ME-02: Poliquin in denial

[MAINEiac4434]

The Press Herald has endorsed Golden (and Pingree).

https://www.pressherald.com/2018/10/22/our-endorsement-editorial-board-endorses-chellie-pingree-jared-golden-for-u-s-house/

Democrats (and King) sweep both major newspapers' endorsements.

[MAINEiac4434]

Wonder if this will move the needle at all

https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1055559438977900544?s=21

[Hindsight was 2020]

Bruce Poliquin just put out the worst campaign ad I ever seen and it’s glorious https://mobile.twitter.com/LPDonovan/status/1056178123513970688/video/1

[MAINEiac4434]

Bruce Poliquin just put out the worst campaign ad I ever seen and it’s glorious https://mobile.twitter.com/LPDonovan/status/1056178123513970688/video/1

He’s been doing ads like this since he was elected. Random peeps, in a restaurant, loudly talking about how much they love Bruce Poliquin. The one from 2016 ended with them all randomly clapping.

[Rocky Rockefeller]

Bruce Poliquin just put out the worst campaign ad I ever seen and it’s glorious https://mobile.twitter.com/LPDonovan/status/1056178123513970688/video/1

He’s been doing ads like this since he was elected. Random peeps, in a restaurant, loudly talking about how much they love Bruce Poliquin. The one from 2016 ended with them all randomly clapping.

Oh my God, I forgot about that ad, so cringy

[MAINEiac4434]

Golden +1 in Emerson poll that found Mills up by 8

https://www.emerson.edu/news-events/emerson-college-today/emerson-polls-ct-me-nh-two-house-races-play-potential-gubernatorial-upset#.W9nGUXpKhQL

[beesley]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NavLuzDeKOw

https://mobile.twitter.com/LPDonovan/status/1056178123513970688/video/1

I just watched both of these and now I can't stop

[MAINEiac4434]

https://twitter.com/golden4congress/status/1058120006632947719?s=21

Hell Yeah

[IceSpear]

So...what's the status here? How many votes are left to count, and does Golden have a good chance of pulling ahead after the RCV? I'd really like to win this one.

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

So...what's the status here? How many votes are left to count, and does Golden have a good chance of pulling ahead after the RCV? I'd really like to win this one.

Golden seems almost certain to win. The third party candidates told their voters to pref Golden 2nd.
He should just run for Senate in 2020 too. I don’t honk he’d survive a challenge in ME-2 as it is

Wait, you think he would probably lose reelection in 2020, but should run for Senate anyway?

[MT Treasurer]

So...what's the status here? How many votes are left to count, and does Golden have a good chance of pulling ahead after the RCV? I'd really like to win this one.

Color me surprised. Why?

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

So...what's the status here? How many votes are left to count, and does Golden have a good chance of pulling ahead after the RCV? I'd really like to win this one.

Golden seems almost certain to win. The third party candidates told their voters to pref Golden 2nd.
He should just run for Senate in 2020 too. I don’t honk he’d survive a challenge in ME-2 as it is

Wait, you think he would probably lose reelection in 2020, but should run for Senate anyway?

Yeah, (relatively) low risk, high reward. Winning a Senate seat that you have a limited shot of is much more valuable than a House seat you have limited shot of

What makes you think he would lose reelection, though?

[YE]

So...what's the status here? How many votes are left to count, and does Golden have a good chance of pulling ahead after the RCV? I'd really like to win this one.

Golden seems almost certain to win. The third party candidates told their voters to pref Golden 2nd.
He should just run for Senate in 2020 too. I don’t honk he’d survive a challenge in ME-2 as it is

Wait, you think he would probably lose reelection in 2020, but should run for Senate anyway?

Yeah, (relatively) low risk, high reward. Winning a Senate seat that you have a limited shot of is much more valuable than a House seat you have limited shot of

What makes you think he would lose reelection, though?

Trump will easily win here in 2020

Doubtful given the Dems did decent here this cycle but that’d depend on the nominee.

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

So...what's the status here? How many votes are left to count, and does Golden have a good chance of pulling ahead after the RCV? I'd really like to win this one.

Golden seems almost certain to win. The third party candidates told their voters to pref Golden 2nd.
He should just run for Senate in 2020 too. I don’t honk he’d survive a challenge in ME-2 as it is

Wait, you think he would probably lose reelection in 2020, but should run for Senate anyway?

Yeah, (relatively) low risk, high reward. Winning a Senate seat that you have a limited shot of is much more valuable than a House seat you have limited shot of

What makes you think he would lose reelection, though?

