Israeli General Election (2019) II: Electric Boogaloo (17.9.2019)

[Walmart_shopper]

By the way, the chances of a 61 Likud-religious government are real, and definitely not comparable to the non-existent chance of a leftist win. They're not that far away from that. So I'd not be too confident before all the results are in.

Actually, I'm not sure that's correct at all. The right wing bloc traditionally underperforms their polling by a couple mandates (despite, or really because of, Likud overperforming by cannibalizing right wimg votes). Right now the Likud-religious bloc is stuck at 55-57 mandates (and the left at 53-55 mandates). The reason for left wing overperformance is thwt their voters are loyal and actually turn up to vote.  When you ask Labor voters if they are likely to vote and support Labor, it's like 80 percent, and their turnout is usually very strong. It is a small but inelastic core of voters. The right wing and settler parties, on the other hand, are highly eslastic and bounce between parties (and non-partcipation). Likud voters are only about 60 percent likely to say they will vote and will vote Likud.

It would be unsurprising for Likud to clear their polling by several mandates and beat Blue and White by 5 mandates. But they would do so only by turning out their voters and poaching a few seats from Shaked and the settlers. It would be almost unprecedented in contemporary Israeli electoral politics for the entire right bloc to outperform their polling by the 4 to 6 seats they need for a majority.

Otzmah Yehudit has been rising in some polling to 2.5 percent--and them getting over the threshold would obviously change the math. But that's still well short of the 3.5% threshold and, for all the reasons noted above, it seems unlikely they will somehow outperform their polling on election day.

[Walmart_shopper]

What would a secular revolution entail? Reform of the Chief Rabbinate? Civil marriage laws? Defunding of the Orthodox schools?

Civil and gay marriage. Marijuana legalization. Draft of Haredim. Ending funding to the religious groups increasingly present in Israeli schools. Putting secularism into the Basic Law. Allowing certain cities and neighborhoods to operate business and public transit on Saturdays. Vastly weakening the chief rabbinate. Legislating against any public gender separation. Defunding the Haredi sector. Slapping actual academic requirements on the Haredi schools that receive public funding despite not actually teaching anything.

All of which have at least 60 percent support in the public, so Likud won't need to be convinced much to support these measures.

Not going to happen. will happen in baby steps regardless or maybe even inspite of B&W. LOL. Doubt it. Not going to happen. Perhaps. Not going to happen. Not going to happen. Not going to happen. Not going to happen.

Sorry but Likud will never lead a secular revolution, B&W are really the defenders of secularism, and Lieberman is all talk but he will never do anything. Plus this government would be so short lived no one would want to upset the Haredi.

There is actually no reason for these things not to happen. A large and growing majority of voters and even Likud members support these reforms. The only people who do not support them are the Haredim, and as a general rule in Israeli politics offending the Haredim is good and not bad politics. Bibi's grip on power is dependent upon them, which explains his fealty. But in today's Israel it is recognized that you either join the Haredim or you beat them, and nobody wants to join them.

In any case, this secularization is happening with the Haredim in power. If they lose a place in government there is literally nothing stopping the legislation of these laws and an acceleration of secularization.

A lot of items of there don’t have the uniform support of B&W voters let alone Likud voters. Drafting Haredi will never happen and it’s a good thing

The draft of Haredim DID happen just five years ago when Lapid and Bennet worked to pass the draft law. I also oppose the draft of Haredim (and everyone else, by the way), but itbis one of the most politically simple things to do for a non-Haredi government.

[Hnv1]

What would a secular revolution entail? Reform of the Chief Rabbinate? Civil marriage laws? Defunding of the Orthodox schools?

Civil and gay marriage. Marijuana legalization. Draft of Haredim. Ending funding to the religious groups increasingly present in Israeli schools. Putting secularism into the Basic Law. Allowing certain cities and neighborhoods to operate business and public transit on Saturdays. Vastly weakening the chief rabbinate. Legislating against any public gender separation. Defunding the Haredi sector. Slapping actual academic requirements on the Haredi schools that receive public funding despite not actually teaching anything.

All of which have at least 60 percent support in the public, so Likud won't need to be convinced much to support these measures.

