Israeli General Election (2019) II: Electric Boogaloo (17.9.2019)

[Oryxslayer]

I apologise for asking what I imagine is an obvious question, but, do settlers in the West Bank and Golan Heights get to vote?

Yes, but they are not at all numerous: the Golan and the West bank cast the lowest and second lowest numbers of votes of any Israeli region. Polling stations are less frequent and only in some settlements. The voters themselves tend to prefer parties that support further expansion into the West Bank, with URWP getting far more votes in the settlements than in Israel general. The Golan is far more integrated and has been de facto part of Israel for a while, and so her politics are far less right wing than the West Bank, but still leans right of the nation overall.

I have read settlers represent 8% of the electoral roll and in a recent election Netanyahu called them to vote against the "Arab hordes". As everybody knows, Palestinians in the West Bank can't vote and are deprived of basic rights. Palestinians within legal borders are Israeli citizens. On the other hand, Palestinians in East Jerusalem are usually rejected to become Israelis

https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/.premium-east-jerusalem-palestinians-face-uphill-battle-in-bid-for-israeli-citizenship-1.6844543

Regarding the Golan Heights, I think that most of the original inhabitants are Druze with a status of stateless persons. A majority of Druze rejects to become Israeli and remains loyal to the Syrian state.

Gotta be honest, as instinctively pro-Israel as I am the fact that this means Palestinians living around the settlements can’t vote but the settlers can doesn’t sit right with me. Imo if Israel is serious about convincing people they aren’t planning to annex the entirety of the West Bank they shouldn’t let settlers vote.

In my eyes its a grey area because settlers are  citizens and want Israeli representation, but at the same time clearly live in illegal territory. One  of the easier ways to solve this dilemma would be to approve an consulate/vote abroad style of system for foreign residents beyond the diplomatic core, something that is used in many modern democracies to capture their citizens living beyond their boarders. It would solve the grey area for the West bank voters in their favor...but it also would give the vote to a bunch of liberal American Residents so it probably wouldn't be approved unless the post-Bibi secular nationalist government takes the helm.

[Oryxslayer]

Other News.

 Bibi had a bad day yesterday which has now caught up to him via the headlines. Bolton, Trump's Iran about-face, and Gaza militants targeted him in middle of a rally, forcing things to be called off and Bibi to be escorted to safety.

If you have free articles left, The New Yorker summarized the current political scene and internal machinations today. It's a very well written piece.

[Velasco]

Gotta be honest, as instinctively pro-Israel as I am the fact that this means Palestinians living around the settlements can’t vote but the settlers can doesn’t sit right with me. Imo if Israel is serious about convincing people they aren’t planning to annex the entirety of the West Bank they shouldn’t let settlers vote.

That's the point. Israelis take for granted that settlers outside internationally recognized borders are entitled to vote, either in the West Bank or in the Golan Heights. On the contrary, only those Palestinians living within the Israeli border prior to 1967 are entitled to participate in elections. There exists a clear imbalance, a situation of discrimination that is always omitted. This omission is intentional. The Israel-Palestine conflict is deep rooted and extremely poisonous. I don't have personal links to the Middle East region, but I usually feel sympathy for he weakest side (I mean civil society, not necessarily political leadership). In any case, I think it's obvious there is a plan to annex the maximum amount of territory in the West Bank. Netanyahu and Gantz agree on the annexation of the Jordan Valley, for instance. Otherwise Israel would have two options to solve the conflict: a) committing to the two-state solution and withdrawing from most of the West Bank; and b) granting citizenship rights to all Palestinians, in order to establish a single democratic dtate from the Jordan to the Mediterranean Sea.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Gotta be honest, as instinctively pro-Israel as I am the fact that this means Palestinians living around the settlements can’t vote but the settlers can doesn’t sit right with me. Imo if Israel is serious about convincing people they aren’t planning to annex the entirety of the West Bank they shouldn’t let settlers vote.

I understand that concern, but we're not just going to deprive Israeli citizens who live in a land where Israeli policy has very direct impact of their right to vote. The Palestinians in that region aren't Israeli citizens. It's obviously not a good situation- the only way to solve it is a two state solution where the major settlement blocs go to Israel in exchange for different land.

