PredictionsEndorse2006 Gubernatorial Predictions - Inks.LWC (R-MI) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2006-10-29 Version:13

Prediction Map
Inks.LWC MapPrediction Key

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map
Inks.LWC MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
25 |
36 |
50 |
Dem19
 
pie
Rep17
 
Ind0
 
Non14
 

Confidence States Won
25 |
36 |
50 |
Dem19
 
pie
Rep15
 
Ind0
 
Tos2
 
Non14
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem+1+5+6-10-112113+5
Rep+10+1-1-5-612416-5
Ind0000000000


Comments

State Previous Current
AK R50S R40S
CO D50S D60S
ID R60S R40L
IL D50S D40S
IA D40T D40L
ME D40L D40S
MN D40T R40T
OH D50S D60S
OR D40L D50S
PA D50S D60S
SC R50S R60S
I switched MN to Republican due to the fact that it is so close and that Republicans normally win during bad weather—and it is supposed to be colder, so I’ll go with the Reps. Winning it now.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - hide

Version: 13

State Previous Current
AK R50S R40S
CO D50S D60S
ID R60S R40L
IL D50S D40S
IA D40T D40L
ME D40L D40S
MN D40T R40T
OH D50S D60S
OR D40L D50S
PA D50S D60S
SC R50S R60S
I switched MN to Republican due to the fact that it is so close and that Republicans normally win during bad weather—and it is supposed to be colder, so I’ll go with the Reps. Winning it now.


Version: 12

State Previous Current
GA R50S R60S
IA D40L D40T
MA D40S D50S
MI R50L R40T
MN R50L D40T
OR D50S D40L
RI R40T R50L
TX R40S R30S
VT R60S R50S
WI D50S D40L


Version: 11

I decided to change MI back to 50% Lean for DeVos!


Version: 10

State Previous Current
AL R50S R60S
AK D50S R50S
CA R50L R50S
CO D40L D50S
FL R50L R50S
IL D40S D50S
IA D50L D40L
MI R60S R40T
MN R40L R50L
OK D50S D60S
OR D40S D50S
SC R60S R50S
VT R50S R60S
WI D40L D50S


Version: 9

State Previous Current
CT R70S R60S
FL R40L R50L
IL D40L D40S
IA D40S D40L
ME D40T D40L
MD D50L D50S
MA D30L D40S
MI R60S R50L
MN D50S R40L
OR D40T D40S
TN D70S D60S
VT R60S R50S
WI D40T D40L

I'll do polls later


Version: 8

Here's the changes:
State Previous New
CA R40T R50L
HI R50S R70S
IL D40T D40L
IA D40L D50S
MI R50S R60S
MN D40L D50S
TN D60S D70S
____________________________________________
The polls:
AL: June 14: U of S. AL: Bob Riley (R) 53% Lucy Baxley (D) 25% Und 22%
____________________________________________
NY: June 14: Sienna Rsch. Institute: Spitzer (D) 57% Faso (R) 21% Und. 13%
____________________________________________
NY: June 14: Qunnipiac Univ.: 66% Eliot Spitzer 20% John Faso 1% Someone Else 2% Wouldn't Vote 11% Undecided
____________________________________________
PA: June 15: Strategic Vision:
Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Ed Rendell's job performance? Approve 48% Disapprove 39% Undecided 13%

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Governor Ed Rendell? Favorable 46% Unfavorable 40% Undecided 14%

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Republican Lynn Swann? Favorable 50% Unfavorable 37% Undecided 13%

If the election for Governor was held today, and the choice was between Ed Rendell (D), Lynn Swann (R), and Russ Diamond (I), whom would you vote for? Ed Rendell 49% Lynn Swann 38% Russ Diamond 2% Undecided 11%
____________________________________________
ME: June 15: Rasmussen: John Baldacci (D) 45% Chandler Woodcock (R) 43%
____________________________________________
MI: June 18: Strategic Vision:
Do approve or disapprove of Governor Jennifer Granholm's overall job performance? Approve 39% Disapprove 45% Undecided 16%

