Democratic Grand Finale Tuesday results thread (1st polls close @8pm ET)

[NOVA Green]

Ok... so Cali Dem Primary map only including new votes since election day to understand the "Late VbM results.

Gray counties= no updates since election day

Dark Blue/ Dark Red Bernie-Hillary = +15% from "Late" Vote-by-Mail (VbM) ballots
Medium Blue / Purple= +7.5% Bernie-Hillary from "Late Vote-by-Mail ballots
Green/Yellow= <7.5% Bernie-Hillary from Late Vote-by-Mail ballot

Note that there are (4) urban Red counties (Most significantly LA County ~40k votes) and a lesser extent Sac  that did a small initial vote dump, where Late VbM's favor Hilary heavily but this is likely to change significantly once Wave 2 Late VbMs kick in.

San Bernadino/Riverside/ San Diego that have barely reported Late VbMs have a medium Hillary lead.

Orange County has a narrow Bernie lead in Late VbMs.

Alameda/ SF/ Stanlius are narrow Hillary leads in Late VbMs.

NorCal/ Sierra Nevada rural--- Heavily Bernie lead in Late VbMs.

Central/ South Coast- Solid Bernie lead in Late VbMs

[NOVA Green]

Okay, final map of the night for Cali.

Shows the % change from election night until today and appears to indicate margins shifting 1-2% without provisionals.

[Beet]

Seems like there is about 0 chance of Sanders significantly closing the gap with Clinton.

I think you're definitely jumping the gun a little, there's still so much to count.

Some people on this forum seem to have a bit of an obsession with vote by mail counting that doesn't change much of anything. I'm rather glad most states haven't moved to the system.

Well yeah, we're a forum of political geeks, of course some of us are interested in what the final margin in these races turn out to be.

Plus, corny as it may sound, every vote deserves to be counted.

Tbf, the idea that votes should determine anything seems like a quaint idea sometimes this election cycle.

[IceSpear]

Seems like there is about 0 chance of Sanders significantly closing the gap with Clinton.

I think you're definitely jumping the gun a little, there's still so much to count.

Some people on this forum seem to have a bit of an obsession with vote by mail counting that doesn't change much of anything. I'm rather glad most states haven't moved to the system.

Well yeah, we're a forum of political geeks, of course some of us are interested in what the final margin in these races turn out to be.

Plus, corny as it may sound, every vote deserves to be counted.

Tbf, the idea that votes should determine anything seems like a quaint idea sometimes this election cycle.

Yeah, we need to make sure Hillary stays as the nominee when all the late Cali ballots give Bernie a 100 point surge and he finishes ahead in pledged delegates.

[NOVA Green]

Ok... California Dem Primary updates for anyone that cares or is interested in voters actually interested in the obscure dynamics of a hybrid Early Vote by Mail/ Same Day / Late Vote by Mail / Provisional ballots.

An additional 200k votes counted since late Friday as per county election sites (49.5-50.5% Hillary):

By order of total Dem vote updated:

Alameda County - 66.5k votes (50.1-49.9 Bernie)
San Diego County- 36.5k votes (47-53 Hillary)
Orange County- 31.9k votes (53-47 Bernie)
San Francisco- 15k votes (51-49 Bernie)
San Bernadino- 13.7k votes (48-52 Hillary)
Monterey- 8.5 k votes (45-55 Hillary)
Kern- 3.4k (42-58 Hillary)
Santa Clara- 2.5k (51-49 Bernie)
Imperial- 1.8k (30-70 Hillary)
Calaveras-700 (59-41 Bernie)


So key items to note, we are first starting to see late vote-by-mail ballots (VbM) trickling in from Socal, and initial results seem to be trending heavily Bernie, as measured by San Bernadino and OC.

Several counties in the Bay Area are close to counting late VbMs and SF and Santa Clara are looking like a 1.5% from same-day and early ballots.

Alameda county had its largest dump so far, and Bernie has a narrow lead already, with many more late VbM to be counted.

Monterey county had its first vote dump since election night, but doesn't appear to be mirroring SLO and Santa Barbara thus far, where there was a dramatic swing from early VbMs and Same-Day votes.

Kern County- First vote dump from Late VbMs and no change in margins, unlike Fresno County. How does this play out in the Central Valley that has been extremely slow to count to understand how the Democratic Primary played out in the heart of UFW country?

Now... with much more limited data from Socal (Nothing really from LA), but an early late VbM surge from Bernie in Orange and San Bernadino, it really does look that at the end of day Bernie might well perform better in Socal than the Bay Area.

Regardless, looks like an overall statewide +1-1.5% from election day numbers assuming that current VbM trends hold, and quite possibly once provisionals are counted a 7-9% Hillary win.

