PredictionsEndorse2008 Senatorial Election Polls - GA ResultsPolls
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Source: Survey USA (url)

CandidatePolitical PartyPollGraphPoll Details
RChambliss*Republican48%piePoll Date: 2008-11-02
DMartinDemocratic44%Number Polled: 683
LBuckleyLibertarian5%Margin of Error: 4%
-Undecided-3%Voter Type: Likely

  * = Incumbent

Chambliss +4

 By: Miamiu1027 (D-NY) - 2008-11-03 @ 12:52:56

The final 13WMAZ/SurveyUSA poll of likely Georgia voters shows John McCain with a seven-point lead in the race for Georgia's 15 electoral votes.

In the U.S. Senate race, incumbent Republican Saxby Chambliss has a 4-point lead, but less than the majority needed to avert a runoff with Democrat Jim Martin, according to the poll.

Chambliss leads in the poll, 48 percent to 44 percent. Libertarian Allen Buckley won support of 5 percent of those polled. Three percent said they were undecided.

The poll's margin of error is 3.8 percentage points.

Under Georgia law, the winner needs a majority -- 50 percent plus one vote -- to be declared the winner.

A runoff election, if needed, would be held in four weeks on Dec. 2.

The poll of 683 likely voters -- or people who have already voted -- was taken Thursday through Sunday.

In the race for Georgia's 15 electoral votes, John McCain led Democrat Barack Obama, 52 percent to 45 percent, with 2 percent choosing "other" and 2 percent undecided.

The only other Presidential candidate on the ballot in Georgia is Libertarian Bob Barr, a former Georgia congressman and U.S. Attorney.

To see the full results, click on the link at the upper right.

SurveyUSA said its polling assumes a turnout among black voters of 26 percent. But its analysis said publicly available data showed that of those who have already voted in Georgia, 35 percent are black. If the poll results are adjusted for a final black turnout of 30 percent instead of 26 percent, then McCain would lead Obama by just one point, 49 percent to 48 percent -- a statistical tie because the result falls within the margin of error of 3.9 points.

The results in the Senate poll, if adjusted for a 30 percent black turnout instead of 26 percent, would have Martin leading Chambliss 47 percent to 46 percent, again a virtual tie because of the margin of error, with Buckley still at 5 points and 3 percent undecided. This result would also lead to a runoff in the Senate race.

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