Not going to happen. will happen in baby steps regardless or maybe even inspite of B&W. LOL. Doubt it. Not going to happen. Perhaps. Not going to happen. Not going to happen. Not going to happen. Not going to happen.

Sorry but Likud will never lead a secular revolution, B&W are really the defenders of secularism, and Lieberman is all talk but he will never do anything. Plus this government would be so short lived no one would want to upset the Haredi.

There is actually no reason for these things not to happen. A large and growing majority of voters and even Likud members support these reforms. The only people who do not support them are the Haredim, and as a general rule in Israeli politics offending the Haredim is good and not bad politics. Bibi's grip on power is dependent upon them, which explains his fealty. But in today's Israel it is recognized that you either join the Haredim or you beat them, and nobody wants to join them.

In any case, this secularization is happening with the Haredim in power. If they lose a place in government there is literally nothing stopping the legislation of these laws and an acceleration of secularization.

A lot of items of there don’t have the uniform support of B&W voters let alone Likud voters. Drafting Haredi will never happen and it’s a good thing

The draft of Haredim DID happen just five years ago when Lapid and Bennet worked to pass the draft law. I also oppose the draft of Haredim (and everyone else, by the way), but itbis one of the most politically simple things to do for a non-Haredi government.

Do ask the IDF HR directorate how many Haredi did they draft by Lapid’s law. You will find that Haredi draft actually decreased.

[Hnv1]

Chanel 13 published tapes (probably provided by Kara) where Bibi and Kara are discussing matters regarding the communication market far after he was barred from interfering with it due to the pending investigation.

Chanel 12 published transcripts where Deri claims to have been approached by different figures in Likud about booting Bibi.

Something feels like tonight was the night the end of Bibi was in plain sight

[Walmart_shopper]

Chanel 13 published tapes (probably provided by Kara) where Bibi and Kara are discussing matters regarding the communication market far after he was barred from interfering with it due to the pending investigation.

Chanel 12 published transcripts where Deri claims to have been approached by different figures in Likud about booting Bibi.

Something feels like tonight was the night the end of Bibi was in plain sight

The sharks are definitely circling their prey. It's tough, though, because the Likud has ostensibly evolved into a Netanyahu personality cult. Everyone can see that he is driving the ship straight into the iceberg, but nobody can take over the wheel because "רק ביב" knows how the steer it. A Likud led by Gilad Erdan or whatever isn't really the Likud, and it certainly isn't going to win many elections. Obsessively knee-capping your potential successors means than when you are done (and Bibi IS done), then your party is done, too.

I am not a big Gantz fan, but you have to admit that for this reason his campaign has been brilliant. He has basically positioned himself as a liberal, uncorrupt version of Bibi, which is obviously the Bibi that the Great Middle of Israeli politics has desperately missed. And in that way he has positioned Blue and White as natural successor to the Likud as the big tent governing party. And in many ways it IS what Likud used to be--hawkish, peace-wary, pragmatic about the free market, liberal, secular. Likud without shin-kickers like Hazan and Regev or fundamentalist third templers or deputy foreign ministers who bizarrely won't shake hands with the opposite sex. I don't know if he can keep Blue and White together, but Gantz is clearly creating the Likud that even many Likudniks wish the Likud would be.

[Velasco]

Amnesty International denounces the deep-rooted discrimination of Palestinian MKs

https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2019/09/israel-discriminatory-measures-undermine-palestinian-representation-in-knesset/

Palestinians elected to Israel’s parliament, the Knesset, are being targeted by discriminatory regulations and legislation that undermine their ability to represent and defend the rights of the Palestinian minority population in Israel, Amnesty International said in a new briefing published today, ahead of upcoming Israeli elections on 17 September.

Elected but restricted: Shrinking space for Palestinian parliamentarians in Israel’s Knesset, details how the right to freedom of expression of Palestinian members of the Knesset (MKs) is threatened by discriminatory legislative changes, proposed bills and Knesset regulations. It also highlights the inflammatory rhetoric used by Israeli government ministers to stigmatize Palestinian MKs and exposes how bills put forward by Palestinian MKs have been unfairly disqualified on discriminatory grounds.