Regarding the Golan Heights, I think that most of the original inhabitants are Druze with a status of stateless persons. A majority of Druze rejects to become Israeli and remains loyal to the Syrian state.

As expected, a contorted painting of the complexity of the Golan Heights only meant to make Israel seem evil. The only reason the Druze in there "remain loyal to the Syrian state" is that they fear retribution from its murderous leadership- if that means loyalty to you, then I have a kind and benevolent leader (who gasses his own people) to sell you. Anyway, since the civil war broke out the percentage of Druze people seeking citizenship jumped substantially, and it seems like we're going towards normalization.

[Famous Mortimer]

A significant number of MKs live in settlements.

[Oryxslayer]

Question for Israeli: right now, the media that I can access are going wild with Bibi's incident in the south. For example, some are noting how this is nice show of how Bibi failed to follow up on his campaign promises over the years: failed to annex and aggressively settle the WB, failed on his promises to do something about Iran, and failed on his promises to isolate and crush Hamas. All issues that cropped up into the news, just at the same time Bibi was re-upping those pledges.

My question is: Is Bibi's incident in Ashdod a big deal over there, or not so much?

[Walmart_shopper]

Question for Israeli: right now, the media that I can access are going wild with Bibi's incident in the south. For example, some are noting how this is nice show of how Bibi failed to follow up on his campaign promises over the years: failed to annex and aggressively settle the WB, failed on his promises to do something about Iran, and failed on his promises to isolate and crush Hamas. All issues that cropped up into the news, just at the same time Bibi was re-upping those pledges.

My question is: Is Bibi's incident in Ashdod a big deal over there, or not so much?

It is a big deal in the sense that it is rich in symbolism and is getting a lot of media attention. Bibi tried to kneecap those optics by effectively pre-announcing a military campaign in Gaza. The problem for Netanyahu is that his Gaza policy is one of his big weak spots. He is perceived at home as being too lenient and gun shy and abroad as barbaric and unmoved by human rights concerns. More than anything, it is widely believed that Bibi relies on Hamas to polish his national security credentials before elections (which Hamas obliges knowing that Bibi is a cash cow for the strip). To have the Hamas that he has used for many years to then send him running before the election is awfully powerful.

To be totally frank, for Likud voters the Netanyahu personality cult is so strong that it probably doesn't hurt him much (because nothing seems to with them). But the few swing voters whom Likud bleeds to Liberman or the right wing are really important in a close election.

[Oryxslayer]

Question for Israeli: right now, the media that I can access are going wild with Bibi's incident in the south. For example, some are noting how this is nice show of how Bibi failed to follow up on his campaign promises over the years: failed to annex and aggressively settle the WB, failed on his promises to do something about Iran, and failed on his promises to isolate and crush Hamas. All issues that cropped up into the news, just at the same time Bibi was re-upping those pledges.

My question is: Is Bibi's incident in Ashdod a big deal over there, or not so much?

It is a big deal in the sense that it is rich in symbolism and is getting a lot of media attention. Bibi tried to kneecap those optics by effectively pre-announcing a military campaign in Gaza. The problem for Netanyahu is that his Gaza policy is one of his big weak spots. He is perceived at home as being too lenient and gun shy and abroad as barbaric and unmoved by human rights concerns. More than anything, it is widely believed that Bibi relies on Hamas to polish his national security credentials before elections (which Hamas obliges knowing that Bibi is a cash cow for the strip). To have the Hamas that he has used for many years to then send him running before the election is awfully powerful.

To be totally frank, for Likud voters the Netanyahu personality cult is so strong that it probably doesn't hurt him much (because nothing seems to with them). But the few swing voters whom Likud bleeds to Liberman or the right wing are really important in a close election.

Sounds similar to what I thought, which was that if it does end up as an 'October Surprise' it would send voters from Likud rightwards, and not really matter for B&W/Likud contest.

On thee  polling front the Knesset Channel has what right now is an outlier poll which looks like basically every other poll except the four seats that might be apportioned  over to Otzma are  now in  Likuds corner. We will probably see after everyone releases their final polls tomorrow if it remains an outlier, but Knesset Channel has a history of favoring the right in their polls: they are the only one to put the Right/Religious Govt on 60 seats, and were the first to say Otzma could make it in. Maagar Mochot also released a poll, this one conforms to the general trend-line for the past month or so.

