Democratic Grand Finale Tuesday results thread (1st polls close @8pm ET)

[Gass3268]

SD: Clinton 51, Sanders 49

Give accolades.

accolades

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

CA: Clinton 58.9-40.1 with 44% in. Still uncalled.

[NOVA Green]

Heh, Santa Cruz county flipped to Sanders. My husband's hometown. Might be the only Bay Area county to go to him at this point...

Naah... less than 50% of the vote is in and remaining votes should break heavily for Bernie in the Bay.

Marin and SF will likely flip, and quite possibly Alemeda once all the votes are counted....

Are there still votes that come in after all the precincts are reported? Because SF and Marin are fully done and they both went to Clinton.

Like I have said multiple times before, there is no such thing as "precincts" when it comes to vote-by-mail states. Instead state election officials use this as a rough estimate of outstanding percentage of total votes remaining, when the reality is nobody has any idea how many outstanding votes are out there, especially in states like Washington and California that allow votes to be counted that are mailed on election day.... totally different concept from when I first got into looking at "precinct returns" 20 years ago....

[politicallefty]

See here for county reporting status. Even with 100% reporting, there will still be some outstanding ballots, but it wouldn't be anything too big for a primary like this. No county that's finished reporting tonight is going to overturn a double-digit lead by anything that might be uncounted.

[IceSpear]

Loretta Sanchez just clinched the 2nd slot in CA. Harris is really outperforming though, currently cracking 40%.

[Gass3268]

Sanders just passed Trump in total votes.

[Gass3268]

Loretta Sanchez just clinched the 2nd slot in CA. Harris is really outperforming though, currently cracking 40%.

Best news of the night.

[Holmes]

Santa Clara, Los Angeles and Riverside counties are seriously lagging behind the rest of the state.

[Dr. Arch]

The never-closing 400,000 gap.

[Xing]

I guess Clinton won the early vote by about 25%, and pretty much broke even with Sanders among the election day vote, or perhaps Sanders narrowly won.

[Landslide Lyndon]

I'm sure the dead-enders Sandernistas will blame AP for their loss in California. Never mind the detail that Clinton's lead was entirely built with early vote-by-mail and absentees.

[ElectionsGuy]

Another vote dump. Sanders needs 61% of remaining votes to win, a near impossible task considering more than half of Los Angeles is still out.

[Adam Griffin]

Not sure if it's been mentioned yet or if it has happened with any frequency in the past (I would think not), but - at least when measuring the vote totals of the candidates listed on NYT, Orange County had more Democratic presidential primary voters than Republican presidential primary voters. Is this the first time in the modern era?

OC Democratic Primary*: 223,267
OC Republican Primary**: 189,172

*Clinton, Sanders, Wilson, Steinburg
** Trump, Kasich, Cruz, Carson

[Anna Komnene]

I like how the contest ratio was the exact same as 2008, only this time Hillary had 33 instead of 23.  Kinda fitting even though I didn't support her this time (or Bernie either).

[ElectionsGuy]

Yep, I can't find any other contests where Orange County had more Democratic votes. Its worth noting though even in 2008 both races were contested at the time (February 5th), I would bet that if California were to run sometime in, say March, it would be something like a 55/45 R/D split.

[Xing]

Well, I guess the question is whether or not this is a double digit win. It should be somewhere in the 9-12% range. GG, Clinton supporters. Time to teach Little Donny boy a lesson.

[Adam Griffin]

Yep, I can't find any other contests where Orange County had more Democratic votes. Its worth noting though even in 2008 both races were contested at the time (February 5th), I would bet that if California were to run sometime in, say March, it would be something like a 55/45 R/D split.

I wouldn't think turnout would be an issue: after all, there was a competitive Senate primary and even CA GOP voters had a vested interest in weighing in on it. Additionally, it's not like OC GOP voters are more likely than the average GOP voter to skip what might otherwise seem like an inconsequential election, and in turning out, they'd have to vote in their own primary. Perhaps a bit of it can be explained by disgruntled GOP voters leaving that part of the ballot blank, but I don't think it'd come anywhere near explaining a 10 point gap. Furthermore, I don't know why they wouldn't just vote for Kasich if they don't want Trump getting their votes.

[ElectionsGuy]

Haven't we seen a generally downturn in turnout since the dropout of Cruz and Kasich? South Dakota was only a 56/44 R split, Montana a 54/46 split, Oregon a 62/38 D split. This whole primary we've seen the trend of Republicans turning out far better than Democrats, except for these last few contests. I agree Orange County looks terrible for Republicans, and maybe not a 55/45 split, but I think Republicans would have more votes with a contested Republican race. The presidential race is the most powerful force in bringing out people to vote, more than local or statewide races ever could.

On another note, I would assume its impossible to get county results for North Dakota, yes? (not asking any particular person, just anybody) Since popular votes weren't used and it broke down by house district.

[ElectionsGuy]

CNN just called California for Clinton - 5:49 AM EST

[politicallefty]

As does NBC, finally. That was a very long time to make a very obvious call and what's very likely to be a double-digit win in the end (as I mentioned earlier, probably about 12%).

[Landslide Lyndon]

Why uncommitted got almost 11% yesterday at North Dakota?
I mean, how much of a deadbeat you must be to go to a caucus, AFTER the nomination has been decided, and vote for uncommitted?

[Hydera]

Bernie is going to lose California by a more than predicted 12-13 margin. So whats the "argument" for super delegates overturning the election to him given he lost California by that much?

[ElectionsGuy]

With the delegate allocation still incomplete, Sanders needs 81% of superdelegates to obtain the nomination right now. He currently has 7% to Clinton's 80%. I don't get it, there's no point. Fight for the rules, the platform, whatever, but if he's a good candidate he should at least acknowledge that the race is over and she will be the nominee and make some attempt to unite behind her.

[Panda Express]

My respect for Bernie has gone down hill very, very quickly the past weeks. He knows it's been over for a long time but refuses to drop out and keeps feeding his crazy supporters and giving them reason to believe they're being cheated out of something Clinton won fair and square. His supporters will only become more rabid and idiotic over the next week, get ready for the conspiracies to get even crazier.

This pretty much. He's supposed to meet with Obama on Thursday. If he stays in after that, he is officially a piece of s(inks)

[IceSpear]

Haven't we seen a generally downturn in turnout since the dropout of Cruz and Kasich? South Dakota was only a 56/44 R split, Montana a 54/46 split, Oregon a 62/38 D split. This whole primary we've seen the trend of Republicans turning out far better than Democrats, except for these last few contests. I agree Orange County looks terrible for Republicans, and maybe not a 55/45 split, but I think Republicans would have more votes with a contested Republican race. The presidential race is the most powerful force in bringing out people to vote, more than local or statewide races ever could.

Yep. Though it's quite funny seeing all the Republicans and pundits who were ranting about "MUH PRIMARY TURNOUTZ MAKE THESE STATES SAFE R!!!!111!" now furiously backpedalling. When the Republican primary had more candidates and was more competitive, it had higher turnout. Once the Democratic primary was relatively more competitive (even when it still really wasn't), it got higher turnout. This isn't complicated, it's common sense. There will be little correlation or extrapolation to the general election.

Why uncommitted got almost 11% yesterday at North Dakota?
I mean, how much of a deadbeat you must be to go to a caucus, AFTER the nomination has been decided, and vote for uncommitted?

Yeah, I don't get it either. My only guess is that a lot of Republicans and right wing independents participated (remember, ND had no GOP contest yesterday...or ever. And the caucus was open) who wanted to stick it to Hillary, but couldn't bring themselves to vote for Bernie either.