Israeli General Election (2019) II: Electric Boogaloo (17.9.2019)

[Oryxslayer]

It goes without saying that Israeli Jews and their pollsters don't understand the Arab community. But I think a lot of people will he surprised on Tuesday night how well the Joint List does. They currently have ten seats, after an April election in which only 49% of Arab voters turned out due to boycott efforts and the Joint List fragmenting in half. The Joint List is back together, the boycott is (mostly) off, and polling shows that quite unlike the Jewish vote, which is expected to crater in terms of turnout, the Arab vote will have a modest tick upwards to a turnout in the mid-50s. If Jewish turnout falls 10% (or more) and Arab turnout rises 5%, the Joint List can expect at least another 2 or 3 mandates in addition to the ten they have now. Moreover, given Arab resentment of Ehud Barak, the sizable Arab-Meretz vote may bleed over to the Joint List.

The Jewish vote is basically polarized amd static. It is roughly 60-40 in favor of the religious-right bloc. Contrary to what many believe, that number has been fixed for many years and the right wing is not actually growing. If Arab turnout matched Jewish turnout the right would simply not have a majority. While I don't expect Arab turnout to necessarily match Jewish turnout, an overall low turnout election in which 60% of Arabs vote could give the Joint List 15 mandates and possibly shift the majority to the center left. It is a wildcard that is often ignored, but the entire political landscape could be totally altered if the Arab sector woke up on Tuesday and actually flocked to the polls. There is a better chance of that happening than people realize.

This is what I meant when i said wacky turnout is going to make a mess of polls, things can get weird. Especially if the Jewish dropoff is among the younger age groups, which will hurt Bibi more (because military youths), regardless of how many people clutch pearls over latte sipping Tel Aviv millennials sitting out. The interesting thing is how that 60-40 Jewish vote has basically been cultivated by Bibi so he would have permanent majorities, but then one party deciding it was time to break ranks and take their loyal 5% to the opposition. And if the religious right loses voters to the threshold like  usual, you can see how 60-40 can easily become something like 52-48, and that ignoring the Arabs and how well they turn out.

I also have a sneaking suspicion that Blue and White is waiting until tomorrow night to announce that Lapid has decided to cancel the rotation agreement with Gantz, leaving the more broadly popular Gantz as the party's sole candidate for prime minister. The Channel 13 poll yesterday gave 3 more mandates to Blue and White if Lapid nixed the rotation. That would probably be a major gamechanger. And with victory so, so close, it would be just plain weird for Lapid to die on that hill.

Really? I was under the  impression that Gantz had a reputation in some circles as a bumbling rookie, while Lapid was essentially the bad cop to Gantz's good cop, rallying the Liberal base against the Haredi. But if it works it works.

[America Needs R'hllor]

I also have a sneaking suspicion that Blue and White is waiting until tomorrow night to announce that Lapid has decided to cancel the rotation agreement with Gantz, leaving the more broadly popular Gantz as the party's sole candidate for prime minister. The Channel 13 poll yesterday gave 3 more mandates to Blue and White if Lapid nixed the rotation. That would probably be a major gamechanger. And with victory so, so close, it would be just plain weird for Lapid to die on that hill.

The question is in whose expense, though. If such a decision would cause Labour-Gesher or the Democratic Camp to fall below the threshold, it'd guarantee 61 for Bibi.

[Estrella]

I also have a sneaking suspicion that Blue and White is waiting until tomorrow night to announce that Lapid has decided to cancel the rotation agreement with Gantz, leaving the more broadly popular Gantz as the party's sole candidate for prime minister. The Channel 13 poll yesterday gave 3 more mandates to Blue and White if Lapid nixed the rotation. That would probably be a major gamechanger. And with victory so, so close, it would be just plain weird for Lapid to die on that hill.

Really? I was under the  impression that Gantz had a reputation in some circles as a bumbling rookie, while Lapid was essentially the bad cop to Gantz's good cop, rallying the Liberal base against the Haredi. But if it works it works.