[Hnv1]

I’ll publish my prediction on Monday. But I feel Bibi might pull 61 narrow right after all

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/jesskcoleman/status/1172263037107154945

The Gevelt begins.

[America Needs R'hllor]

I’ll publish my prediction on Monday. But I feel Bibi might pull 61 narrow right after all

Agreed. It's a tight affair.

[xelas81]

I’ll publish my prediction on Monday. But I feel Bibi might pull 61 narrow right after all

Agreed. It's a tight affair.

what would happen with 60-60?

[America Needs R'hllor]

I’ll publish my prediction on Monday. But I feel Bibi might pull 61 narrow right after all

Agreed. It's a tight affair.

what would happen with 60-60?

Bibi can't form his preferred government. He needs 61 without Lieberman.

[Hnv1]

I’ll publish my prediction on Monday. But I feel Bibi might pull 61 narrow right after all

Agreed. It's a tight affair.

what would happen with 60-60?

He can win the vote of confidence if he convinces one MK against to abstain

[Walmart_shopper]

My prediction:

Likud 33
Blue and White 31
Joint List 13
Yisrael Beiteinu 8
Yamina 8
Shas 8
UTJ 8
Democratic Camp 6
Labor 5

Religious-right 57
Liberman/center-left 63

Bibi goes to jail. Likud-Blue wnd White-Liberman unity government is formed.

[Walmart_shopper]

I’ll publish my prediction on Monday. But I feel Bibi might pull 61 narrow right after all

It is worth noting that not a single credible public poll in the last four months has shown Netanyahu with a coalition of 61 mandates, including among the polls that show Otzmah getting into the Knesset. But the race is nevertheless close enough that a small polling error (or, really, about 50 small polling errors) could launch Netanyahu and his ghoulish gang of far right parties into a majority. I think that's rather unlikely, but that it remains a real possibility is, of course, horrifying.

[Oryxslayer]

And so, with Erev Shabbat, the official polling ban goes into effect. Other then the previously stated Maagar Mochot and Knesset Channel, we got a final poll from Kantar and Smith. Maybe more will come, but the deadline is near. Both did not follow the  outlier direction pushed by the  Knesset Channel and kept to the established trend of the  past four months of neither the pro or anti  Netanyahu blocks having a majority, unless YB is thrown on one side  or another. This concludes the official polling period -  no poll has given the right-religious government a majority and the closest has always been the polls from the Knesset Channel with Bibi on 60 seats.

EDIT: Channel 12/13 both released polls right before the deadline. Their polls conform both to the status quo from the past few months, and to the trendlines observed below.

Now there are a few nuggets to pick out of the final days wort of data. First, even if we exclude the Knesset Channel outlier, it appears that both B&W and Likud are trending upwards  once more, likely strategic voting. Interestingly, the top-two consolidation has been at the expense of the Haredi and Left parties, not YB or Yamina like expected. Otzma continues to get polled right on the threshold of entry, so the  party likely will miss the Knesset once Gevelt ensues.

Perhaps the  most interesting piece from these final polls is the Smith numbers. Comparing to their last poll, the Joint List jumped up a full three Seats, well beyond the MOE. They are  merely the most notable, but the other  polls also show spikes for the Arabs. What this tells me is that even the  pollsters still have only a limited idea of what the end turnout is going to be. This is probably the most important variable this election, since  everyone is clearly in a camp and it is taking titanic efforts to move to other parties.

 So this leads me to my Election prediction. Israel politics are way to volatile for me to want to put my finger on any one prediction. I expressed these same  feelings last April, but I still made a prediction: that both B&W and Likud would overshoot their polling. That ended up happening. So I will make a similarly big-picture prediction: Turnout is going to make a mess of polls. Turnout will be  lower, but in some communities like the Arabs, it will be higher than April. The  question is, how lower, and who gets negatively effected? Traditionally, the left and Haredi benefit from lower turnout, but the unusual circumstances of this election make these  past projections useless. It could be that one camp sits at home in protest in some form (likelier to be Likudites if it occurs en masse to one camp), we don't know.

