2018 Senate Rankings

[Pericles]

If Democrats are in so much trouble,why did they win those seats twice(in a MIDTERM and a presidential election with OBAMA!)?

[Mike Thick]

The only way for this to be even somewhat realistic would be to shift “Likely R” and everything past it two ratings to the left.

[Virginiá]

snip

This basically shows how bad a map it is for Democrats in that I’m projecting Republicans to gain anywhere from 4-7 seats.

snip

We get it Lear. You've posted your Republican-friendly predictions like a thousand times already. Posting your Senate + House predictions is about the only thing you seem to really enjoy doing here, which coincidentally is part of the reason some people think you're a concern troll. I'm not sure if anyone has posted about their predictions as much as you.

[Blackacre]

snip

This basically shows how bad a map it is for Democrats in that I’m projecting Republicans to gain anywhere from 4-7 seats.

snip

We get it Lear. You've posted your Republican-friendly predictions like a thousand times already. Posting your Senate + House predictions is about the only thing you seem to really enjoy doing here, which coincidentally is part of the reason some people think you're a concern troll. I'm not sure if anyone has posted about their predictions as much as you.

I mean, to be fair, I've made what, five hundred prediction posts in this thread?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I agree with MT here... only part I would change is WV to lean D status.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Tillerson throws cold water on the idea of him resigning, so the tentative rating for AR has been removed: http://www.cnn.com/2018/01/05/politics/tillerson-trump-mental-fitness/index.html

Safe D (11): VT, MD, DE, CT, RI, MA, NY, WA, HI, CA, MN-Regular
Likely D (6): MI, NM, NJ, ME, VA, MN-Special
Lean D (6): MT, WI, PA, FL, NV (D+1), AZ (D+2)
Toss-Up (2): ND, WV
Lean R (4): IN (D+1), OH (even), TN, MO (R+1)
Likely R (1): MS-Special*
Safe R (5): MS-Regular, NE, TX, WY, UT

* Possible Special Election

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

And uh, Ohio moves from Lean R to Lean D in light of Mandel's withdrawal.

Safe D (11): VT, MD, DE, CT, RI, MA, NY, WA, HI, CA, MN-Regular
Likely D (6): MI, NM, NJ, ME, VA, MN-Special
Lean D (7): MT, WI, PA, FL, NV (D+1), AZ (D+2), OH
Toss-Up (2): ND, WV
Lean R (3): IN (D+1), TN, MO (even)
Likely R (1): MS-Special*
Safe R (5): MS-Regular, NE, TX, WY, UT

[The Other Castro]

Having Ohio as Lean R in the first place is silly.

[Blackacre]

MANDEL IS GONE!!! MANDEL IS GONE!!!!

Ordinarily this wouldn't be a big deal, as Ohio was already Likely D and Mandel was a weak candidate. However, now Ohio Republicans are without a candidate. Mandel cleared the field and now he's gone! Therefore, Ohio moves up to Very Likely Dem, a ranking reserved for very-nearly-safe races, and that's where it will stay if Brown faces a Some Dude. If he runs unopposed, however, obviously it moves up to Safe. This also means my boy can pivot to a Presidential run!

edit: Okay they do have a candidate. But that candidate is awful. Very Likely D rating stands.

Safely Democratic: This state will not, in any universe, vote Republican for the Senate under any circumstances.
CA, NY, MA, RI, ME, VT, MD, WA, HI

Very Likely Democratic: It's almost impossible to imagine this state voting Republican for the Senate, but it could conceivably happen in the most perfect of perfect storms.
MN, NM, VA, MN-Special, DE, CT, OH, NJ

Likely Democratic: Odds are that this state will send a Democrat to the Senate, but circumstances make it plausible for the Republican to win instead.
MI, WV, ND, WI

Leans Democratic: The Democrat is undoubtably favored, but the race is very much competitive. Don't be surprised if the Republican wins.
NV, PA, FL, MT, AZ

Tilts Democratic: The Democrat is favored over the Republican, but just barely. Expect this one to be close.
IN

Tossup: I have absolutely no idea which way this state will go.
MO

Tilts Republican: The Republican is favored over the Democrat, but just barely. Expect this one to be close.
Nothing here

Leans Republican: The Republican is undoubtably favored, but the race is very much competitive. Don't be surprised if the Democrat wins.
TN