If the election for Governor were held today, whom would you vote for Jennifer Granholm (D)or Dick DeVos (R)? Dick DeVos 48% Jennifer Granholm 41% Undecided 11%
____________________________________________
AL: June 19: Survey USA: If the election for Governor of Alabama were today, and you were standing in the voting booth right now, who would you vote for? Bob Riley (R)? Lucy Baxley (D)? Or some other candidate? 51% Riley (R) 40% Baxley (D) 6% Other 2% Undecided
____________________________________________
PA: June 19: Qunnipiac Univ.: Rendell (D) 55% Swann (R) 31 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 DK/NA 11
____________________________________________
MI: June 20: EPIC/MRI: DeVos (R) 46% Granholm (D) 44% Und. 10%


Version: 7

State Current Update
AK D50L D50S
CA R50L R40T
FL R50L R40L
HI R50S R60S
ID R70S R60S
IA D50S D40L
MA D40L D30L
MN R40T D40L
NE R60S R70S
NV R60S R50S
NM D40T D60S
SC R50S R60S
SD R50L R60S
TN D50L D60S
TX R40L R40S
VT R40L R60S
WY D50S D60S


Version: 6

Changed CO to Dem. @ 40% and leaning.
Changed CA BACK over to Rep. (will stay there for a while--no matter WHAT the polls say).
Change AK to Dem. (but kept it as lean, b/c I thought that was a pretty conservative state.)
Put PA down to 50% Dem.
POLLS:

PA: 5-22/06: Rasmussen:
Survey of 500 Likely Voters
Ed Rendell (D) 52% Lynn Swann (R) 34%
____________________________________________

CA: 5-31/06: Field Research Corporation:
In a hypothetical Schwarzenegger vs. Westly fall pairing, the Governor holds a slim two-point
lead (44% to 42%) over Westly. In a Schwarzenegger – Angelides pairing, the Governor’s lead is seven points, 46% to 39%.
____________________________________________

AK: 6-4/06: Field Research Corporation:
Reps: Palin--43.6% Binkley--27.3% Murkowski--17.7% Undecided--11.2%

General election: Knowles has a 3% lead (w/in the m.o.e.) against Palin w/ <6% for Halcro (Indp.) and 10% Und.

Knowles beats Binkley by >8% w/ Halcro and Unds. the same.

Knowles beats Murkowski by >30%. Halcro up to 17% w/ 6% Und.
____________________________________________
tomorrow I'll try to get WI, NY, CT, and CO written up!


Version: 5

Changed TN to Dem. @ 50%, PA up to 60%, FL up to 50% and leaning, and CA to Dem. @ 50%.
CA poll: LA Times:
Do you think things in California are generally going in the right direction or are they seriously off on the wrong track?
–––––––––––––––––––––––––––Registered voters––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
REG DEM IND REP LIB MOD CON WHT LAT
Right direction 34 27 35 42 29 31 39 36 29
Wrong track 55 63 57 45 57 57 53 51 61
Don’t know 11 10 8 13 14 12 8 13 10
As you may know, Arnold Schwarzenegger is running for reelection as the Republican candidate for governor of
California. Will you definitely vote for Schwarnenegger for governor in the general election in November, or will you probably
vote for him, or will you probably not vote for him, or will you definitely not vote for him, or are you still considering your
choices?
–––––––––––––––––––––––––––Registered voters––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
REG DEM IND REP LIB MOD CON WHT LAT
Vote for him (net) 32 11 26 61 13 28 52 38 24
Definitely vote for him 18 5 9 40 4 10 35 21 14
Probably vote for him 14 6 16 21 9 18 17 16 10
Not vote for him (net) 47 74 42 17 73 47 25 42 63
Probably not vote for him 11 12 14 7 16 10 8 11 12
Definitely not vote for him 36 62 29 10 57 38 17 32 51
Still considering choices 19 14 29 20 14 21 22 18 13
Don’t know (net) 2 1 3 2 – 4 2 2 –