If you had to get me to come down on a end result though I would call No overall majority, but that seems rather obvious, doesn't it? I think I saw a statistical analysis today that said it was like 40-50-10 for Religious-No Control-Left, but the polls will of course be off.

[Velasco]

I'll make a prediction, just for fun.

Likud 32
B&W 30
Joint List 11
Yamina 9
Yisrael Beitenu 8
UTJ 8
Shas 7
Democratic Camp 6
Labour 5
Otzma 4

Bibi+Religious+Far Right 60
Opposition 60 (Right 38, Centre-Left 11, Palestinians 11)

Rightwing secular 70 (Likud+B&W+YB)
Opposition 50 (Religious 15, Far Right 13, Palestinians 11, Centre-Left 11)

 I hope it fails because the Joint List and the Democratic Camp get better results, extremist parties underperform and Kahanists are below threshold.

[urutzizu]

Final Polls by Channel 12 and 13 have Right-Religious on 59 and 58 Seats respectively with B&W and Likud tied on 32 and Otzma in. Many have talked about Otzma not getting in, but what if Labor misses the threshold? They have been at 4 Seats for 3 of the last 4 Polls.

Under the Assumption that a consolidation takes place similar to April, then it would probably throw out both Otzma and Labor. Because Otzma is polling lower in the first place however, less votes would likely be wasted on them than on Labor, who would only miss the Threshold narrowly. Probably the Right-Religious Bloc would then have at least 60 Seats. If there is no consolidation and Otzma miss the threshold while Labor dont, then i find it difficult to see how Bibi can reach 60 Seats. If both make the threshold, then it seems to be margin of error.

[Oryxslayer]

I'll also throw down another (hopefully obvious) prediction: if Otzma gets in, there will not be 61 votes for a religious government. If there are 61 votes, Otzma will have fallen below the threshold.

This should be a fairly self-explanatory prediction, because turnout would have to be (really) wack or Bibi's gevelt will have had to failed for both of the above to be false.

Final Polls by Channel 12 and 13 have Right-Religious on 59 and 58 Seats respectively with B&W and Likud tied on 32 and Otzma in. Many have talked about Otzma not getting in, but what if Labor misses the threshold? They have been at 4 Seats for 3 of the last 4 Polls.

Under the Assumption that a consolidation takes place similar to April, then it would probably throw out both Otzma and Labor. Because Otzma is polling lower in the first place however, less votes would likely be wasted on them than on Labor, who would only miss the Threshold narrowly. Probably the Right-Religious Bloc would then have at least 60 Seats. If there is no consolidation and Otzma miss the threshold while Labor dont, then i find it difficult to see how Bibi can reach 60 Seats. If both make the threshold, then it seems to be margin of error.

It seems to me that labour are dancing on the four side of 4 and 5 seats, whereas Otzma are dancing on the 0 and 4 threshold. This makes sense, labour last cycle got 4.43% and thats kinda where polls place them now, after they lost all the Gesher voters since June. Consolidation I feel sends them into the 3.6% range, which should be safe for 4 seats.

[America Needs R'hllor]

I guess I'll give my prediction too, even though it might change by Tuesday and it means practically nothing in our volatile system:

Likud 36
Blue and White 33
Joint List 11
Shas 8
UTJ 8
Yisrael Beiteinu 7
Yamina 7
Democratic Camp 6
Labor 4
Otzma 0

Religious-right 59
Center-left 54
Lieberman 7

[Walmart_shopper]

I'll also throw down another (hopefully obvious) prediction: if Otzma gets in, there will not be 61 votes for a religious government. If there are 61 votes, Otzma will have fallen below the threshold.

This should be a fairly self-explanatory prediction, because turnout would have to be (really) wack or Bibi's gevelt will have had to failed for both of the above to be false.

Final Polls by Channel 12 and 13 have Right-Religious on 59 and 58 Seats respectively with B&W and Likud tied on 32 and Otzma in. Many have talked about Otzma not getting in, but what if Labor misses the threshold? They have been at 4 Seats for 3 of the last 4 Polls.