Likely Republican: Odds are that this state will send a Republican to the Senate, but circumstances make it plausible for the Democrat to win instead.
TX

Very Likely Republican: It's almost impossible to imagine this state voting Democratic for the Senate, but it could conceivably happen in the most perfect of perfect storms.
MS

Safely Republican: This state will not, in any universe, vote Democratic for the Senate under any circumstances.
NE, WY, UT

And here's a visual aid!
(MN-Special will be represented by DC in the visual aid)

Democrats: 50 seats
Republicans: 49 seats
Pure tossup: 1 seat

(btw, if we get a special election in MS, I'll have the Maine districts represent the two special elections)

[LimoLiberal]

LimoLiberal Official 2018 Senate Rankings
1/5/18 (I plan to do this bimonthly)
Including commentary on competitive primaries.

Safe R:
NE
WY
MS
UT

Likely R:
TX

Lean R:
TN

Tilt R:
MO
ND (regardless of who wins R primary)

Tossup:
IN
AZ (Tilt D if Ward wins R primary),
FL (very much hinging on Scott running or not)

Tilt D:
NV (Lean D if Tarkanian wins his primary)
WV
OH (pending Mandel's replacement)

Lean D:
MT
WI
MN-Special (Tilt D if Pawlenty wins, Safe D if Bachmann wins)
PA

Likely D:
MI
NJ
VA (Safe D if Stewart wins R primary)

Safe D:
MA
CT
RI
MN
WA
DE
MD
CA
NY

Likely I
ME (Lean I if Lepage enters)

Safe I
VT

Without allocating tossups, my current projections are 50 Republicans, 45 Democrats, 2 Independents,  and 3 Tossups.

Democrats pick up Nevada, while Republicans pick up North Dakota and Missouri.

[Bidenworth2020]

LimoLiberal Official 2018 Senate Rankings
1/5/18 (I plan to do this bimonthly)
Including commentary on competitive primaries.

Safe R:
NE
WY
MS
UT

Likely R:
TX

Lean R:
TN

Tilt R:
MO
ND (regardless of who wins R primary)

Tossup:
IN
AZ (Tilt D if Ward wins R primary),
FL (very much hinging on Scott running or not)

Tilt D:
NV (Lean D if Tarkanian wins his primary)
WV
OH (pending Mandel's replacement)

Lean D:
MT
WI
MN-Special (Tilt D if Pawlenty wins, Safe D if Bachmann wins)
PA

Likely D:
MI
NJ
VA (Safe D if Stewart wins R primary)

Safe D:
MA
CT
RI
MN
WA
DE
MD
CA
NY

Likely I
ME (Lean I if Lepage enters)

Safe I
VT

Without allocating tossups, my current projections are 50 Republicans, 45 Democrats, 2 Independents,  and 3 Tossups.

Democrats pick up Nevada, while Republicans pick up North Dakota and Missouri.

when did you become reasonable?

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

^ It's his new persona. He changes behaviors every so often.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Recently changed ratings in ND, OH, and TX.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

^ It's his new persona. He changes behaviors every so often.

New Years Resolution to stop trolling atlas?

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

^ It's his new persona. He changes behaviors every so often.

New Years Resolution to stop trolling atlas?

Perhaps, but most New Year's Resolutions are broken within a week or two.

[IceSpear]

How exactly does Mandel dropping out hurt the Republicans' chances in Ohio? He was one of the weakest candidates OH Republicans had, yet they for some reason gave him a glide path to the nomination.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

How exactly does Mandel dropping out hurt the Republicans' chances in Ohio? He was one of the weakest candidates OH Republicans had, yet they for some reason gave him a glide path to the nomination.

He was leading Brown in all available public polling. Also the GOP has only a month to find a replacement, who will have to start raising money from scratch very fast, lest Brown outspend them by too much early on.

[Xing]

How exactly does Mandel dropping out hurt the Republicans' chances in Ohio? He was one of the weakest candidates OH Republicans had, yet they for some reason gave him a glide path to the nomination.

He was leading Brown in all available public polling. Also the GOP has only a month to find a replacement, who will have to start raising money from scratch very fast, lest Brown outspend them by too much early on.

You mean like how Strickland was leading Portman in early polling? Polls are practically meaningless this early on.

