Georgia's Very Own Megathread! (v2)

[Skill and Chance]

I think the senate seat is clearly in reach if Trump loses reelection.  Would a "Beto" level of funding at the top of the ticket make either house of the state legislature competitive in 2020?  Because if not, it won't be competitive until the 2030's.

[Adam Griffin]

I think the senate seat is clearly in reach if Trump loses reelection.  Would a "Beto" level of funding at the top of the ticket make either house of the state legislature competitive in 2020?  Because if not, it won't be competitive until the 2030's.

House Democrats have closed half the gap between being in the super-minority to being in the majority over the past 3 years (from 120-60 to 105-75) by picking up a total of 15 seats. They need another 16 seats to take the chamber. There were 13 seats Tuesday where the GOP won by single digits - a few of which aren't centered on Metro Atlanta.

I mean, after seeing the kinds of swings we saw here Tuesday, I guess I've learned to say that anything is possible...but many of these seats already swung pretty substantially, so to double that effect would be a tall order even with tons of cash.

[Adam Griffin]

Another 340 provisional ballots have been counted since last night, bringing the total provisional counts to:

Abrams - 5,007 (69.06%)
Kemp - 2,181 (30.08%)
Metz - 62 (0.86%)

Obviously these 340 ballots came from heavily Republican turf, given that their composition was 2:1 in favor of Kemp. Based on those figures, these almost certainly came from a county Kemp won by 3:1 or more (and it was enough to narrow the provisional margin of victory for Abrams by 5 points).

[QAnonKelly]

Federal judge ruled on the side of the Abrams team today. Gwinnett will have to count the ballots where people accidentally put “2018” of their year of birth. Obviously Abrams still has a log way to go but it could very easily get Bordeaux over the hump. There’s at least 534 votes rejected because of issues with birth year

[lfromnj]

RIP woodall
Georgia GOP probably rips sandfords district in the 2020's and just goes for 5 metro atlanta D and the rest of Georgia rural hicks+ Forsyth = R. If Abrams was governor she could get 7 districts with one Savanah augusta + one SW + 3 SAfe D+ 2 Lean D in metro atlanta.

[QAnonKelly]

Bluestein says that there are 1400 votes left to count in Gwinnett. Could be done as soon as this afternoon

[Adam Griffin]

Looks like around another 4k ballots have been counted since noon yesterday. Of those, there are 2,538 additional provisional ballots that have been counted. This is enough to round Kemp's total to the tenth down to 50.2:

50.24% 1,977,502  Kemp
48.82% 1,921,680  Abrams
0.95%   37,206      Metz


Of all provisionals cast and counted:

72.05%  7,052  Abrams
27.13%  2,655  Kemp
0.82%    81      Metz

[Pericles]

Looks like around another 4k ballots have been counted since noon yesterday. Of those, there are 2,538 additional provisional ballots that have been counted. This is enough to round Kemp's total to the tenth down to 50.2:

50.24% 1,977,502  Kemp
48.82% 1,921,680  Abrams
0.95%   37,206      Metz


Of all provisionals cast and counted:

72.05%  7,052  Abrams
27.13%  2,655  Kemp
0.82%    81      Metz

Damn victory is so implausible yet so close at the same time.

[bandg]

Anyone know if write in votes are counted towards the 50% threshold. The state website isn’t reporting them but seems like the counties are.

[SCNCmod]

Anyone know if write in votes are counted towards the 50% threshold. The state website isn’t reporting them but seems like the counties are.

This is actually a good question... although I can't imagine there are very many... or anywhere close to enough to make any difference.

I think you would need something like 30,000 write in votes to get Kemp below 50%.

[bandg]

Anyone know if write in votes are counted towards the 50% threshold. The state website isn’t reporting them but seems like the counties are.

This is actually a good question... although I can't imagine there are very many... or anywhere close to enough to make any difference.

I think you would need something like 30,000 write in votes to get Kemp below 50%.

Answering my own question, some counties are reporting write-in votes while others are not. Thus, seems unlikely they will be included in the statewide count. Either way, this race is over.

