sun Media actually did it!

You can follow the Sun's narrative, but you choose to separate yourself from all others. Find articles from other press sources that don't repeat Layton factoids circa 90s.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I've been to a "massage parlor" before. Who. F**king. Cares.

[MaxQue]

I've been to a "massage parlor" before. Who. F**king. Cares.

Not me. He admitted it, too, which will kill that in the egg, normally.
People like honesty, I think.
He didn't tried to hide it.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

"Bawdy house"? Canada is so quaint.

I don't really get whose mind this would change at this point. Presumably conservative pearl-clutchers would be voting Tory (or Christian Heritage or whatever), and Liberal defectors are probably not going to be swayed by something this minor if they're pissed off enough at the Liberals to switch to the NDP. This seems somewhat reminiscent of the hail-mary "Aqua Buddha" or "There is no God!" last-minute ads that didn't help Conway or Dole any, and probably hurt them.

[Holmes]

Today's Nanos.

Conservative - 38.0 (+1.6)     
NDP - 29.6 (-1.6)    
Liberal - 23.3 (+1.3)    
BQ - 5.2 (-0.5)    
Green - 3.1 (-0.9)

*shrug* Little change in Ontario, BC, or Quebec (NDP -2%). Tories gain more in the Prairies, and a lot more in the Atlantic, where apparently the NDP is in third. Big MoE's, of course.

[Hatman 🍁]

Yup, the attacks are working

[Holmes]

The massage parlor attack started pretty late yesterday, I don't think it's reflected in the polling. Nanos is a three day tracker, and I believe Tuesday was a really good day for the NDP on Nanos. With that out of equation, NDP slightly loses a bit of points. What's more important is that if they can close the deal during the weekend and translate the numbers into seats.