Gantz might be seen as a bumbling rookie (I read an article that speculated that he keeps himself out of the news to prevent people comparing him to Bibi, who is still seen as more trustworthy), but he's a military man and has the image that goes with it, while many voters see Lapid as some pansy rich latte-sipping metropolitan. Perhaps some right-wingers won't be as motivated to turn out when there's no danger of Lapid ending up as PM?

[Estrella]

Someone's getting desperate.

https://www.jpost.com/Israel-Elections/Netanyahu-calls-emergency-meeting-days-before-election-601645

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu requested an emergency meeting with the head of the Central Elections Committee, Supreme Court Judge, Hanan Melcer, ahead of Tuesday's election, following a report of widespread voter fraud in the Arab sector in the April election.   

“They will try to steal the election," Netanyahu said in an interview with KAN 11 on Saturday night.

The Likud said the findings of the investigation were grave and indicate that the election was “stolen” from Netanyahu, because without forged votes, the Balad-United Arab List faction might not have crossed the electoral threshold, Likud might have had two more seats and the second election could have been averted.

Bibi is probably too toast for this to work like "teh Arabs are going to vote!1!11!!" did in 2015, but it does show that he won't stop at anything. I really don't wanna see what tantrums he'll be throwing if/when he loses.

[danny]

You can tell from their campaign that both Labour and the Democratic Camp are are doing badly in the polls. both are now warning against voting for Blue and White, since they might fail to make it and give Bibi a majority.

[Hnv1]

You can tell from their campaign that both Labour and the Democratic Camp are are doing badly in the polls. both are now warning against voting for Blue and White, since they might fail to make it and give Bibi a majority.

They’re doing badly because they campaigned badly. Labour ran for an absurd socialist platform and Sephardi “look”, problem is that bar for hipsters in Tel Aviv cares for this. The democratic camp ran as of they’re the Democratic Party. Green new deal and other gimmicks. Problem is there aren’t that many people in Israel who really like the west wing, and they lost their left to the joint list

[America Needs R'hllor]

You can tell from their campaign that both Labour and the Democratic Camp are are doing badly in the polls. both are now warning against voting for Blue and White, since they might fail to make it and give Bibi a majority.

They’re doing badly because they campaigned badly. Labour ran for an absurd socialist platform and Sephardi “look”, problem is that bar for hipsters in Tel Aviv cares for this. The democratic camp ran as of they’re the Democratic Party. Green new deal and other gimmicks. Problem is there aren’t that many people in Israel who really like the west wing, and they lost their left to the joint list

Yeah their campaigns were just bad, especially the Democratic Camp's. I won't say the Green New Deal plan is the bad part- it was a really decent plan that Israelis SHOULD care about if we want a normal country and not a huge traffic jam, but the rest... eh. Attacking Orly Levy was a very bad look that turned off a lot of people, and generally were never inspiring or interesting. Labour did run a good campaign for socialists, but it's just too small a segement and for the rest of the left there was really 0 reason for them to run alone.

[Hnv1]

Prediction beta version
Likud 36
B&W 35
Joint List 9
YB 8
Shas 8
UTJ 8
Rightward 7
Democratic camp 5
Labour 4

Bibi bloc 59
Rest 61

[Hnv1]

You can tell from their campaign that both Labour and the Democratic Camp are are doing badly in the polls. both are now warning against voting for Blue and White, since they might fail to make it and give Bibi a majority.

