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Source: Ivan Moore Research (url)

CandidatePolitical PartyPollGraphPoll Details
DMark Begich*Democratic48%piePoll Date: 2014-10-26
RDan SullivanRepublican42%Number Polled: 544
-Other-6%Margin of Error: 4%
-Undecided-4%Voter Type: Likely

  * = Incumbent


 By: Mark Warner 08 (I-AUT) on 2014-10-28 @ 11:29:31


About this Poll

Poll results!!!

600 sample of registered voters, fielded Friday 24th - Sunday 26th. MOE +/- 4%.

There are two likely voter subgroups for this survey, one fairly loose (544 sample), and one tighter (330 sample). I'm giving results for both screens for transparency. Suffice to say, the 544 sample suggests a 90% turnout, which is highly unlikely, even this year... while the 330 suggests a 55% turnout, which is historically very close to reality. Also the age distribution of the 330 sample is exactly what you would see if you combined Alaska census data for age with average turnouts by age group. In other words, the 544 gives us good sample size in our view of the electorate, the 330 is the closer modeling of turnout on election day:


544 sample: Begich (D) 48.3% Sullivan (R) 41.6% Other 6.5% Undecided 3.6%
330 sample: Begich (D) 50.1% Sullivan (R) 42.2% Other 5.3% Undecided 2.4%


544 sample: Dunbar (D) 42.6% Young (R) 44.4% McDermott (L) 9.5% Undecided 3.5%
330 sample: Dunbar (D) 46.1% Young (R) 40.6% McDermott (L) 9.6% Undecided 3.7%

Not much of a difference in the Senate race between the two screens... Begich has a 6.7% lead in one, 7.9% in the other. The Congress race is interesting... Young up by 1.8% when you look at the wider population, but zero in on the people who are the highest probability to turn out and Dunbar has a lead of 5.5%. That's what happens when you really tick people off two weeks before an election.

You heard it here first.

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