Thoughts/Comments/Whatever....

Sbane... we might need to review the "Late Vote-by-Mail" scenario since it appears that there are multiple waves that trended Hillary early and shifted Bernie later.

Still, thus far total raw numbers favor Hillary 50-50 on Late VbMs, but there does appear to be a bit of a shift taking place in SoCal, outside of SD, as well as Alameda in East Bay.

[Desroko]

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https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/742574179875053568

[NOVA Green]

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https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/742574179875053568

That's the exact data I have been providing in my updates in a county-by-county scenario, running swing maps from election day from reporting counties...

Margins will likely tighten from 43-57 to 45-55 by the time all the Late Vote-By-Mail ballots are counted and provisionals could well take it down to a 7-9% margin....

Ultimately, LA County is really going to be the big decider of final margins and we have almost no date regarding VbM ballots with potentially 400-450k Democratic ballots outstanding...

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

It's ridiculous how long it takes for CA to count the ballots. It's been like this the last several elections as well.

[Sbane]

Ok... California Dem Primary updates for anyone that cares or is interested in voters actually interested in the obscure dynamics of a hybrid Early Vote by Mail/ Same Day / Late Vote by Mail / Provisional ballots.

An additional 200k votes counted since late Friday as per county election sites (49.5-50.5% Hillary):

By order of total Dem vote updated:

Alameda County - 66.5k votes (50.1-49.9 Bernie)
San Diego County- 36.5k votes (47-53 Hillary)
Orange County- 31.9k votes (53-47 Bernie)
San Francisco- 15k votes (51-49 Bernie)
San Bernadino- 13.7k votes (48-52 Hillary)
Monterey- 8.5 k votes (45-55 Hillary)
Kern- 3.4k (42-58 Hillary)
Santa Clara- 2.5k (51-49 Bernie)
Imperial- 1.8k (30-70 Hillary)
Calaveras-700 (59-41 Bernie)


So key items to note, we are first starting to see late vote-by-mail ballots (VbM) trickling in from Socal, and initial results seem to be trending heavily Bernie, as measured by San Bernadino and OC.

Several counties in the Bay Area are close to counting late VbMs and SF and Santa Clara are looking like a 1.5% from same-day and early ballots.

Alameda county had its largest dump so far, and Bernie has a narrow lead already, with many more late VbM to be counted.

Monterey county had its first vote dump since election night, but doesn't appear to be mirroring SLO and Santa Barbara thus far, where there was a dramatic swing from early VbMs and Same-Day votes.

Kern County- First vote dump from Late VbMs and no change in margins, unlike Fresno County. How does this play out in the Central Valley that has been extremely slow to count to understand how the Democratic Primary played out in the heart of UFW country?

Now... with much more limited data from Socal (Nothing really from LA), but an early late VbM surge from Bernie in Orange and San Bernadino, it really does look that at the end of day Bernie might well perform better in Socal than the Bay Area.

Regardless, looks like an overall statewide +1-1.5% from election day numbers assuming that current VbM trends hold, and quite possibly once provisionals are counted a 7-9% Hillary win.

Thoughts/Comments/Whatever....

Sbane... we might need to review the "Late Vote-by-Mail" scenario since it appears that there are multiple waves that trended Hillary early and shifted Bernie later.

Still, thus far total raw numbers favor Hillary 50-50 on Late VbMs, but there does appear to be a bit of a shift taking place in SoCal, outside of SD, as well as Alameda in East Bay.

Excellent work the last few days. I had a busy weekend and haven't really been watching the results closely, but you gave a good breakdown here. Will be interesting to see how much the last minute ballots help Bernie. That is a very interesting phenomenon we are noticing here and will be interesting to see if it continues.

[DINGO Joe]

Don't know how whether it's relevant to the state as a whole or just specific to  San Francisco, but their beginning post-election count of ballots left listed 24,000 provisionals and as of the most recent update it's down to 18,000 (without any provisionals counted thus far).

[Gustaf]

What's the count right now?

[Ebsy]

Clinton: 2,211,549 (55.5%)
Sanders: 1,734,922 (43.6%)

[Fusionmunster]

The percentage keeps shrinking but the actual margin keeps getting bigger, just like 2008.

[IceSpear]

So are the two questions remaining:

1) Will it be single digits or double digits?
2) Will she do better or worse than in 2008?

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

The count now:

Clinton 55.1% - 2,360,184 votes
Sanders 44.0% - 1,887,120 votes

[Dr. Arch]

The count now:

Clinton 55.1% - 2,360,184 votes
Sanders 44.0% - 1,887,120 votes

Is it over now?