“Palestinian members of the Knesset in Israel are increasingly facing discriminatory attacks. Despite being democratically elected like their Jewish Israeli counterparts, Palestinian MKs are the target of deep-rooted discrimination and undue restrictions that hamstring their ability to speak out in defence of the rights of the Palestinian people,” said Saleh Higazi, Deputy Middle East and North Africa Director at Amnesty International.

Of course there are mentions to the infamous "Nation State Law" and the "divisive rhetoric" of the Israeli authorities, which "have threatened and smeared" Palestinian and Israeli human rights defenders and organizations like Amnesty International

[Oryxslayer]

Panels Politics has a poll that has Otzma passing the threshold, which would give the right-religious 60 seats to everyone else 60. Now this is an outlier, and the company/sponsor hasn't run a poll before so it could just be selection bias, but there is some value from the data. Otzma has gained ever since Zehut dropped out, gaining off that outsider right wing credibility. It also smells like last time, where the tiny minors were over-represented in polls during the last moments of the campaign, with them under-preforming as tactical voting goes into effect.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

the right-religious 60 seats to everyone else 60.

The ride never ends

[Oryxslayer]

the right-religious 60 seats to everyone else 60.

The ride never ends

I mean every other  poll has 55 Right religious, 55 Left/Arab, 10 Lieberman, which is arguably far more  interesting of a ride.

[Walmart_shopper]

Panels Politics has a poll that has Otzma passing the threshold, which would give the right-religious 60 seats to everyone else 60. Now this is an outlier, and the company/sponsor hasn't run a poll before so it could just be selection bias, but there is some value from the data. Otzma has gained ever since Zehut dropped out, gaining off that outsider right wing credibility. It also smells like last time, where the tiny minors were over-represented in polls during the last moments of the campaign, with them under-preforming as tactical voting goes into effect.

On the right it is always like that. Settlers get interested in all kinds of crazy and then come home to Bibi when they fear the left actually winning. It's like clockwork.

But Panels isn't great at all and Otzma isn't over tye threshold in any other poll, so it is a definite outlier.

[Walmart_shopper]

Although it's worth noting that Yisrael Hayom also has a poll this morning with Otzma passing the threshold and the Judea-stan coalition with 60 seats. It's also a very bad poll, and two more reputable polls yesterday had the right with 56 seats and Otzma not passing.

[Oryxslayer]

Although it's worth noting that Yisrael Hayom also has a poll this morning with Otzma passing the threshold and the Judea-stan coalition with 60 seats. It's also a very bad poll, and two more reputable polls yesterday had the right with 56 seats and Otzma not passing.

Said poll puts the right religious at 58, left/arab at 51, Lieberman at 11, so at still agrees with the overwhelming statistical average. The reason for this is that Otzma poached 2 of the 4 seats in the  poll from Yamina when compared to others from the same period. If Otzma is actually going to get close to or make it in, it requires the Yamina to get dragged down, since the two share the same voter pool. Maybe something has changed, but at this point I would still bet on the massive average and the trends from past elections that say Otzma won''t make it , but will trap a lot of voters off from the right.

[Velasco]

the right-religious 60 seats to everyone else 60.

The ride never ends

I mean every other  poll has 55 Right religious, 55 Left/Arab, 10 Lieberman, which is arguably far more  interesting of a ride.

It makes no sense to calculate "Right religious" vs "Left/Arab" because: a) Blue & White is not "the Left" and b) Gantz & Co will never make deals with the Palestinian minority. As most of you are posting, the likeliest outcome is a coalition between Likud, Blue & White and the Lieberman party... unless Bibi and the religious parties win a majority (and there's a chance for Bibi's survival with such an outcome). So I think there's a false dichotomy and the narrative of this election is misleading, as the real options are "centre-right and rightwing secular" vs "Right and religious". The "left" and the "Arabs" don't count.

[Oryxslayer]

the right-religious 60 seats to everyone else 60.

The ride never ends

I mean every other  poll has 55 Right religious, 55 Left/Arab, 10 Lieberman, which is arguably far more  interesting of a ride.

