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Source: High Point University (url)

CandidatePolitical PartyPollGraphPoll Details
DKay Hagan*Democratic42%piePoll Date: 2014-09-18
RThom TillisRepublican40%Number Polled: 410
LSean HaughLibertarian6%Margin of Error: 5%
-Undecided-12%Voter Type: Likely

  * = Incumbent

Close Race for North Carolina Senate

 By: leip (I-NY) on 2014-09-23 @ 03:54:09

If the election for United States Senate were held today would you be voting for Republican Thom Tillis, Democrat Kay Hagan, or Libertarian Sean Haugh?

Thom Tillis – 40 percent
Kay Hagan – 42 percent
Sean Haugh – 6 percent
Don’t know/refuse – 12 percent

About this Poll
The High Point University Survey Research Center fielded this survey with live interviewers calling between September 13 and 18, 2014. The responses came from 410 likely voters with landline or cellular telephones. First, registered voters were identified using a Registration Based Sampling system that selected possible respondents from a statewide, North Carolina list of registered voters that had landline and cell phone numbers appended by a contractor. Likely voters were estimated by asking a screening question: “On November 4, North Carolina will hold their general election for U.S. Senate, U.S. House of Representatives and other offices. How certain are you that you will vote in this election? Are you almost certain to vote, you probably will vote, your chances of voting are 50/50, or you will not vote in the November 2014 general election?” The only registered voters who passed the screen were those who responded “almost certain” or “probably” to the screening question AND voted in the 2010 general election in North Carolina, registered in North Carolina after 2010 and voted in the 2012 general election, or registered in North Carolina since 2012 passed the screen. The Survey Research Center contracted with Survey Sampling International to acquire this sample. The survey has an estimated margin of sampling error of approximately 5 percentage points for this population of respondents. The data are weighted toward estimated turn out figures for age, gender and race based on North Carolina Board of Elections data and exit polls from past campaigns. In addition to sampling error, factors such as question wording and other methodological choices in conducting survey research can introduce additional error into the findings of opinion polls.

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