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Arnold Schwarzenegger is handling his job as governor? (IF APPROVE OR
DISAPPROVE) Do you (approve/disapprove) strongly or (approve/disapprove) somewhat?
–––––––––––––––––––––––––––Registered voters––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
REG DEM IND REP LIB MOD CON WHT LAT
Approve (net) 44 25 40 70 29 42 59 49 32
Approve strongly 13 6 8 26 7 10 22 17 11
Approve somewhat 30 19 32 44 22 32 37 32 21
Disapprove (net) 51 70 51 26 67 51 37 45 67
Disapprove somewhat 24 26 30 18 28 21 23 23 26
Disapprove strongly 27 45 21 8 39 30 14 22 41
Don’t know (net) 5 5 9 4 4 7 4 6 1

Would you say that Arnold Schwarzenegger has shown decisive leadership while serving as governor of California, or not?
–––––––––––––––––––––––––––Registered voters––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
REG DEM IND REP LIB MOD CON WHT LAT
Yes, decisive leader 50 35 50 70 38 51 61 58 36
No, not decisive leader 44 58 42 27 58 42 35 37 59
Don’t know 6 7 8 3 4 7 4 5 5
© Los Angeles Times 2006. All rights reserved. page 22 Los Angeles Times Poll/May 2006

Generally speaking, what is your impression of Arnold Schwarzenegger? As of today, is it very favorable, somewhat
favorable, somewhat unfavorable, very unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him to say?
–––––––––––––––––––––––––––Registered voters––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
REG DEM IND REP LIB MOD CON WHT LAT
Favorable (net) 49 25 50 78 29 49 66 55 31
Very favorable 15 4 12 31 6 12 25 19 8
Somewhat favorable 34 21 38 47 23 37 41 36 23
Unfavorable (net) 47 71 45 20 69 46 32 42 66
Somewhat unfavorable 22 29 30 11 32 21 16 21 23
Very unfavorable 25 42 15 10 37 25 16 20 43
Haven't heard enough 2 1 3 1 – 2 2 1 3
Don’t know (net) 2 3 2 – 2 3 – 2 –

Generally speaking, what is your impression of Phil Angelides? As of today, is it very favorable, somewhat favorable,
somewhat unfavorable, very unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him to say?
–––––––––––––––––––––––––––Registered voters––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
REG DEM IND REP LIB MOD CON WHT LAT
Favorable (net) 34 56 29 15 58 35 18 33 40
Very favorable 6 13 3 1 13 6 1 6 5
Somewhat favorable 28 43 26 14 45 29 17 28 34
Unfavorable (net) 26 15 21 41 16 23 36 29 18
Somewhat unfavorable 15 11 16 19 12 15 18 16 12
Very unfavorable 11 4 5 22 4 8 18 13 7
Haven't heard enough 36 24 46 41 24 38 41 34 37
Don’t know (net) 4 5 4 3 2 4 5 3 5

Generally speaking, what is your impression of Steve Westly? As of today, is it very favorable, somewhat favorable,
somewhat unfavorable, very unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him to say?
–––––––––––––––––––––––––––Registered voters––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
REG DEM IND REP LIB MOD CON WHT LAT
Favorable (net) 40 58 28 27 59 45 22 41 37
Very favorable 8 13 3 3 13 10 2 8 9
Somewhat favorable 32 45 26 24 46 35 20 33 28
Unfavorable (net) 17 11 13 25 11 12 26 19 12
Somewhat unfavorable 12 10 10 14 9 7 18 13 7
Very unfavorable 5 1 3 10 1 5 9 6 5
Haven't heard enough 38 24 54 46 29 37 46 35 46
Don’t know (net) 5 7 4 3 2 6 5 5 5

If the November 2006 general election for governor of California were being held today and the candidates were were
Arnold Schwarzenegger, the Republican and Steve Westly, the Democrat, for whom would you vote, Schwarzenegger or
Westly? (INCLUDES LEANERS)
–––––––––––––––––––––––––––Registered voters––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
REG DEM IND REP LIB MOD CON WHT LAT
Schwarzenegger 40 9 40 79 15 36 67 48 22
Westly 50 84 47 13 79 52 26 43 70
Someone else (vol) 1 – 1 – – 1 – 1 –
Don’t know 9 7 12 8 6 11 7 8 8

