Washington Post Poll.

Less than five weeks before the election, 52 percent of those most likely to vote support O'Malley, and 41 percent back Ehrlich. In May, likely voters were divided evenly between the contenders.

Ehrlich has the support of almost every GOP voter in the state, and he is winning independents by a wide margin in his effort to reclaim the Maryland governorship he lost four years ago. But that combined slice of the electorate, which is propelling outsider insurgents elsewhere, appears to be too little in Maryland. The former governor and congressman is failing to draw the cross-party appeal that vaulted him to victory in 2002.