PredictionsMock2016 Presidential Election Polls - CA ResultsPolls
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Source: Survey USA (url)

CandidatePolitical PartyPollGraphPoll Details
DClintonDemocratic57%piePoll Date: 2016-09-11
RTrumpRepublican32%Number Polled: 678
IMcMullinIndependent0%Margin of Error: 4%
-Other-4%Voter Type: Likely

Clinton Way Ahead in California

 By: leip (I-NY) on 2016-09-13 @ 20:53:16

If the election for President of the United States were today, and you were filling out your ballot right now, who would you vote for? (names rotated) Republican Donald Trump? Democrat Hillary Clinton? Libertarian Gary Johnson or Green Party candidate Jill Stein?
Trump 32%
Clinton 57%
Johnson 3%
Stein 1%
Undecided 7%

About this Poll
SurveyUSA interviewed 900 state of California adults 09/08/16 through 09/11/16. Of the adults, 782 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 678 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/08/16 general election. Of registered voters, 4% tell SurveyUSA they almost always vote in a Presidential election but will not vote in 2016 because they do not like any of the candidates. An offsetting 6% of voters tell SurveyUSA they almost never vote in Presidential elections but will vote in 2016 because they are particularly drawn to one of the candidates. 87% of the interviews for this survey were completed before Clinton buckled at Ground Zero the morning of 09/11/16 and before doctors offered pneumonia as an explanation. The survey was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on their home telephones (53% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephones in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (47% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on the screen of their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. Polling ballot measures and citizen initiatives is an inexact science. In general, having nothing to do with California specifically and having nothing to do with 2016 uniquely, opposition to a ballot measure increases as Election Day approaches. Rarely does support for a ballot measure increase over time. It is likely that opposition to Propositions 56, 62, 63 and 64 will increase once early voting begins in one month, on 10/10/16. This may alter the calculus on recreational marijuana Proposition 64, which today has the most fragile advantage of those measures tested.

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