Arnold Schwarzenegger, the Republican and Phil Angelides, the Democrat?
(INCLUDES LEANERS)
–––––––––––––––––––––––––––Registered voters––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
REG DEM IND REP LIB MOD CON WHT LAT
Schwarzenegger 45 15 47 81 18 43 70 52 29
Angelides 46 76 41 13 75 43 26 41 61
Someone else (vol) 1 1 – 1 1 1 – 1 2
Don’t know 8 8 12 5 6 13 4 6 8


Version: 4

Some new polls:
MI--my map stayed the same--SurveyUSA
Three-day poll of likely voters--telephone interviews with 1200--age 18+--conducted May 19-21, 2006. The margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.

Do approve or disapprove of Governor Jennifer Granholm's overall job performance?
Approve 41% Disapprove 44% Undecided 15%
Do you think Michigan is headed in the right direction or the wrong direction?
Right 28% Wrong 61% Undecided 11%

Would you like to see the United States Supreme Court overturn the Roe v. Wade decision that makes abortions legal in the United States?
Yes 36% No 58% Undecided 6%

If the election for Governor were held today, whom would you vote for Jennifer Granholm, the Democrat or Dick DeVos, the Republican?
Dick DeVos 45% Jennifer Granholm 42% Undecided 13%
-------------------------
IA--increased Dem. by 10%--Research 2000

QUESTION: How would you rate the performance of Tom Vilsack as Governor;
excellent, good, only fair, or poor?
EXCELLENT GOOD FAIR POOR NOT SURE
ALL 10% 44% 37% 8% 1%
MEN 9% 41% 40% 9% 1%
WOMEN 11% 47% 34% 7% 1%
DEMOCRATS 18% 58% 21% 2% 1%
REPUBLICANS 2% 27% 59% 12% -
INDEPENDENTS 10% 47% 32% 9% 2%

2006 GOVERNOR RACE:
I am going to list the names of a few individuals who are active in public life. After Imention each one, I would simply like for you to tell me if you recognize that individual.
If you do recognize the individual, I will then ask you if you have a favorable or
unfavorable opinion of that individual.
A. The first name is ________. Do you recognize that name?
B. (IF YES) Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of ______?
FAV UNFAV NO OPINION
Jim Nussle 54% 31% 15%
Chet Culver 53% 25% 22%
Michael Blouin 44% 26% 30%
Ed Fallon 38% 28% 34%
QUESTION: If the 2006 election for Governor were held today, who would you vote for
if the choice were between, Chet Culver, the Democrat, and Jim Nussle, the Republican?
CULVER NUSSLE UNDECIDED
49% 41% 10%
QUESTION: If the 2006 election for Governor were held today, who would you vote for
if the choice were between, Michael Blouin, the Democrat, and Jim Nussle, the
Republican?
NUSSLE BLOUIN UNDECIDED
42% 39% 19%
QUESTION: If the 2006 election for Governor were held today, who would you vote for
if the choice were between, Ed Fallon, the Democrat, and Jim Nussle, the Republican?
NUSSLE FALLON UNDECIDED
46% 35% 19%
DEMOCRATIC SECTION ONLY (400 PRIMARY VOTES – margin for error is 5%)
QUIESTION: If you were voting today for the Democratic nominee for Governor, which
of the following would you vote for? (ROTATED):
ALL MEN WOMEN
Chet Culver 38% 40% 36%
Michael Blouin 25% 29% 21%
Ed Fallon 20% 17% 23%
Undecided (NOT READ) 17% 14% 20%
--------------------
IL--switched to Dem.--SurveyUSA

1,400 Illinois adults were interviewed 5/20/06 - 5/22/06. Of them, 1,240 were Registered Voters. Of them, 543 were judged to be "Likely Voters".
Asked of 543 Likely Voters
Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 4.3%