It makes no sense to calculate "Right religious" vs "Left/Arab" because: a) Blue & White is not "the Left" and b) Gantz & Co will never make deals with the Palestinian minority. As most of you are posting, the likeliest outcome is a coalition between Likud, Blue & White and the Lieberman party... unless Bibi and the religious parties win a majority (and there's a chance for Bibi's survival with such an outcome). So I think there's a false dichotomy and the narrative of this election is misleading, as the real options are "centre-right and rightwing secular" vs "Right and religious". The "left" and the "Arabs" don't count.

Left and right are ambiguous terms that have no universal tenants and change depending on the time and place. In this election, the Left is understood to be B&W, even though it may not fit any certain purity test based on expectations from a different time of place.

But the point here is that everyone who is in that left/Arab tent is going to suggest Gantz for PM when held to the fire (and they know their suggestions matter, or else they would suggest someone else, the Arabs especially), everyone in the right/religious tent will suggest Bibi, and Lieberman will suggest whomever complies with his wishes, which will most likely be B&W.

[Velasco]

the right-religious 60 seats to everyone else 60.

The ride never ends

I mean every other  poll has 55 Right religious, 55 Left/Arab, 10 Lieberman, which is arguably far more  interesting of a ride.

It makes no sense to calculate "Right religious" vs "Left/Arab" because: a) Blue & White is not "the Left" and b) Gantz & Co will never make deals with the Palestinian minority. As most of you are posting, the likeliest outcome is a coalition between Likud, Blue & White and the Lieberman party... unless Bibi and the religious parties win a majority (and there's a chance for Bibi's survival with such an outcome). So I think there's a false dichotomy and the narrative of this election is misleading, as the real options are "centre-right and rightwing secular" vs "Right and religious". The "left" and the "Arabs" don't count.

Left and right are ambiguous terms that have no universal tenants and change depending on the time and place. In this election, the Left is understood to be B&W, even though it may not fit any certain purity test based on expectations from a different time of place.

But the point here is that everyone who is in that left/Arab tent is going to suggest Gantz for PM when held to the fire (and they know their suggestions matter, or else they would suggest someone else, the Arabs especially), everyone in the right/religious tent will suggest Bibi, and Lieberman will suggest whomever complies with his wishes, which will most likely be B&W.

I get your point, but there are some problems with it. In the Israeli context, which has a clear right-wing bias, Gantz & Co are to the left of Bibi and his ultra-nationalist or religious allies. However, this doesn't imply B&W represents "the left". At this point, it's not even an ambiguous Third Way vehicle like that old party led by Tzipi Livni. The diminishing ranks of the Israeli Left nowadays seek refuge in the "Democratic Camp" or in the moribund Labour Party. B&W is more a big tent centre-right secular artifact that can make deals with other Zionist parties, either placed to its right or to its left. Moreover, there is not even a "Progressive/Arab" bloc because: a) B&W folks don't want to associate with the Palestinians; and b) even though the Hadash leader is willing to suggest Gantz as PM for pragmatic reasons (getting rid of Bibi) , there is a faction within the Joint List that is totally opposed. Also, even in the Israeli context, there are compelling reasons that prevent to classify B&W as "left-wing": a) there is no clear commitment to a peace process; and b) there is no clear opposition to discriminatory legislation like the "nation state law"

[America Needs R'hllor]

The Joint List, the Democratic Camp, Labour-Gesher and Kahol Lavan aren't considered "center left-arabs" because they represent the left, are allies or even not because they're all going to suggest Gantz. It's purely because they're not going to suggest Bibi, and as such are part of the bloc opposing him. That's why Lieberman is his own faction, while the ones certain to suggest Bibi- Likud, Yamina, haredim and Otzma- are thr right-religious bloc.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

how many Likud MK's could conceivably act as internal opposition to Bibi and join some kind of grand coalition without Netanyahu?

[Walmart_shopper]

how many Likud MK's could conceivably act as internal opposition to Bibi and join some kind of grand coalition without Netanyahu?

