Hartlepool by-election... in October or November

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The Prince of Darkness (aka: Peter Mandelson) is to become an E.U Commisioner.
He'll resign his seat (Monkeyland Hartlepool) in the Autumn (local sources say the by-election will be in November).

[minionofmidas]

Should be safe for Labour.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Should be safe for Labour.

True... but this is a town that voted in a man in a monkey suit to be it's mayor (H'Angus the Monkey. Used to be Hartlepool's football mascot. Don't ask why he's called that...)
On the other hand Labour regained control of Monkeyland UA's Council Chamber in June.

There's a rumour that H'Angus might run for M.P

[minionofmidas]

Should be safe for Labour.

True... but this is a town that voted in a man in a monkey suit to be it's mayor (H'Angus the Monkey. Used to be Hartlepool's football mascot. Don't ask why he's called that...)
On the other hand Labour regained control of Monkeyland UA's Council Chamber in June.

There's a rumour that H'Angus might run for M.P

Start fearing him if he joins or is endorsed by the LD's.
And sorry, but I do have to ask. Why is he called Hangus the Monkey?

[Ben.]

Labour will hold it, I'd be very suprised if they lost it... VERY VERY SURPRISED.... as one Labour Polster said "Hartlepool?, not many asians in Hartlepool"  

[minionofmidas]

Labour will hold it, I'd be very suprised if they lost it... VERY VERY SURPRISED.... as one Labour Polster said "Hartlepool?, not many asians in Hartlepool"  

So why is he called Hangus the Monkey?

[Ben.]

Labour will hold it, I'd be very suprised if they lost it... VERY VERY SURPRISED.... as one Labour Polster said "Hartlepool?, not many asians in Hartlepool"  

So why is he called Hangus the Monkey?

[shruggs sholders]

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Labour will hold it, I'd be very suprised if they lost it... VERY VERY SURPRISED.... as one Labour Polster said "Hartlepool?, not many asians in Hartlepool"  

So why is he called Hangus the Monkey?

In the Napoleonic Wars a French ship sunk near Hartlepool. The only surviving member of the crew was the ships mascot (a monkey).
The people of Hartlepool had never seen either a Frenchman or a monkey before, and assumed that the monkey was a member of the crew... so they hung him.
People in County Durham proper have been taking the piss out of people from Hartlepool ever since

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It's possible that Robert Kilroy-Silk might stand for the UKIP in the by-election despite having no links with the constituancy at all.
That a man who used to be M.P for Ormskirk (in Lancs) and is currently an MEP for the East Midlands (where he presumably is registered to vote... he lives in Spain most of the time) can even be allowed to run makes a mockery of democracy... we need a locality rule NOW! No more chicken-running!

Oh and guess what else... the LibDems have been printing leaflets (one of their near-libel writ inducing piles of putrid propaganda disguised as a local "newspaper") before Mandelson was appointed!!!!!!!!!!!!!
That is cheating and should be illegal (hell a by-election won't be called for months yet) and Lord Rennard should be forced onto a diet.

[Ben.]

It's possible that Robert Kilroy-Silk might stand for the UKIP in the by-election despite having no links with the constituancy at all.
That a man who used to be M.P for Ormskirk (in Lancs) and is currently an MEP for the East Midlands (where he presumably is registered to vote... he lives in Spain most of the time) can even be allowed to run makes a mockery of democracy... we need a locality rule NOW! No more chicken-running!

Oh and guess what else... the LibDems have been printing leaflets (one of their near-libel writ inducing piles of putrid propaganda disguised as a local "newspaper") before Mandelson was appointed!!!!!!!!!!!!!
That is cheating and should be illegal (hell a by-election won't be called for months yet) and Lord Rennard should be forced onto a diet.

I heard about this... interestingly in the European Elections Labour won the area by a wide margin while they where soundly beaten nationally and who came second in this area? ... yep UKIP, it will be interesting if Labour retains a similar margin of victory and Ukip effectively beats both the Conservatives and Liberals in the end I would see the Liberals being worst hit by Kilroy as the "protest candidate" and in a place like Hartlepool LibDem support will be pretty shallow IMHO.... taking into account the European results in the area even if Kilroy runs I still don't think Labour will lose I mean how many people who would vote Labour will vote for Kilroy??? I can see the Liberals and Tories doing very badly if he runs but I think that the Labour vote will hold up as in the end UKIP takes far more from the right than the left however strangely this will still hurt the liberals as their strategy will be to just appear in what ever guise they think will "play" best with the voters of that area...