If the election for Governor were today, and you were standing in the voting booth right now, who would you vote for? Rod Blagojevich? Judy Baar Topinka? Or some other candidate?
43% Blagojevich (D) 37% Topinka (R) 15% Other 4% Undecided
----------------------
FL--decreased confidence to 40%Rep. and Toss-Up category--Quinnipiac
From May 15 - 22, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,086 Florida registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points. The survey includes 455 Democratic voters with a margin of error of +/- 4.6 percentage points and 424 Republican voters with a margin of error of +/- 4.8 percentage points.
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Jeb Bush is handling his job as Governor?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom
Approve 55% 87% 30% 54% 64% 48%
Disapprove 35 8 61 32 30 39
DK/NA 9 5 10 14 6 12
North/
PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE
Approve 57% 57% 62% 63% 45%
Disapprove 31 32 29 22 50
DK/NA 11 11 9 15 6
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Jeb Bush is handling his job as Governor?
Highest Lowest
Approve Approve
May 24 Apr 19 Feb 22 Nov 23 Aug 31 Sep 23 Aug 12
2006 2006 2006 2005 2005 2004 2004

Approve 55 55 54 53 53 62 45
Disapprove 35 36 35 37 39 30 44
DK/NA 9 9 11 9 8 8 11

Is your opinion of Congressman Jim Davis favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom
Favorable 9% 11% 11% 6% 10% 9%
Unfavorable 3 1 4 4 3 2
Mixed 8 6 9 11 7 10
Hvn't hrd enough 78 79 76 78 78 78
REFUSED 1 2 1 1 2 1

North/
PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE

Favorable 6% 17% 9% 9% 7%
Unfavorable 2 4 2 1 4
Mixed 11 12 7 6 7
Hvn't hrd enough 79 67 82 84 80
REFUSED 1 - 1 - 3
TREND: Is your opinion of Congressman Jim Davis favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
May 24 Apr 19 Feb 22
2006 2006 2006
Favorable 9 10 11
Unfavorable 3 4 3
Mixed 8 9 7
Hvn't hrd enough 78 75 77
REFUSED 1 1 1

Is your opinion of Attorney General Charlie Crist favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom
Favorable 34% 47% 24% 32% 38% 30%
Unfavorable 9 4 10 11 11 7
Mixed 14 12 16 13 11 16
Hvn't hrd enough 43 37 49 42 39 46
REFUSED 1 - - 1 1 1

North/
PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE
Favorable 33% 46% 32% 38% 26%
Unfavorable 8 9 8 8 9
Mixed 13 11 12 19 16
Hvn't hrd enough 46 33 47 35 47
REFUSED - 1 1 - 2
TREND: Is your opinion of Attorney General Charlie Crist favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
May 24 Apr 19 Feb 22
2006 2006 2006
Favorable 34 33 31
Unfavorable 9 8 8
Mixed 14 13 13
Hvn't hrd enough 43 45 47
REFUSED 1 1 2

If the 2006 election for Governor were being held today and the candidates were Jim Davis the Democrat and Charlie Crist the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom
Davis 40% 7% 71% 36% 37% 43%
Crist 37 78 9 31 42 33
SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 - 2 3 1 2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 2 2 2 2
DK/NA 19 12 15 28 18 20
North/
PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE
Davis 37% 38% 33% 34% 52%
Crist 32 44 43 44 28
SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 2 4 -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 - 2 3 2
DK/NA 26 16 20 15 18
TREND: If the 2006 election for Governor were being held today and the candidates were Jim Davis the Democrat and Charlie Crist the Republican, for whom would you vote?
May 24 Apr 19 Feb 22 Nov 15
2006 2006 2006 2005
Davis 40 39 36 40
Crist 37 37 40 39
SMONE ELSE 2 1 2 1
WLDN'T VOTE 2 2 1 1
DK/NA 19 20 22 19

If the 2006 election for Governor were being held today and the candidates were Jim Davis the Democrat and Tom Gallagher the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom
Davis 40% 8% 73% 32% 35% 44%
Gallagher 37 75 8 34 43 31
SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 2 2 1 2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 1 2 2 2
DK/NA 20 15 16 30 19 21
North/
PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE
Davis 37% 42% 33% 33% 49%
Gallagher 33 38 42 45 31
SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 3 2 - -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 - 1 3 2
DK/NA 27 16 22 18 18