Trump will easily win here in 2020

I don't know why you say "easily."  It may be white and rural, but it's still in New England.

If Trump loses, I certainly don't see him carrying ME-02.

[YE]

So...what's the status here? How many votes are left to count, and does Golden have a good chance of pulling ahead after the RCV? I'd really like to win this one.

Golden seems almost certain to win. The third party candidates told their voters to pref Golden 2nd.
He should just run for Senate in 2020 too. I don’t honk he’d survive a challenge in ME-2 as it is

Wait, you think he would probably lose reelection in 2020, but should run for Senate anyway?

Yeah, (relatively) low risk, high reward. Winning a Senate seat that you have a limited shot of is much more valuable than a House seat you have limited shot of

What makes you think he would lose reelection, though?

Trump will easily win here in 2020

Doubtful given the Dems did decent here this cycle but that’d depend on the nominee.

After seeing how Dems performed in similar Obama-Trump seats like IL-12 and NY-23, etc, Golden’s performance is nothing short of amazing. I would hate for him to run for an uphill re-election in 2020 when he’d stand an equal (or arguably better) chance at the Senate seat

How did the other statewide Dems do in ME-02?

[IceSpear]

So...what's the status here? How many votes are left to count, and does Golden have a good chance of pulling ahead after the RCV? I'd really like to win this one.

Color me surprised. Why?

Why not? It's another seat. Also, we need more Flawless Beautiful men like Jared Golden in Congress. As opposed to Bruce Poliquin who, in the words of Mizzouian, "looks like a dingus."

I don't hate ALL #populists

[Xing]

I imagine that RCV will probably mean that Golden wins. I'm not sure we should write this off entirely in 2020. It's not like every Obama/Trump area went Republican this time. I think Trump wins it in a close race nationally, but probably by a significantly reduced margin.

[MAINEiac4434]

It’s happening

https://twitter.com/cristinawmtw/status/1060830288639651845?s=21

[Skill and Chance]

I imagine that RCV will probably mean that Golden wins. I'm not sure we should write this off entirely in 2020. It's not like every Obama/Trump area went Republican this time. I think Trump wins it in a close race nationally, but probably by a significantly reduced margin.

With RCV now in use in federal races, does it apply to Maine's EVs as well?

Also, if EV-by-CD is just a law in Maine and not in the state constitution, the new Dem trifecta might want to change it back to statewide WTA?  But then Nebraska could and surely would retaliate.  Probably better to pass a law that only takes effect if Nebraska goes to statewide WTA first or if Nebraska's districts are gerrymandered in 2022?

[Skill and Chance]

It’s happening

https://twitter.com/cristinawmtw/status/1060830288639651845?s=21

Golden is likely going to win the 2nd round and if not the 2nd, almost surely the 3rd round given that both independents were left-leaning.  However, keep in mind that the final "round" of RCV could well be between Roberts and Kavanaugh given that RCV has never been ruled on in federal court and Poliquin hinted he would sue on OMOV grounds if he won the 1st round and later lost. 

A SCOTUS ruling on this could actually get quite weird, because Thomas believes there is no constitutional basis for OMOV whatsoever, so he could plausibly be the 5th vote to allow states to use RCV in a concurrence.  It's also very plausible Gorsuch rejects OMOV on originalist grounds.  Could also see one  or more of the liberals seeing this as a threat to the Warren Court decisions protecting urban voters in apportionment/redistricting and agreeing with Poliquin's OMOV appeal.  Something like Thomas and Gorsuch, concurring with Ginsburg, with Sotomayor and Breyer to uphold RCV in federal elections 5/4, with dissents by Roberts, joined by Alito and Kavanaugh, and by Kagan.  Alternatively, Gorsuch strongly upholds OMOV on originalist grounds or Breyer strategically joins Kagan and concurs with Roberts and RCV fails 5/4, or partisanship reigns and Roberts decides it for Poliquin or Roberts saves RCV for institutional "no, we aren't an arm of the Republican Party" reasons like he saved Obamacare.  5 of the 9 votes could be "shaky" here.  I'm only sure of Ginsburg and Sotomayor yes and Alito and Kavanaugh no.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

It’s happening

https://twitter.com/cristinawmtw/status/1060830288639651845?s=21

Golden is likely going to win the 2nd round and if not the 2nd, almost surely the 3rd round given that both independents were left-leaning.  However, keep in mind that the final "round" of RCV could well be between Roberts and Kavanaugh given that RCV has never been ruled on in federal court and Poliquin hinted he would sue on OMOV grounds if he won the 1st round and later lost. 

