Like my Senate predictions, these haven't changed since last time except in confidence and margins. The Democrats will gain 6 governorships, giving them the majority of statehouses across the nation for the first time in years.

Just fiddling with confidence this time. I think things have pretty well locked down as far as the governorships go. The one race in which there is a foreseeable storm before the election in in Nevada, where Congressman Gibbons is suing to release video tape which proves that he is not, in fact, a pervert who tried to molest a woman in a parking lot. If Gobbons wins and Nevadans get to see the tape, then he will win. If not, Ms. Titus will go into the election with the advantage.

I gave Iowa to the Democrats because they've been ahead there for a while, though I don't know if the lead will hold through election day. I'm starting to wonder whether the anti-Republican tide is really as strong as the media lets on. Certainly the governorships are one area where we're in trouble, but I doubt seriously that many voters (especially in states where Democrats will be winning the governorships) will be inclined to vote Democrat in either the House or Senate races there. I think things for the Republicans, while not all that great, are also not as awful as people seem to think.

Oregon is a tossup again, and Maryland is trending Democratic hardcore, so I gave them the state back as a pickup. Most of the confidence changes favor the Dems. Things are solidifying. And the mold they're taking on isn't looking too good.

I've given Maryland back to Governor Ehrlich because he's still in a very good place in the polls, and also because I believe the Senate race (Steele) will help him. Michigan is still a total toss-up, but I gave it back to Granholm because she's the incumbent, and also because DeVos is pretty unimpressive. Colorado, Arkansas, New York, Massachusetts, and Ohio will all probably go Dem. The only real good looking state for the GOP is Iowa, and even that state is not leaning as much to them as the 5 Republican seats are leaning Dem.

Giving Wisconsin back to the Dems and also giving them Colorado as another pickup. Races are quickly moving out of the toosup category into the "leaning one way or the other" camp.

I've shifted Ohio, Maine, and Maryland to the Dems and Wisconsin and Michigan to the GOP. I also adjusted margins and confidence levels. If the Dems make major inroads in 2006, the most likely place will the be in the governorships. Right now, things look good for them, but these elections are a far cry from settled.

Some minor changes in confidence and vote totals....the only changes of real note are that I no longer give Wisconsin and Illinois to the Republicans as pickups. The incumbents, however incompetent, are too entrenched in these places to be defeated at this time...but it's still a long time until November.

As of right now, these are my predictions for the gubernatorial races. Yeay for being able to predict on Dave Leip's site again! Tentatively, I'm giving the Republicans a net pickup of one seat though I know this defies conventional wisdom. I like governor Pawlenty though and ultimately I believe that Schwarzenegger will pull it out. However, I do foresee some of the seats which I have predicted to change, especially which now belong to the Democrats, becoming particularly contentious. It's going to be an interesting election!

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