TREND: If the 2006 election for Governor were being held today and the candidates were Jim Davis the Democrat and Tom Gallagher the Republican, for whom would you vote?
May 24 Apr 19 Feb 22 Nov 15
2006 2006 2006 2005
Davis 40 38 36 41
Gallagher 37 38 37 38
SMONE ELSE 1 1 1 2
WLDN'T VOTE 2 1 1 1
DK/NA 20 22 25 18

If the 2006 election for Governor were being held today and the candidates were Rod Smith the Democrat and Charlie Crist the Republican, for whom would you vote?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom
Smith 37% 8% 69% 29% 32% 42%
Crist 39 76 12 38 46 34
SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 1 - 1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 2 1 3 2
DK/NA 20 15 15 30 19 21
North/
PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE
Smith 36% 31% 30% 37% 49%
Crist 35 48 45 44 31
SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 2 1 - -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 5 2 2 - 1
DK/NA 24 16 23 19 19
TREND: If the 2006 election for Governor were being held today and the candidates were Rod Smith the Democrat and Charlie Crist the Republican, for whom would you vote?
May 24 Apr 19 Feb 22 Nov 15
2006 2006 2006 2005
Smith 37 37 32 36
Crist 39 39 42 41
SMONE ELSE 1 1 2 2
WLDN'T VOTE 2 2 1 1
DK/NA 20 21 23 20

If the 2006 election for Governor were being held today and the candidates were Rod Smith the Democrat and Tom Gallagher the Republican for whom would you vote?
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom
Smith 35% 5% 64% 28% 30% 38%
Gallagher 39 75 15 35 45 34
SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 2 1 1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 2 2 1 2
DK/NA 23 17 19 33 22 24
North/
PnHnd Bay Cntrl SthW SthE
Smith 38% 29% 31% 30% 41%
Gallagher 34 48 41 43 34
SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 4 1 - 1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 1 1 1 2
DK/NA 24 19 26 26 23
TREND: If the 2006 election for Governor were being held today and the candidates were Rod Smith the Democrat and Tom Gallagher the Republican, for whom would you vote?
May 24 Apr 19 Feb 22 Nov 15
2006 2006 2006 2005
Smith 35 35 34 36
Gallagher 39 41 38 41
SMONE ELSE 1 1 2 2
WLDN'T VOTE 2 2 2 2
DK/NA 23 21 25 19


Version: 3

OR poll from Rasmussen that I missed earlier--out on the 17th:
Survey of 500 Likely Voters
Ted Kulongoski (D) 43% Ron Saxton (R) 41%

And here's a comment that I put on my #2 prediction before I realized the OR poll a few hrs. later:

New TX poll:
Data Collected: 05/19/2006 - 05/21/2006
Sponsoring News Organizations: KEYE-TV Austin, WOAI-TV San Antonio

Filtering: 1,200 Texas adults were interviewed 5/19/06 - 5/21/06. Of them, 1,021 were Registered Voters. Of them, 605 were judged to be "likely" voters. Crosstabs reflect Likely Voters.

1 Asked of 605 Likely Voters
Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 4.1%

If the election for Governor of Texas were today, and you were standing in the voting booth right now, who would you vote for?
18% Bell (D) 16% Friedman (I) 41% Perry (R)
20% Strayhorn (I) 1% Other 3% Undecided

SurveyUSA
Edit

I had this up for a few mins., then wanted to look to see what else I could change, since all I changed was OR's confidence, so I switched HI to rep. b/c most people had it as that (I had it as Dem.). I was going to change MI to 50% DeVos, but am just too cocky I guess.


Version: 2

I updated it based on the polls, but decided to ignore some of the polls that were close and keep incumbants in.


Version: 1

The polls aren't really too accurate yet. All I have to say is, that I'm pretty sure that my home state, Michigan, will be smart enough to kick out Jennifer Granholm (D) and elect Dick DeVos! If anybody feels that I've errored on their state, please let me know, seeing as I've based these on what polls I've seen, and just kept 2002's election for what states didn't have polls.


