Playing President Infinity, 2016 scenario as Gillibrand. Clinton and Biden were both off for the scenario. Warren was set to "Unsure" and jumped in early. Sanders, Schweitzer, Webb, Warner and O'Malley were also all on.
On the GOP side, Christie, Cruz, Bush, Paul, Rubio, Carson, Palin, Huntsman, King and Santorum were all on.
Bloomberg is on as an independent, and so are the Libertarian and Green nominees.
First Update: December 15th 2015 - I lead, as Gillibrand, in the first 4 primary states. My focus is entirely on these states. On the GOP side, Palin leads in Iowa. Perry leads in NH closely followed by Palin. Santorum leads in SC, and Palin leads in NV. Fundraising has proven difficult.
Iowa Result: I take Iowa with 43% of the vote to Warner's 24%, Webb's 16%. Palin takes Iowa on the GOP side with Rubio 2 points behind her.
New Hampshire: Palin takes New Hampshire, with Rick Perry right behind her. I take New Hampshire with 49.9% of the vote to Warner's 19.6% followed by Webb at about 12%.
Nevada (Dem): I take Nevada with 34% of the vote to Webb's 23% and Schweitzer's 20%. Schweitzer withdraws after.
South Carolina (GOP): Santorum takes SC, with Palin coming in 4th.
South Carolina (Dem): I take South Carolina with 50% to Warren's 25% -- this is the highest Warren has recieved in the first 4 primaries.
Florida (GOP): Rubio wins overwhelmingly.
Nevada (GOP): Christie takes Nevada with 14.7% to Palin's 14.4% to Carson's 14.0%. This is the best Christie has done so far.
February 2015: I pushed Webb out of the race. King on the GOP side leaves the race. A few different Republicans win a few random primaries. I lead nationally at 30% to Warren's 25%. Oddly enough, Huntsman endorsed Cruz...
Arizona: Warner had been up here for a while and took it, I didn't contest it.
Pre Super Tuesday Delegates --> Post Super Tuesday Delegates
Delegates...
Gillibrand: 135 --> 585
Warren: 27 --> 644
Sanders: 5 --> 63
O'Malley: 6 --> 153
Warner: 113 --> 255
I disagree that Warren would even be viable after losing the first 4 primaries but w/e...Warren comes out ahead on Super Tuesday, but I won Massachusetts.
Cruz: 30 --> 286
Palin: 9 --> 34
Bush: 2 --> 8
Rubio: 155 --> 234
Christie: 31 --> 85
Paul: 44 --> 50
Perry: 4 --> 8
Carson: 41 --> 44
Santorum:29 --> 33
Post Super Tuesday/March: Christie drops out and endorses Cruz. I take Hawaii. Warner drops out and endorses Warren. Warren takes Maine. Warren leads 961 to 725 in delegates. The in game estimator has me up 777 in the end but lets see. Bush, Palin and Carson drop out mid-March.
We take Illinois & Louisana but I decide to shore up support in NY, PA and CA.
April: O'Malley drops out the day before the MD/WI/DC primaries. I was ahead in WI but was okay with losing MD to O'Malley. DC was a tossup. I end up taking MD and WI. Santorum and Perry drop out. I take a whole bunch of midwestern states bringing my delegate total to 1319 to Warren's 1,302. Sanders is at 144.
NY/PA/CT/DE - I go completely negative running ads against Warren. I don't contest DE, we're already down 30 points. We go onto win all 4 states! We're now ahead by 500 delegates.
May: We're less than 100 delegates from securing the nomination. Sanders and Warren are both still in the race, but it's pretty much over....and now Sanders is out.
May 18th - I have secured the nomination. Rubio and Cruz are basically neck and neck fighting it out on their end still. Cruz has a slight edge in numbers but Rubio is the one going in stronger to the final primaries including California.
May 24th - I pick Tim Kaine as my VP. It's clear that we need Virginia to win the Presidency.
May 30th - The game is saying Cruz locked up the nomination...but he's still under the 1144 mark (he's at 977). He won Texas 85-15. Gary Johnson wins the Libertarian nod.
June 2016 - I beat Warren in overall delegates 70-30. Cruz beat Rubio 64 - 24% Cruz's delegate count is down.
June 15 2016 StatusGillibrand/Kaine (D) - 201 EV, 40.5% PV
Cruz/TBD (R) - 333 EV, 45.9% PV
Bloomberg/TBD (I) - 0 EV, 5.6% PV
Stein/TBD (G) - 0 EV, 1.7% PV
Johnson/TBD (L) 0 EV, 1.1% PV
Much work to do.
August 2016 - NJ just flipped to Bloomberg (34-12-11). Ugh. This is going to be tough unless Cruz implodes. Gillibrand receiving only 5 stamina per turn hurts. Bloomberg is expanding the map by targeting D states. This is not good.Cruz picked Jodi Ernst for VP.
September 2016 Status
Gillibrand/Kaine (D) - 201 EV, 36.5% PV - $50 million cash on hand
Cruz/Ernst (R) - 299 EV, 38.8% PV - $83 million cash on hand
Bloomberg/Hagel(I) - 14 EV, 7.2% PV - $26 million cash on hand
Stein/Honkala (G) - 0 EV, 1.6% PV - $-12,983 cash on hand
Johnson/Ventura (L) 0 EV, 1.1% PV $-16,649 cash on hand
We've flipped two states to D, and one R state (but traditionally D) has flipped to I.
Cruz must have accepted federal funds. I didn't. Excellent (I now have $127 mil COH)
October Status Update
Gillibrand/Kaine (D) - 187 EV, 37.5% PV - $100 million cash on hand
Cruz/Ernst (R) - 315 EV, 40.2% PV - $76 million cash on hand
Bloomberg/Hagel(I) - 17 EV, 7.2% PV - $1.9 million cash on hand
Stein/Honkala (G) - 0 EV, 1.6% PV - $-1,716 cash on hand
Johnson/Ventura (L) 0 EV, 1.1% PV $-102,291 cash on hand
This is not trending well, but Cruz has limited funds and Bloomberg is out of money.
November Status Update
Gillibrand/Kaine (D) - 200 EV, 41.8% PV - $66 million cash on hand
Cruz/Ernst (R) - 317 EV, 38.8% PV - $76 million cash on hand
Bloomberg/Hagel(I) - 17 EV, 9.1% PV - $210,744 million cash on hand
Stein/Honkala (G) - 0 EV, 1.8% PV - $-14,310 cash on hand
Johnson/Ventura (L) 0 EV, 1.3% PV $-4,950 cash on hand
I think we're going to lose but I believe the final result will be closer.
Final ResultsGillibrand/Kaine (D) - 230 EV, 42.9% PV, 64,505,020 votes
Cruz/Ernst (R) - 291 EV, 43% PV, 64,555,800 votes
Bloomberg/Hagel(I) - 17 EV, 10.6% PV, 15,942,518 votes
Stein/Honkala (G) - 0 EV, 1.8% PV - 2,691,369 votes
Johnson/Ventura (L) 0 EV, 1.7% PV, 2,501,390 votes
So, Cruz received 50,780 votes more nationally than me, which is really closing the gap.
Closest States (in no particular order);
Iowa: Cruz up .4% (yes point 4)
Washington: Cruz up 4%
Nevada: Gillibrand up 3%
New Mexico: Cruz up 4%
Wisconsin: Cruz up 4%
Pennsylvania: Gillibrand up 3%
North Carolina: Gillibrand up 5%
Delaware: Bloomberg up 5% over Gillibrand
New Hampshire: Gillibrand up 2%
Maine: Gillibrnad up 2%