Raleigh, N.C. – Barack Obama has expanded his lead nine points over the last three
weeks in Michigan, according to the newest survey from Public Policy Polling. He now
leads John McCain 51-41 in the state after holding just a 47-46 advantage immediately
after the Republican convention.
Michigan’s been hit even harder than most places in the country by economic struggles
over the last few years, and 69% of the state’s voters list the economy as their top issue.
That’s higher than any other battleground state PPP has polled in. Obama holds a 54-37
lead among respondents who listed it as their biggest concern.
Another factor helping to drive Obama’s improved standing in the state is Sarah Palin’s
rapidly declining popularity. Immediately after the GOP convention 45% of Michigan
voters said her selection made them more likely to vote for John McCain, compared to
just 35% who said it made them less likely to do so. Since then there’s been a 14 point
drop in her net favorability, with 43% now saying her selection makes them less likely to
vote Republican and only 39% saying it makes them more likely to do so.
“There have been two universal trends in all of PPP’s battleground polling the last two
weeks,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Concern over the
economy is at an all time high, and voters trust Barack Obama more to turn it around.
Sarah Palin’s luster wore off pretty quickly. Those things are fueling gains of 6-9 points
for the Democratic nominee, and unless the game changes soon that trend is going to take
Michigan off the list of swing states and put it firmly into the Obama column.”
The survey also found Carl Levin looking safe for reelection, with a 50-32 advantage
over challenger Jack Hoogendyk. Levin’s holding the Republican under 70% even with
members of his own party.
PPP surveyed 731 likely voters from September 29th to October 1st. The survey’s margin
of error is +/-3.6%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may
introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.