Version History


Member Comments

 By: Cuivienen (I-NJ) - 2006-10-29 @ 12:04:29

Really? I'd expect Democrats to do better in cold weather since their support is concentrated in the cities where the polling stations are closer to home.prediction Map

 By: Inks.LWC (R-MI) - 2006-11-03 @ 22:01:03

No, it's because the elderly normally vote Democrat and won't go out as often in cold or bad weather.prediction Map

 By: db099221 (--CA) - 2006-11-03 @ 22:23:25

I don't get Michigan; Granholm's had a high-single digit lead for some time now. Also, you may want to reconsider your confidence in Idaho. The last two polls has it a tossup (the last one has Brady leading by 5 points).prediction Map

 By: Inks.LWC (R-MI) - 2006-11-06 @ 12:45:41

I plan on updating it one last time late tonight. As to MI, I'm confident in DeVos.prediction Map

 By: mbjr (I-MN) - 2006-11-06 @ 14:40:39

Actually, it's going to be 65+ degrees (and clear) in Minneapolis on election day tomorrow - near record highs. I assume that means that Hatch will win?prediction Map

 By: db099221 (--CA) - 2006-11-06 @ 15:12:23

Oh, snap!

http://www.weather.com/outlook/homeandgarden/schoolday/wxdetail/USMN0503?dayNum=1&from=search
prediction Map

 By: Inks.LWC (R-MI) - 2006-11-06 @ 23:23:38

ya, so much for Wx!prediction Map


User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2020 President /56 /56 /112 % pie 682
P 2020 Senate /35 /35 /70 % pie 422
P 2020 Governor /11 /11 /22 % pie 292
P 2019 Governor 3/3 2/3 5/6 83.3% pie 1 4 14T192
P 2018 Senate 31/35 25/35 56/70 80.0% pie 1 1 42T483
P 2018 Governor 30/36 26/36 56/72 77.8% pie 1 3 94T372
P 2017 Governor 2/2 1/2 3/4 75.0% pie 1 2 40T149
P 2016 President 52/56 35/56 87/112 77.7% pie 2 1 35T678
P 2016 Senate 31/34 23/34 54/68 79.4% pie 1 1 6T362
P 2016 Governor 9/12 5/12 14/24 58.3% pie 2 1 67T279
P 2015 Governor 2/3 2/3 4/6 66.7% pie 1 11 8T112
P 2014 Senate 33/36 24/36 57/72 79.2% pie 3 5 82T382
P 2014 Governor 29/36 18/36 47/72 65.3% pie 3 1 97T300
P 2013 Governor 2/2 1/2 3/4 75.0% pie 2 6 17T153
P 2012 President 54/56 46/56 100/112 89.3% pie 7 1 115T760
P 2012 Senate 30/33 18/33 48/66 72.7% pie 5 1 144T343
P 2012 Governor 10/11 7/11 17/22 77.3% pie 2 1 51T228
P 2012 Rep Primary 43/52 22/52 65/104 62.5% pie 37 - 22T231
P 2011 Governor 3/4 1/4 4/8 50.0% pie 1 332 79T106
P 2010 Senate 34/37 28/37 62/74 83.8% pie 16 0 21T456
P 2010 Governor 35/37 27/37 62/74 83.8% pie 8 0 17T312
P 2009 Governor 2/2 2/2 4/4 100.0% pie 5 6 1T103
P 2008 President 51/56 45/56 96/112 85.7% pie 32 1 74T1,505
P 2008 Senate 32/33 23/33 55/66 83.3% pie 14 1 28T407
P 2008 Governor 11/11 6/11 17/22 77.3% pie 10 1 86T264
P 2008 Dem Primary 42/52 26/52 68/104 65.4% pie 30 - 20T271
P 2008 Rep Primary 41/49 19/49 60/98 61.2% pie 31 - 11T235
P 2007 Governor 3/3 2/3 5/6 83.3% pie 4 21 58T167
P 2006 U.S. Senate 30/33 17/33 47/66 71.2% pie 10 2 232T465
P 2006 Governor 34/36 25/36 59/72 81.9% pie 14 1 36T312
P 2004 President 51/56 25/56 76/112 67.9% pie 24 4 1441T1,994
Aggregate Predictions 730/816 501/816 1231/1632 75.4% pie


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