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

^^ Nope. Counties have until July 8 to submit their final vote counts.

[IceSpear]

The count now:

Clinton 55.1% - 2,360,184 votes
Sanders 44.0% - 1,887,120 votes

Is it over now?

Not even close. There's still nearly 2 million ballots left, though many were cast in the Republican race and a chunk of the provisionals will be invalid.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

^^ Nope. Counties have until July 8 to submit their final vote counts.

Thank God it wasn't close or the decider

[Dr. Arch]

^^ Nope. Counties have until July 8 to submit their final vote counts.

My goodness, xD

[NOVA Green]

So are the two questions remaining:

1) Will it be single digits or double digits?
2) Will she do better or worse than in 2008?

Icespear,

Both very good questions, but that honestly I can't predict the answers on yet, however there are some extremely interesting patterns emerging that indicate the race could well end up within single digit margins, as well as a lower margin victory than '08.

The key variable appears to be the Norcal (Bay Area) and SoCal dynamic.

In the former, Clinton is over-performing '08 margins based upon strong LGBT & AA support in SF (Initial precinct level data analysis), huge swings from Obama '08 to Hillary '12 voters in high income Anglo/Asian voters in South Bay (Santa Clara precinct results) and the Peninsula, as well as places like Walnut Creek/Concord, while at the same time losing large chunks of Middle-Class Asian/Latino/Anglo voters from Sunset to Sunnyvale and the East Bay.

The offset is Socal, where Bernie is significantly overperforming Obama '08 numbers, particularly with working and middle class Latinos, Anglos, and Asian-Americans.

I just started wading into the precinct and municipal data from LA County, but it does appear not only since election day, but now that we are finally starting to see some of the late VbM results from Socal, that there could well be a scenario where Obama narrowly won BAR vs Hillary in '08 and Bernie loses the region by 10%, while only losing Socal by 7% once the provisionals are finally counted.

Personally, I think the sheer number of votes in Socal in that scenario would likely indicate a worse performance than in '08, if I had to gaze into a crystal ball, but we should have a better idea in another week once all the late VbMs are counted.

[NOVA Green]

Update from Cali.... 232k Dem Ballots counted since yesterday's update (49.4-50.6% Hilary)...

LA County- 130k (48-52 Hillary). This is Huge as it is the first real update from LA County since election day, and with many more late VbM ballot to be counted, appears to indicate a late VbM trend towards Bernie, and as the largest county and Democratic vote base in the state, a significant shift from election day results to final margins.

Riverside County- 25k (50-50* Hillary). There was one small update since election day, but the county has now moved from (39-61 Hillary) to (41-59 Hillary) one of the largest election day swings of any major county in Cali and well beyond the statewide swing.

Santa Cruz- 20.7k (62-38 Bernie). First update since election day and a 2.1% swing in a massive late VbM dump. Key question is will we see something similar in Yolo County, and possibly Monterey County with the next update. Provos should trend overwhelmingly....

San Diego- 17.7k (53-47 Bernie). SD has been somewhat efficient in processing late VbMs and it is difficult to tell how many are outstanding, but thus far there has been a much lower swing from election day numbers than in most other Metro counties in California.

Orange- 7.9k (52-48 Bernie). OC is gradually winding down late VbMs with a 1.1% swing from election day.

Santa Barbara- 7.4k (58-42 Bernie). Provos should trend overwhelmingly....

Butte- 5.7k (69-31 Bernie). Provos should trend overwhelmingly....

Nevada= 4.6k (64-36 Bernie). First county update.

El Dorado- 4.3k (57-43 Bernie). First county update.

San Francisco- 1.8k (52-48 Bernie). Winding up late VbM numbers and only a 1% swing from ED numbers.

Santa Clara- 4.3k (53-47 Bernie). Very interesting trending here since election day and was overwhelmingly Clinton early, but one of best performances for Bernie statewide in a metro county in swings from ED. Most of late VbMs are counted, but because of the efficiency of the Santa Clara County elections department, this could be one of the first major counties in the state where we start to see how the provisional votes are breaking.

[DINGO Joe]

So are the two questions remaining:

1) Will it be single digits or double digits?
2) Will she do better or worse than in 2008?

I think when it's all done, the vote totals and percentages will be striking close to 2008, even though individual counties  had major shifts.  So, single digits, the same

I guess the one caveat would be LA county, because it's so huge and has provided so little thus far.

[Eraserhead]

Clinton's lead is down to 10.9%

Clinton 55.0%
Sanders 44.1%

[Fusionmunster]

Clinton's lead is down to 10.9%

Clinton 55.0%
Sanders 44.1%

Notice however that her lead in actual votes has not gone down.  It means shes been winning the late ballots.