Raleigh, N.C. – Barack Obama has opened up a large lead in New Mexico, according to
the newest survey from Public Policy Polling.
Obama is at 53% in the state, compared to 42% for John McCain. Key to Obama’s
performance is that he is only running behind 49-47 to McCain among white voters. In a
state with a significant Hispanic population that level of competitiveness with whites will
seal a win. He leads 59-35 with Hispanics.
The state’s US Senate race is looking even less competitive. Tom Udall leads Steve
Pearce 57-37.
“New Mexico is probably the state Bush took in 2004 that Barack Obama will have the
easiest time winning this time around,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy
Polling. “Part of this large lead may be a product of last week’s economic crisis but even
if things return to normal this is a place where the Democrats are going to have a
significant advantage.”
Sarah Palin is not very popular with New Mexico voters. While 38% said her selection
made them more likely to vote for John McCain, 46% said it made them less likely to do
so. Among independents 47% said her place on the ticket made them less likely to vote
Republican. Overall Barack Obama has a 16 point advantage with that demographic. Joe
Biden is a slight net favorite for the Democrats, with 35% saying his choice makes them
more likely to vote for Obama compared to 32% who say it makes them less likely to do
so.
PPP surveyed 1,037 likely voters from September 17th to 19th. The survey’s margin of
error is +/-3.0%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may
introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Complete results are attached and can be found at www.publicpolicypolling.com. PPP
will have a new Colorado poll tomorrow.