Nobody really knows. But the point is that the most senior members of Likud are also the least attached to Bibi. It is very, very similar to Trump and the Republican Party. While it appears that Bibi is the bone and marrow of the Likud party today (and I believe he is), the moment he loses a whiff of power he'll be dropped faster than a Trump tweet in the morning (just as the GOP won't spend much time mourning after a Trump loss in 2020). The problem is that Netanyahu has spent his career tearing down the Likud bench instead of building it, because of a paranoia about future challengers to his rule. It has kept the Likud pliant, but it has made his party and the political right impotent without him. That explains Likud officials' resentment of him, one reason why the right is somewhat of a paper tiger in Israel, and especially why Bibi's argument that it's either him or the left has particular resonance among right wing voters every election.

[Walmart_shopper]

A lot of pre-election polling is pointing to a very low turnout. That's what happened in the Spanish repeat epection a few years ago, although the low turnout failed to significantly benefit any one party. In Israel, though, a low turnout will have a clear benefit to the sectoral parties (Haredim, Otzma, Joint List) and the left wing parties (whose voters, like Haredim, turn out in high numbers every election). The clear loser in any low turnout situation is the Likud (though not necessarily the right wing). That scenario would at the same time give Israel a more moderate government led by Blue and White and yet still give more extreme voices a firm foot in the Knesset and public life. So an election that erodes centrist power could paradoxically produce a very moderate government.

[Estrella]

If the result is a grand coalition (or any coalition, for that matter) without Bibi, could he try to start a new party aimed at fighting against muh leftist judges and keeping him out of jail? Maybe it could work, if he's still so popular.

[Walmart_shopper]

If the result is a grand coalition (or any coalition, for that matter) without Bibi, could he try to start a new party aimed at fighting against muh leftist judges and keeping him out of jail? Maybe it could work, if he's still so popular.

The assumption is that he will try to somehow overturn the election result. He'd rather be dead in a ditch than have to accept an elected government that opposes him.

[Famous Mortimer]

If Bibi loses he can flee to the United States. Israel has an extradition agreement with Israel but he can just claim to be fleeing political oppression and Trump will refuse to extradite him, not as if Israel doesn't violate the agreement all the time to protect various Jewish American deadbeat dads and/or sex criminals. Biden would also probably refuse to extradite Bibi and if worse comes to worst he can just hide behind a human barricade of Boomers like Hamas hiding behind a bunch of school kids.

[Estrella]

If the result is a grand coalition (or any coalition, for that matter) without Bibi, could he try to start a new party aimed at fighting against muh leftist judges and keeping him out of jail? Maybe it could work, if he's still so popular.

The assumption is that he will try to somehow overturn the election result. He'd rather be dead in a ditch than have to accept an elected government that opposes him.

Is there any remotely realistic way it could be done? Like, if he really wanted to, I guess he could convince/threaten Rivlin into dissolving Knesset and calling yet another election, but that would lead to a huge backlash. But IMO the most dramatic way this whole thing could end is Bibi fleeing the country (and even then, where to?)

[Hnv1]

If the result is a grand coalition (or any coalition, for that matter) without Bibi, could he try to start a new party aimed at fighting against muh leftist judges and keeping him out of jail? Maybe it could work, if he's still so popular.

The assumption is that he will try to somehow overturn the election result. He'd rather be dead in a ditch than have to accept an elected government that opposes him.

Is there any remotely realistic way it could be done? Like, if he really wanted to, I guess he could convince/threaten Rivlin into dissolving Knesset and calling yet another election, but that would lead to a huge backlash. But IMO the most dramatic way this whole thing could end is Bibi fleeing the country (and even then, where to?)

I assume calling the election results fraudulent and calling his supporters to march the streets and demand “fair” elections.
Not sure he will have a majority to dissolve the Knesset again, but if he rattles the Sabres enough and creates a legitimacy problem for any other candidate’s attempt to form a government he could pull it off. Basically democracy has no legal solution to this sort of occurrences. The answer lies in the political battleground

[Walmart_shopper]

Otzmah Yehudit, the Kahanist party, is now pretty consistently passing the threshold. That's terrifying, but I am dubious that they'll actually slip in. It is also notable that even with Otzmah in the right wing still has only 58 mandates and Blue and White are now consistently leading Likud by one