They’re doing badly because they campaigned badly. Labour ran for an absurd socialist platform and Sephardi “look”, problem is that bar for hipsters in Tel Aviv cares for this. The democratic camp ran as of they’re the Democratic Party. Green new deal and other gimmicks. Problem is there aren’t that many people in Israel who really like the west wing, and they lost their left to the joint list

Yeah their campaigns were just bad, especially the Democratic Camp's. I won't say the Green New Deal plan is the bad part- it was a really decent plan that Israelis SHOULD care about if we want a normal country and not a huge traffic jam, but the rest... eh. Attacking Orly Levy was a very bad look that turned off a lot of people, and generally were never inspiring or interesting. Labour did run a good campaign for socialists, but it's just too small a segement and for the rest of the left there was really 0 reason for them to run alone.

I wasn’t talking about content but rather the image. We don’t go to the polls here on environmental issues. Attacking Levy was actually good, she’s hardly popular with Left voters who aren’t young woke unbearable Labour voting students

[America Needs R'hllor]

You can tell from their campaign that both Labour and the Democratic Camp are are doing badly in the polls. both are now warning against voting for Blue and White, since they might fail to make it and give Bibi a majority.

They’re doing badly because they campaigned badly. Labour ran for an absurd socialist platform and Sephardi “look”, problem is that bar for hipsters in Tel Aviv cares for this. The democratic camp ran as of they’re the Democratic Party. Green new deal and other gimmicks. Problem is there aren’t that many people in Israel who really like the west wing, and they lost their left to the joint list

Yeah their campaigns were just bad, especially the Democratic Camp's. I won't say the Green New Deal plan is the bad part- it was a really decent plan that Israelis SHOULD care about if we want a normal country and not a huge traffic jam, but the rest... eh. Attacking Orly Levy was a very bad look that turned off a lot of people, and generally were never inspiring or interesting. Labour did run a good campaign for socialists, but it's just too small a segement and for the rest of the left there was really 0 reason for them to run alone.

I wasn’t talking about content but rather the image. We don’t go to the polls here on environmental issues. Attacking Levy was actually good, she’s hardly popular with Left voters who aren’t young woke unbearable Labour voting students

Hm, the feeling I got from people about their campaigns against Levy and Gantz was that it just felt aggressive and stupid. I don't think it bought them any voters, and it probably lost a few.

[Oryxslayer]

You can tell from their campaign that both Labour and the Democratic Camp are are doing badly in the polls. both are now warning against voting for Blue and White, since they might fail to make it and give Bibi a majority.

Also Gevelt. Whenever you see this type of campaigning this close to the election, bet on Gevelt. The parties closer to the threshold can spread fear that they won't make it in, and the parties at t he top can spread fear that they won't come in first. The parties in the  middle can't really gevelt because they lack a clear goal, but it only really hurts Secular Rightists like Yamina presently, since the Arabs and Haredi will always vote along block lines. It's interesting how gevelt campaigning is so prominent in Israel but not elsewhere, it probably has to do with the small size and inter-connectivity of Israel. If your message of fear cannot spread fast enough, or the polls are far away like in a true rural region, it becomes a preemptive admission of defeat rather than fear-stoked encouragement, So instead we get false campaign positivism in America and other western countries.

But that said, Bibi's actions today go beyond normal Gevelt. The poll he tweeteed out at the end of last week releasing 'poor' turnout projections, and warnings of the potential non-bibi govt are like his normal Gevelt. That sh**t with the courts and election committee is legitimate fear.

[danny]

As expected, the anti gay Noam is dropping out. most of their (relatively few) voters will divide amongst Otzma and UTJ and maybe some Yamina.

[Oryxslayer]

Some reminders about Israel's electoral geography.

Interactive 2015 Election map by Locality.
Interactive 2019 April Election map by Locality.

Vote map by Region:

[Walmart_shopper]

Here is a short election compass tool from Channel 12:

https://electionsvote.mako.co.il

I had

79% Democratic Camp
76% Joint List (for whom I am taking my little k8ds to volunteer tomorrow morning)
67% Labor-Gesher

[Walmart_shopper]

Someone's getting desperate.

https://www.jpost.com/Israel-Elections/Netanyahu-calls-emergency-meeting-days-before-election-601645

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu requested an emergency meeting with the head of the Central Elections Committee, Supreme Court Judge, Hanan Melcer, ahead of Tuesday's election, following a report of widespread voter fraud in the Arab sector in the April election.  