Under the Assumption that a consolidation takes place similar to April, then it would probably throw out both Otzma and Labor. Because Otzma is polling lower in the first place however, less votes would likely be wasted on them than on Labor, who would only miss the Threshold narrowly. Probably the Right-Religious Bloc would then have at least 60 Seats. If there is no consolidation and Otzma miss the threshold while Labor dont, then i find it difficult to see how Bibi can reach 60 Seats. If both make the threshold, then it seems to be margin of error.

It seems to me that labour are dancing on the four side of 4 and 5 seats, whereas Otzma are dancing on the 0 and 4 threshold. This makes sense, labour last cycle got 4.43% and thats kinda where polls place them now, after they lost all the Gesher voters since June. Consolidation I feel sends them into the 3.6% range, which should be safe for 4 seats.

Labor has a large and active enough membership (people who will show up to vote and vote Labor no matter what) that unless it is a massively high turnout they'll get across the threshold. They have a lot of older, union voters who are very reliable.

[Walmart_shopper]

It goes without saying that Israeli Jews and their pollsters don't understand the Arab community. But I think a lot of people will he surprised on Tuesday night how well the Joint List does. They currently have ten seats, after an April election in which only 49% of Arab voters turned out due to boycott efforts and the Joint List fragmenting in half. The Joint List is back together, the boycott is (mostly) off, and polling shows that quite unlike the Jewish vote, which is expected to crater in terms of turnout, the Arab vote will have a modest tick upwards to a turnout in the mid-50s. If Jewish turnout falls 10% (or more) and Arab turnout rises 5%, the Joint List can expect at least another 2 or 3 mandates in addition to the ten they have now. Moreover, given Arab resentment of Ehud Barak, the sizable Arab-Meretz vote may bleed over to the Joint List.

The Jewish vote is basically polarized amd static. It is roughly 60-40 in favor of the religious-right bloc. Contrary to what many believe, that number has been fixed for many years and the right wing is not actually growing. If Arab turnout matched Jewish turnout the right would simply not have a majority. While I don't expect Arab turnout to necessarily match Jewish turnout, an overall low turnout election in which 60% of Arabs vote could give the Joint List 15 mandates and possibly shift the majority to the center left. It is a wildcard that is often ignored, but the entire political landscape could be totally altered if the Arab sector woke up on Tuesday and actually flocked to the polls. There is a better chance of that happening than people realize.

[Walmart_shopper]

I also have a sneaking suspicion that Blue and White is waiting until tomorrow night to announce that Lapid has decided to cancel the rotation agreement with Gantz, leaving the more broadly popular Gantz as the party's sole candidate for prime minister. The Channel 13 poll yesterday gave 3 more mandates to Blue and White if Lapid nixed the rotation. That would probably be a major gamechanger. And with victory so, so close, it would be just plain weird for Lapid to die on that hill.

[Oryxslayer]

If Bibi fails to get 60 mandates for the religious right (repeating last performance) he's pretty much boned, isn't he? The repeat election has forced Netanyahu to put all his eggs in the religious-right basket, (which is a big basket and has won before) and in effect  has solidified the opposition against him. Like if this was any other election, I could see minor left parties flipping under enough portfolio bribery, or B&W MKs could easily be poached since they were former Likudites. But the thing holding the opposition together is a refusal to accept Bibi as PM, or a rejection of his Immunity Law which goes hand in hand these days with PM Bibi. There other governments available to Bibi, building a Grand coalition with B&W or taking YB's offer and building a non-Haredi right govt after poaching from the left, but both require the sticking points that are holding the opposition together to give way.

So even if Bibi gets more MKs than Gantz, hes got problems if he  lacks access to 61 MKs. Likud backbenchers, and more importantly the  minor right, won't go for another costly election. Another election also won't stave off court hearings. MK poaching is a unlikely scenario considering he is the sole reason the opposition exists this cycle.

So here's the question, is a Likud civil was basically guaranteed if the religious right fails to get 60 seats? I see it's fairly likely, despite Bibi's "pledge," that the old guard moves to replace him so as to get access to the  other governments. But the Bibi lackies won't have it, sooo...... fracture? And if it fractures, that is essentially a free Gantz govt until Likud can get their house in order.

All this because one  domino in the static Jewish vote fell over and is now eager to play the Brutus to Bibi's Caesar.