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Source: Survey USA (url)

CandidatePolitical PartyPollGraphPoll Details
DMark Dayton*Democratic46%piePoll Date: 2014-06-09
RJeff JohnsonRepublican40%Number Polled: 1,017
-Other-7%Margin of Error: 3%
-Undecided-6%Voter Type: Likely

  * = Incumbent

Gov. Dayton (D) up by at least 6

 By: Mark Warner 08 (I-AUT) on 2014-06-15 @ 03:33:13

Question:

In MN, GOP Gov Primary is White Hot 2 Months Out; Winner Ready to Tear Into Incumbent Democrat Dayton; Franken Can't Coast Either:

2 months till votes are counted in the Republican Primary for Minnesota Governor, 4 candidates battle for the nomination, with the top 2 tied, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KSTP-TV. Today, Kurt Zellers and Jeff Johnson are even at 23%. They are followed by Marty Seifert at 14% and Scott Honour at 9%.

Regardless of which 1 of the 4 gets the nomination, DFL incumbent Mark Dayton may have a fight on his hands. The same is true of Al Franken in the US Senate contest ... but let's focus on the Governor's race first.

In the Gubernatorial primary, Zellers narrowly outdraws Johnson among Republicans. Johnson narrowly outdraws Zellers among Independents. Conservatives break ever-so-slightly for Zellers; moderates break ever-so-slightly for Johnson. Johnson runs strong in Southern MN, Zellers runs strong in NE MN. The 2 split in the Twin Cities. Zellers' support is younger. Johnson's support is older. Johnson uniquely appeals to middle-income voters.

In hypothetical November match-ups that wheel the 4 Republicans against Dayton, Dayton leads in every case. But never with more than 47% of the vote. Today it's:

* Dayton 46%, Johnson 40%. Dayton by 6.
* Dayton 46%, Zellers 39%. Dayton by 7.
* Dayton 46%, Seifert 38%. Dayton by 8.
* Dayton 47%, Honour 37%. Dayton by 10.

About this Poll

Cell-phone respondents and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 2,200 state of Minnesota adults 06/05/14 through 06/09/14. Of the adults, 2,032 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 1,017 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/04/14 general election, 404 were determined to be likely to vote in the 08/12/14 primary election. Of the adults, 1,177 live in Greater Minneapolis and were asked how often they will ride light rail. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.

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