“They will try to steal the election," Netanyahu said in an interview with KAN 11 on Saturday night.

The Likud said the findings of the investigation were grave and indicate that the election was “stolen” from Netanyahu, because without forged votes, the Balad-United Arab List faction might not have crossed the electoral threshold, Likud might have had two more seats and the second election could have been averted.

Bibi is probably too toast for this to work like "teh Arabs are going to vote!1!11!!" did in 2015, but it does show that he won't stop at anything. I really don't wanna see what tantrums he'll be throwing if/when he loses.

Haaretz found a pre-recorded message that the Likud plans to blast out at 1630 tomorrow. It will announce that leftist and Arab areas were seeing massive turnout. John McLaughlin (Likud's pollster) must be really, really good to be able to literally see into the future.

Seriously, though, you have to wonder at what point Bibi becomes the boy who cried wolf.

[DC Al Fine]

Took the quiz:

UTJ: 72%
Yamina: 70%
Likud: 69%

Which is weird because there were only 7 questions on the quiz and I approved of Sabbath public transport.

[Hnv1]

Here is a short election compass tool from Channel 12:

https://electionsvote.mako.co.il

I had

79% Democratic Camp
76% Joint List (for whom I am taking my little k8ds to volunteer tomorrow morning)
67% Labor-Gesher

Terrible compass. 7 questions is hardly enough. I got B&W 81%, DemCamp 77%, Joint List 75%.

Final Prediction:
Likud - 35
B&W - 34
Joint List - 10
UTJ - 8
Shas - 7
YB - 7
Rightwards - 6
Dem Camp- 5
Labour - 4
Otzma - 4

Right - 60
Rest - 60

[bigic]

How likely is that if Netanyahu needs just one or two more MPs, Gesher splits from Labour and joins the government?

[Walmart_shopper]

How likely is that if Netanyahu needs just one or two more MPs, Gesher splits from Labour and joins the government?

It isn't likely since Gesher IS Orly Levy and because he had 60 in April and nobody defected. Everyone knows Bibi is on his way out so nobody wants to risk their career for a guy like that. He really does need 61 to form a government and probably a good bit more than that to actually govern. I suspect he'll try to form a unity government led by him before he tries in vain to form a government with a majority of one (which is probably the best he can hope for).

[bigic]

My result of the 7 question test:
85% Blue and White
73% Democratic Camp
73% Labour-Gesher

[danny]

85% Likud
83% Beitenu
73% Yamina

I wish Likud actually did what I wanted 85% of the time...

[Horus]

99% DemCamp. No surprise there

[Oryxslayer]

How likely is that if Netanyahu needs just one or two more MPs, Gesher splits from Labour and joins the government?

It isn't likely since Gesher IS Orly Levy and because he had 60 in April and nobody defected. Everyone knows Bibi is on his way out so nobody wants to risk their career for a guy like that. He really does need 61 to form a government and probably a good bit more than that to actually govern. I suspect he'll try to form a unity government led by him before he tries in vain to form a government with a majority of one (which is probably the best he can hope for).

The things that unite the opposition right now are getting rid of Bibi and not passing his immunity law. If Bibi were to vanish in the next five minutes, B&W would have a hard time stopping the defections back to likud. But, Bibi is there, and even if he loses his Right-Religious majority, he will still decide the fate of Israeli politics, this time through his death throes and the successor/civil war question.

[Former President tack50]

My test results

69% Democratic Camp
62% Labour
42% Blue and White

Honestly considering the low percentages (third party is below 50%!) I imagine there aren't many Israelis with my views. Then again I did answer "don't know" for 2/7 questions so

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Joint List: 82%
Labour: 82%
Democratic Union: 78%