I repeat…


1.) No large ethnic population of any kind.

2.) A Labour Party that has regained control at a local leve.

3.) A very robust performance in the European and local elections for the Labour Party in the area



...my conclusion? Nothing that Labour should be too worried about IMHO, but don’t take it for granted that said I can’t imagine there will even be a dramatic reduction in the Labour Majority.    

[Filuwaúrdjan]

"Natural" support in Monkeyland is something like: Lab 50%, Con 35%, LD 15%.
But I doubt we'll see that in a by-election...

My guess: Lab 35-40%, UKIP 20-30%

[Ben.]

"Natural" support in Monkeyland is something like: Lab 50%, Con 35%, LD 15%.
But I doubt we'll see that in a by-election...

My guess: Lab 35-40%, UKIP 20-30%

I concur ... by November I would imagine Blair and the Government will be stronger anyway, that said if the election where held now I'd still say Labour would win.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

FOR THE RECORD

General Election Result (2001)

Lab 59%
Con 20%
LD   15%
SLP*  2%

*Scargill

Euro Results (according to PA)

Lab  32%
UKIP 19%
Con   17%
LD     13%
BNP     6%

Local Results (% of vote. According to the LibDems...)

Lab  31%
LD    23%
Con  12%

NOTE: TAKE THE LOCAL % WITH A LARGE SALTMINE. LOCAL ELECTIONS ARE NOT LIKE NATIONAL ELECTIONS, ESPECIALLY IN MONKEYLAND.
I DON'T KNOW HOW MANY WARDS WERE UP FOR ELECTION OR THE % OF INDEPENDENTS OR HOW MANY WARDS EACH PARTY STOOD IN.
THESE FIGURES COME FROM THE OVER-LARGE MOUTH OF LORD RENNARD AND ARE PROBABLY PROPAGANDA

[JohnFKennedy]

Labour will hold it, I'd be very suprised if they lost it... VERY VERY SURPRISED.... as one Labour Polster said "Hartlepool?, not many asians in Hartlepool"  

So why is he called Hangus the Monkey?

In the Napoleonic Wars a French ship sunk near Hartlepool. The only surviving member of the crew was the ships mascot (a monkey).
The people of Hartlepool had never seen either a Frenchman or a monkey before, and assumed that the monkey was a member of the crew... so they hung him.
People in County Durham proper have been taking the piss out of people from Hartlepool ever since

I love that story. .

Ah Peter Mandelson will be leaving Parliament, that is good news, unfortunately, he is going to a more important job with a better salary .

Labour hold I say, strong UKIP showing.

[minionofmidas]

I wouldn't be too certain that the UKIP can repeat its showing at non-European elections...although their chances should be better at a by-election than a general election...certainly, if UKIP, LDs and the monkey stand against each other and run well (and maybe Respect too?), the protest vote would be so well and truly split that Labour can run away with it.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I wouldn't be too certain that the UKIP can repeat its showing at non-European elections...although their chances should be better at a by-election than a general election...certainly, if UKIP, LDs and the monkey stand against each other and run well (and maybe Respect too?), the protest vote would be so well and truly split that Labour can run away with it.

I'd be suprised if Respect did well in Monkeyland... hardly any Muslims or Yuppies.
The NSDAP BNP might do well though

[Filuwaúrdjan]

From British Spin (www.britishspin.blogspot.com)

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Go Robocop!

[Ben.]

From British Spin (www.britishspin.blogspot.com)

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Go Robocop!