[Adam Griffin]

"Qualified write-ins" would count (for declared write-in gubernatorial candidates; but even they usually aren't reflected in SoS online totals), but random "Mickey Mouse" votes and whatnot do not count as far as I know.

[Adam Griffin]

Columbus Mayor Teresa Tomlinson announces her plans when she leaves office

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[Adam Griffin]

Looks like around another 2,200 provisional ballots have been counted since 4 AM this morning. This narrowed Kemp's margin over Abrams by 837 votes (from 55,822 to 54,985).

50.23% 1,978,170  Kemp
48.83% 1,923,185  Abrams
0.95%   37,227      Metz


Of all provisionals cast and counted:

71.42%  8,557  Abrams
27.73%  3,323  Kemp
0.85%    102      Metz

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Any updates on GA-7? Does Bourdeaux still have a shot or is it hopeless?

[Adam Griffin]

Any updates on GA-7? Does Bourdeaux still have a shot or is it hopeless?

Unless there have been more provisional ballots affected by recent rulings than I'm aware of, I don't see her getting closer than 300 votes or so.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Any updates on GA-7? Does Bourdeaux still have a shot or is it hopeless?

Unless there have been more provisional ballots affected by recent rulings than I'm aware of, I don't see her getting closer than 300 votes or so.

I think they still are counting those absentee ballots that were rejected. They are counting them Thursday.

https://www.ajc.com/news/local-govt--politics/gwinnett-getting-ready-count-provisional-ballots/doLeXVB1mQjmwDMLxFXbBL/

[Calthrina950]

Any updates on GA-7? Does Bourdeaux still have a shot or is it hopeless?

Unless there have been more provisional ballots affected by recent rulings than I'm aware of, I don't see her getting closer than 300 votes or so.

It amazes me how Abrams and the Democrats continue to drag out this process. Kemp is holding over the 50% mark, and it doesn't seem like the margin has narrowed by that much. Exactly how many more ballots are there left to count at this point? If there's only a few thousand, then that probably won't be enough to force a runoff.

[lfromnj]

Any updates on GA-7? Does Bourdeaux still have a shot or is it hopeless?

Unless there have been more provisional ballots affected by recent rulings than I'm aware of, I don't see her getting closer than 300 votes or so.

It amazes me how Abrams and the Democrats continue to drag out this process. Kemp is holding over the 50% mark, and it doesn't seem like the margin has narrowed by that much. Exactly how many more ballots are there left to count at this point? If there only a few thousand, then that probably won't be enough to force a runoff.

yeah its annoying .
Bourdeoux is unlikely to win but its not unrealistic so its fine but Abrams is just acting annoying.

[Adam Griffin]

Writing's on the wall...

[Virginiá]

Writing's on the wall...

https://www.whitdem.org/multimedia/GAGubProj.gif

Would that result still be attainable even if a Democrat becomes president in 2020 and Kemp runs for reelection?

[Rookie Yinzer]

I wonder who will run in 2022. I’m all for an Abrams-Kemp rematch but who knows where she’ll be in four years. She’s destined for great things in or out of politics.

[Adam Griffin]

Would that result still be attainable even if a Democrat becomes president in 2020 and Kemp runs for reelection?

It's the average of the swing from the past 3 elections (2 of which occurred in GOP-friendly years), with the (variance) built on an average the strongest and weakest shifts for each party.

Until this year, GA has hardly shown a trend for responding to the national climate (if anything, there was an inverse correlation). Given how polarized the electorate is and the effects of demographic shifts, it's certainly possible. Even if we only improved by as much as the weakest swing (2010-2014), that's 49.9-49.1.

Kemp isn't going to enjoy the deference most GOP Governors have once in office, where 20% of the state (disproportionately Democrats) forget about him and either give him a positive rating or have no opinion. Kemp will be the equivalent of Trump at the state level, with his favorables never being able to climb much over 50%.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

CNN updated GA-7 to 140,279-139,746. I assume that is the provisionals. Difference is 533. It's certainly close enough to ask for a full recount.

[Virginiá]

^ Thanks Griff. Those are really good points actually. Hard to see how Kemp ever becomes popular under the current circumstances.