A SCOTUS ruling on this could actually get quite weird, because Thomas believes there is no constitutional basis for OMOV whatsoever, so he could plausibly be the 5th vote to allow states to use RCV in a concurrence.  It's also very plausible Gorsuch rejects OMOV on originalist grounds.  Could also see one  or more of the liberals seeing this as a threat to the Warren Court decisions protecting urban voters in apportionment/redistricting and agreeing with Poliquin's OMOV appeal.  Something like Thomas and Gorsuch, concurring with Ginsburg, with Sotomayor and Breyer to uphold RCV in federal elections 5/4, with dissents by Roberts, joined by Alito and Kavanaugh, and by Kagan.  Alternatively, Gorsuch strongly upholds OMOV on originalist grounds or Breyer strategically joins Kagan and concurs with Roberts and RCV fails 5/4, or partisanship reigns and Roberts decides it for Poliquin or Roberts saves RCV for institutional "no, we aren't an arm of the Republican Party" reasons like he saved Obamacare.  5 of the 9 votes could be "shaky" here.  I'm only sure of Ginsburg and Sotomayor yes and Alito and Kavanaugh no.

I can't imagine any inherent federal constitutional issue with RCV.  The argument would almost certainly be over the process by which the reform was adopted (via citizen intiative as oposed to the state legislature).

[Virginiá]

I imagine that RCV will probably mean that Golden wins. I'm not sure we should write this off entirely in 2020. It's not like every Obama/Trump area went Republican this time. I think Trump wins it in a close race nationally, but probably by a significantly reduced margin.

With RCV now in use in federal races, does it apply to Maine's EVs as well?

Also, if EV-by-CD is just a law in Maine and not in the state constitution, the new Dem trifecta might want to change it back to statewide WTA?  But then Nebraska could and surely would retaliate.  Probably better to pass a law that only takes effect if Nebraska goes to statewide WTA first or if Nebraska's districts are gerrymandered in 2022?

Well apparently it was passed in 1969, and at first I wasn't sure if they just meant it went into effect after a previous amendment, but there is no EV amendment around that date:

http://legislature.maine.gov/lawlib/lldl/constitutionalamendments/index.html

So yes I think a simple statute change might work. I don't think it's even worth it though. It's just one EV, and like you said, it could inspire Nebraska to change. Although I guess NE has been trying to change theirs for a while now, so it's not exactly a novel idea for them. I'd be more worried about it triggering another round of scheming from Republicans, like that old RNC-backed idea where they wanted to use their large state-level power to change a bunch of states Democrats can win at the presidential level to CD-based allocation (like Virginia and Pennsylvania). Obviously they have a lot less to work with now, but still.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

Updates?

[Skill and Chance]

I imagine that RCV will probably mean that Golden wins. I'm not sure we should write this off entirely in 2020. It's not like every Obama/Trump area went Republican this time. I think Trump wins it in a close race nationally, but probably by a significantly reduced margin.

With RCV now in use in federal races, does it apply to Maine's EVs as well?

Also, if EV-by-CD is just a law in Maine and not in the state constitution, the new Dem trifecta might want to change it back to statewide WTA?  But then Nebraska could and surely would retaliate.  Probably better to pass a law that only takes effect if Nebraska goes to statewide WTA first or if Nebraska's districts are gerrymandered in 2022?

Well apparently it was passed in 1969, and at first I wasn't sure if they just meant it went into effect after a previous amendment, but there is no EV amendment around that date:

http://legislature.maine.gov/lawlib/lldl/constitutionalamendments/index.html

So yes I think a simple statute change might work. I don't think it's even worth it though. It's just one EV, and like you said, it could inspire Nebraska to change. Although I guess NE has been trying to change theirs for a while now, so it's not exactly a novel idea for them. I'd be more worried about it triggering another round of scheming from Republicans, like that old RNC-backed idea where they wanted to use their large state-level power to change a bunch of states Democrats can win at the presidential level to CD-based allocation (like Virginia and Pennsylvania). Obviously they have a lot less to work with now, but still.

On principal I don't think it should be done unless in retaliation for another state having already done it.  However, every state going to EV-by-CD with nonpartisan redistricting and stricter compactness requirements for VRA districts would IMO be better than statewide WTA.  Every state going to fully proportional EV allocation according to the statewide PV with a 10% statewide minimum threshold to qualify for EV would be even better. 

[rob in cal]

  Any feeling on whether rcv had a big impact on whether the independent candidates got significantly more votes than they otherwise would have because their supporters weren't worried about wasting their votes?  Also, why no Green candidate?