If he gets nominated we'll be fine

Supposing “Robo” and Kilroy run, this is my predication…

44% - Labour (“Robocop”)
30% - UKIP (Kilroy)
11% - LibDems
10% - Conservative
4.1% - Others  

If David Bowe receives the Labour nomination (only if the NEC where stupid and only if there where suddenly no viable candidate avalible – ie. It won’t happen) and Killroy still runs…

38% - UKIP (Kilroy)  
36% - Labour (Bowe)
12% - LibDem
9% - Conservative
4.1% - Other

And if Pat Dimond (Mandelson’s preferred successor and Blair’s adviser on education) where to run…

41% - Labour (Dimond)     
33% - UKIP (Kilroy)
11% - LibDem
10% - Conservative
4.1% - Other

…if Dimond runs and Killroy does not…

42% - Labour (Dimond)
19% - Gus Robinson (Independent, my bet is he runs if Kilroy doesn’t)    
17% - LibDems
15% - Conservative

and finally if “Robo” runs and Kirloy does not (very possible if Silk thinks he would lose )…

60% - Labour (“Robocop”)
27% - LibDem
8% - Conservative
4.1% - Others


...and who ever is the candidate ( and for the love of God not Bowe!) Tom Watson should be put in charge of this one ... Al's right the Kid is gifted from what everyone said about him in Brum he was really on form


By the way Al, you may like this site ... http://www.libdemwatch.co.uk/

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Good ole LibDem Watch

I'd like Robo to run... if not (a 50-50 chance of him running from what I hear) some other "big hitter" would be nice...
It looks as though Robinson will be running no matter what Kilroy does, if so the Hartlepool By-election could be as devastating to Howard (and maybe even Kennedy) as Brent East was to IDS.

[minionofmidas]

So has that monkey made any noises about running?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

So has that monkey made any noises about running?

I've not heard anything... yet. The by-election is a while away yet, and I'd suspect he'd only jump in if there are no "star" candidates running (ie: Robocop or Kilroy-Silk)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Robo isn't running: http://icteesside.icnetwork.co.uk/0100news/0001head/tm_objectid=14469887&method=full&siteid=50080&headline=mallon--i-don-t-want-mandelson-s-seat-name_page.html*

But my guess is that if Labour lose Monkeyland, Robo will stand in the General election (he'd win)

*Or could he be pulling a Schwartenegger Schwartsczenger Arnie?

Found the apparent news on a new blog: http://guacamoleville.blogspot.com/

Possible Labour candidates:

Cllr Robbie Payne
Cllr Ian Wright
Cllr Pamela Hargreaves
Moss Boddy (Fmr. Lab. Group leader)
Pat[rick] Diamond (see Ben's post)
Joe Docherty (head of the Tees Valley Regeneration thingy)
David Bowe (ex-Cllr (for Boro not Monkeyland), ex-MEP Hard leftist)

Oh H'Angus has ruled himself out

[Ben.]

Robo isn't running: http://icteesside.icnetwork.co.uk/0100news/0001head/tm_objectid=14469887&method=full&siteid=50080&headline=mallon--i-don-t-want-mandelson-s-seat-name_page.html*

But my guess is that if Labour lose Monkeyland, Robo will stand in the General election (he'd win)

*Or could he be pulling a Schwartenegger Schwartsczenger Arnie?

Found the apparent news on a new blog: http://guacamoleville.blogspot.com/

Possible Labour candidates:

Cllr Robbie Payne
Cllr Ian Wright
Cllr Pamela Hargreaves
Moss Boddy (Fmr. Lab. Group leader)
Pat[rick] Diamond (see Ben's post)
Joe Docherty (head of the Tees Valley Regeneration thingy)
David Bowe (ex-Cllr (for Boro not Monkeyland), ex-MEP Hard leftist)

Oh H'Angus has ruled himself out

Bugger ... Dimond or Hargreaves then, I'm going to go out on a limb and say that Hargreaves would be the better candidate for the by-election IMHO...

 ...really bad photo but party image makers can change all that

 ...only photo i could find of Dimond but i still say that Hargreaves would be the better candidate.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Diamond has ruled himself out.
Some very good news though: Tom Watson is up in Hartlepool at the moment

[Ben.]

Diamond has ruled himself out.
Some very good news though: Tom Watson is up in Hartlepool at the moment

Very good stuff... did you see Routeledge's carp in the NS the other day? that guy just gets worse and worse... Hargreaves would now seem the best candidate to me.