[Cold War Liberal]

MANDEL IS GONE!!! MANDEL IS GONE!!!!

Ordinarily this wouldn't be a big deal, as Ohio was already Likely D and Mandel was a weak candidate. However, now Ohio Republicans are without a candidate. Mandel cleared the field and now he's gone! Therefore, Ohio moves up to Very Likely Dem, a ranking reserved for very-nearly-safe races, and that's where it will stay if Brown faces a Some Dude. If he runs unopposed, however, obviously it moves up to Safe. This also means my boy can pivot to a Presidential run!

edit: Okay they do have a candidate. But that candidate is awful. Very Likely D rating stands.

Safely Democratic: This state will not, in any universe, vote Republican for the Senate under any circumstances.
CA, NY, MA, RI, ME, VT, MD, WA, HI

Very Likely Democratic: It's almost impossible to imagine this state voting Republican for the Senate, but it could conceivably happen in the most perfect of perfect storms.
MN, NM, VA, MN-Special, DE, CT, OH, NJ

Likely Democratic: Odds are that this state will send a Democrat to the Senate, but circumstances make it plausible for the Republican to win instead.
MI, WV, ND, WI

Leans Democratic: The Democrat is undoubtably favored, but the race is very much competitive. Don't be surprised if the Republican wins.
NV, PA, FL, MT, AZ

Tilts Democratic: The Democrat is favored over the Republican, but just barely. Expect this one to be close.
IN

Tossup: I have absolutely no idea which way this state will go.
MO

Tilts Republican: The Republican is favored over the Democrat, but just barely. Expect this one to be close.
Nothing here

Leans Republican: The Republican is undoubtably favored, but the race is very much competitive. Don't be surprised if the Democrat wins.
TN

Likely Republican: Odds are that this state will send a Republican to the Senate, but circumstances make it plausible for the Democrat to win instead.
TX

Very Likely Republican: It's almost impossible to imagine this state voting Democratic for the Senate, but it could conceivably happen in the most perfect of perfect storms.
MS

Safely Republican: This state will not, in any universe, vote Democratic for the Senate under any circumstances.
NE, WY, UT

And here's a visual aid!
(MN-Special will be represented by DC in the visual aid)

Democrats: 50 seats
Republicans: 49 seats
Pure tossup: 1 seat

(btw, if we get a special election in MS, I'll have the Maine districts represent the two special elections)

This is essentially what I'm thinking. I hope McCaskill hangs on and/or Bredesen wins in TN...

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

This is essentially what I'm thinking. I hope McCaskill hangs on and/or Bredesen wins in TN...

MO-Sen is Safe D lol.

[King Lear]

2018 Senate Results:
Democratic seats: 42 (-7)
Republican seats: 58 (+7)
This is the worst case scenario for Democrats.

[IceSpear]

How exactly does Mandel dropping out hurt the Republicans' chances in Ohio? He was one of the weakest candidates OH Republicans had, yet they for some reason gave him a glide path to the nomination.

He was leading Brown in all available public polling. Also the GOP has only a month to find a replacement, who will have to start raising money from scratch very fast, lest Brown outspend them by too much early on.

Lol Mandel led in exactly two polls: both almost a year old, both commissioned by Republicans and both showing Trump at +10 approvals. I’d have been shocked if Brown WAS leading in any polling samples like that.

But year old polls matter so much. That's why South Carolina was a toss up in 2012!

https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2012/polls.php?fips=45

[Dr. Arch]

People keep saying Minnesota is moving right moving right, but the state is wildly different from Wisconsin politically, and the growing anchor that is the Twin Cities coupled with the suburban shift away from Republicans will keep this state out of reach for them. MN always teeters with thin margins, but there just isn't enough there for Republicans. This goes hand in hand with the growing population in the cities (fueled by younger generations moving away from states like Wisconsin and Illinois and shrinking populations elsewhere in the state). That's what I believe so far from what I've seen from the state and something many people miss when looking at it.

[Orser67]

Reasonable list. I don't think MN will be particularly competitive but I can understand why it would be listed before TX, TN, PA, WI, or NJ.

[LimoLiberal]

Was Trump's performance in rural Minnesota not the high water mark for Rs there? Literally every DFL officeholder in the past eight years would do better in the rurals that Hillary.