Question:
If the 2008 Republican presidential caucus were being held today between (names rotated) Rudy Giuliani, Mike Huckabee, Duncan Hunter, Alan Keyes, John McCain, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, Tom Tancredo, and Fred Thompson, for whom would you vote?

Would you say that you definitely plan to participate in the 2008 Republican presidential caucus, that you might participate in the 2008 Republican presidential caucus, or that you will probably not participate in the 2008 Republican presidential caucus?


Poll Demographics
Iowa
Likely Republican Caucus Goers Nov 10-14

Giuliani 11%
Huckabee 24%
Hunter 1%
Keyes -
McCain 10%
Paul 3%
Romney 26%
Tancredo 1%
Thompson 11%
Undecided 13%

47% of likely caucus participants are undecided (13%) or say they could switch candidates between now and January 3 (34%).
71% of those saying they support Romney say their support is definite.
67% of those saying they support McCain say their support is definite.
65% of those saying they support Thompson say their support is definite.
58% of those saying they support Huckabee say their support is definite.
33% of those saying they support Giuliani say their support is definite.
Among men, Romney is at 31%, Huckabee is at 25%, McCain is at 10%, and Thompson is at 9%.
Among women, Huckabee is at 22%, Romney is at 21%, Giuliani is at 15%, Thompson is at 14%, and McCain is at 11%.


Iowa
Likely Republican Caucus Goers Dec 06 Jan 07 Feb 07 Mar 07 Apr 07 May 07 Jun 07 Jul 07 Aug 07 Sep 07 Oct 07

Brownback 1% 1% 2% - 1% 3% 3% 1% - 2% ni
Gilmore - - - - 1% 1% - ni ni ni ni
Gingrich 18% 16% 16% 7% 8% 8% 5% 4% 7% 5% ni
Giuliani 28% 27% 31% 29% 19% 23% 18% 22% 17% 21% 16%
Hagel 6% 5% 2% 1% 1% 2% 1% ni ni ni ni
Huckabee 1% 2% 1% - 2% 2% 1% 1% 14% 4% 19%
Hunter - - - - - - 1% 2% 1% 2% -
Keyes ni ni ni ni ni ni ni ni ni 1% -
McCain 26% 22% 23% 29% 26% 25% 13% 17% 5% 11% 14%
Pataki - - - - - - - ni ni ni ni
Paul ni - - - - - 1% 1% 1% 2% 1%
Romney 6% 11% 8% 10% 14% 16% 25% 21% 27% 22% 27%
Tancredo ni 1% 1% 1% 2% 2% 1% 1% - 1% 2%
F Thompson ni ni ni 12% 13% 6% 14% 13% 13% 16% 8%
T Thompson - - - 1% 1% 2% 3% 2% ni ni ni
Undecided 14% 15% 17% 11% 13% 10% 14% 15% 15% 13% 13%



Preference by party:



Iowa
Likely Republican Caucus Goers Republicans (84%) Independents (16%)

Giuliani 11% 9%
Huckabee 24% 27%
Hunter 1% -
Keyes - -
McCain 10% 8%
Paul 3% 1%
Romney 23% 39%
Tancredo 1% -
Thompson 13% 3%
Undecided 14% 13%


About this Poll
Sample Size: 600 completed telephone interviews among a random sample of likely Republican caucus goers living in Iowa (505 Republicans and 95 no party (independent) voters).

Sample Dates: November 10-14, 2007

Margin of Error: ± 4 percentage points, 95% of the time, on questions where opinion is evenly split.

Incidence of Likely Republican Caucus Participation: 8.3% of Republican and no party voters.