Gubernatorial Ratings and Predictions - Missouri

[Xing]

Likely D, Koster wins 51-44. It looked like Missouri was a golden pick-up opportunity for Republicans even a few months ago, but Koster has had a lot of fortune in this race, and polling definitely gives him an edge.

John Gregg is only ahead by two votes in Indiana.

Current Balance of Power:
Republicans: 27
Democrats: 12
Independents: 1

Ratings:

Safe D: Delaware (Jack Markell)
Likely D: -
Lean D: -
Toss-Up: Indiana (Mike Pence)
Lean R: -
Likely R: -
Safe R: -

Predictions:

Past winners:

John Carney (D-DE)
John Gregg (D-IN)

Previous Threads: (You can still vote in these!)
Delaware Indiana

[Heisenberg]

Likely D. The MO GOP is trash.

Koster 52%
Greitens 44%

Basically this. I would actually say more like Koster 51, Greitens 46, but Koster has this in the bag.

[Skye]

Lean D. I still don't know how the GOP blew this race.

[ElectionsGuy]

Lean D, 50-46 Koster.

[Heisenberg]

Lean D. I still don't know how the GOP blew this race.

First, Koster was considered a solid Democratic recruit. For the GOP, the primary was a hard-fought four-way battle, which meant that whoever came out of the primary would be at a disadvantage with cash. And Koster picked up endorsements from generally Republican-leaning the Farm Bureau and the NRA, likely because they saw him as a reliable friend of their agenda, whereas Greitens, who has never held public office before was perceived as a big unknown.

[Maxwell]

On paper Greitens seemed like a good recruit. In reality, Greitens has been a disaster.

[Kingpoleon]

Likely D; Koster 51-45. Koster needs a new look, because Greitens's picture appearing on campaign hand outs next to Koster's could have a negative effect. I wish looks didn't matter much, but unfortunately, I noticed that this poll even made me push down Koster's margin by a percent than I came in intending to have. Hopefully Greitens doesn't get enough air time alongside Koster's face to matter much.

Hopefully this doesn't come off as far too overly superficial.

[windjammer]

Koster by 5 points.

After the disaster of Monica Wehby, they do it again with Greitens.

[Heisenberg]

Koster by 5 points.

After the disaster of Monica Wehby, they do it again with Greitens.

She's from Oregon.

[windjammer]

Koster by 5 points.

After the disaster of Monica Wehby, they do it again with Greitens.

She's from Oregon.

Yes, indeed.
They made the same mistake: "blabla she's an outsider, she's blablablabla, she will win."
Same with Greitens.

[Heisenberg]

Koster by 5 points.

After the disaster of Monica Wehby, they do it again with Greitens.

She's from Oregon.

Yes, indeed.
They made the same mistake: "blabla she's an outsider, she's blablablabla, she will win."
Same with Greitens.

Thanks for explaining. I though you were referring to the incompetence of the Missouri GOP. Also, that race was different, the seat was not open and I don't remember Merkley being viewed as particularly vulnerable, whereas this was seen as a golden pickup opportunity.

[Fitzgerald]

Likely D. I'll say 53-46 for Koster.

[windjammer]

Koster by 5 points.

After the disaster of Monica Wehby, they do it again with Greitens.

She's from Oregon.

Yes, indeed.
They made the same mistake: "blabla she's an outsider, she's blablablabla, she will win."
Same with Greitens.

Thanks for explaining. I though you were referring to the incompetence of the Missouri GOP. Also, that race was different, the seat was not open and I don't remember Merkley being viewed as particularly vulnerable, whereas this was seen as a golden pickup opportunity.

I can assure you that the Pub establishment media like Politico were all in for the myth of Wehby.

[President Johnson]

Lean Democratic. Koster wins 52-46%.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Lean D
Chris Koster 50-44-6

[Del Tachi]

Lean D - Koster wins 51-45

[Xing]

This race does seem to have tightened, but I think Koster still pulls out a win, 50-47, or something like that.

[jamestroll]

This race does seem to have tightened, but I think Koster still pulls out a win, 50-47, or something like that.

A lot of people I know have given up on this race for the Democrats. Many facebook Greitens supporters think Koster can not even break 40%.

I still say lean Democrat hold.