PredictionsEndorse2006 Gubernatorial Predictions - Nik (R-TN) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2006-11-06 Version:9

Prediction Map
Nik MapPrediction Key

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map
Nik MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
25 |
36 |
50 |
Dem20
 
pie
Rep16
 
Ind0
 
Non14
 

Confidence States Won
25 |
36 |
50 |
Dem18
 
pie
Rep15
 
Ind0
 
Tos3
 
Non14
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem+1+5+600013114+6
Rep000-1-5-612416-6
Ind0000000000


Prediction Score (max Score = 72)

ScoreState WinsState Percentages
593623
piepiepie

Comments

Like my Senate predictions, these haven't changed since last time except in confidence and margins. The Democrats will gain 6 governorships, giving them the majority of statehouses across the nation for the first time in years.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - hide

Version: 8

Just fiddling with confidence this time. I think things have pretty well locked down as far as the governorships go. The one race in which there is a foreseeable storm before the election in in Nevada, where Congressman Gibbons is suing to release video tape which proves that he is not, in fact, a pervert who tried to molest a woman in a parking lot. If Gobbons wins and Nevadans get to see the tape, then he will win. If not, Ms. Titus will go into the election with the advantage.


Version: 7

I gave Iowa to the Democrats because they've been ahead there for a while, though I don't know if the lead will hold through election day. I'm starting to wonder whether the anti-Republican tide is really as strong as the media lets on. Certainly the governorships are one area where we're in trouble, but I doubt seriously that many voters (especially in states where Democrats will be winning the governorships) will be inclined to vote Democrat in either the House or Senate races there. I think things for the Republicans, while not all that great, are also not as awful as people seem to think.


Version: 6

Oregon is a tossup again, and Maryland is trending Democratic hardcore, so I gave them the state back as a pickup. Most of the confidence changes favor the Dems. Things are solidifying. And the mold they're taking on isn't looking too good.


Version: 5

I've given Maryland back to Governor Ehrlich because he's still in a very good place in the polls, and also because I believe the Senate race (Steele) will help him. Michigan is still a total toss-up, but I gave it back to Granholm because she's the incumbent, and also because DeVos is pretty unimpressive. Colorado, Arkansas, New York, Massachusetts, and Ohio will all probably go Dem. The only real good looking state for the GOP is Iowa, and even that state is not leaning as much to them as the 5 Republican seats are leaning Dem.


Version: 4

Giving Wisconsin back to the Dems and also giving them Colorado as another pickup. Races are quickly moving out of the toosup category into the "leaning one way or the other" camp.


Version: 3

I've shifted Ohio, Maine, and Maryland to the Dems and Wisconsin and Michigan to the GOP. I also adjusted margins and confidence levels. If the Dems make major inroads in 2006, the most likely place will the be in the governorships. Right now, things look good for them, but these elections are a far cry from settled.


Version: 2

Some minor changes in confidence and vote totals....the only changes of real note are that I no longer give Wisconsin and Illinois to the Republicans as pickups. The incumbents, however incompetent, are too entrenched in these places to be defeated at this time...but it's still a long time until November.


Version: 1

As of right now, these are my predictions for the gubernatorial races. Yeay for being able to predict on Dave Leip's site again! Tentatively, I'm giving the Republicans a net pickup of one seat though I know this defies conventional wisdom. I like governor Pawlenty though and ultimately I believe that Schwarzenegger will pull it out. However, I do foresee some of the seats which I have predicted to change, especially which now belong to the Democrats, becoming particularly contentious. It's going to be an interesting election!


Version History


Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2022 Senate /34 /34 /68 % pie 67
P 2022 Governor /37 /37 /74 % pie 63
P 2020 President 46/56 30/56 76/112 67.9% pie 5 6 655T684
P 2020 Senate 31/35 23/35 54/70 77.1% pie 4 4 101T423
P 2020 Governor 10/11 6/11 16/22 72.7% pie 3 6 211T293
P 2019 Governor 3/3 2/3 5/6 83.3% pie 2 3 14T192
P 2018 Senate 30/35 24/35 54/70 77.1% pie 8 0 106T483
P 2018 Governor 32/36 29/36 61/72 84.7% pie 7 2 6T372
P 2017 Governor 1/2 1/2 2/4 50.0% pie 1 2 98T149
P 2016 President 52/56 33/56 85/112 75.9% pie 8 0 66T678
P 2016 Senate 31/34 20/34 51/68 75.0% pie 6 0 60T362
P 2016 Governor 10/12 8/12 18/24 75.0% pie 6 0 3T279
P 2015 Governor 2/3 2/3 4/6 66.7% pie 4 1 8T112
P 2014 Senate 35/36 27/36 62/72 86.1% pie 16 0 4T382
P 2014 Governor 31/36 20/36 51/72 70.8% pie 16 0 22T300
P 2013 Governor 2/2 2/2 4/4 100.0% pie 4 1 1T153
P 2012 President 47/56 29/56 76/112 67.9% pie 11 1 702T760
P 2012 Senate 23/33 10/33 33/66 50.0% pie 5 1 319T343
P 2012 Governor 9/11 4/11 13/22 59.1% pie 4 1 179T228
P 2012 Rep Primary 43/52 20/52 63/104 60.6% pie 25 - 27T231
P 2011 Governor 4/4 2/4 6/8 75.0% pie 2 34 12T106
P 2010 Senate 33/37 24/37 57/74 77.0% pie 20 1 100T456
P 2010 Governor 33/37 26/37 59/74 79.7% pie 20 1 59T312
P 2009 Governor 2/2 2/2 4/4 100.0% pie 2 10 1T103
P 2008 President 45/56 28/56 73/112 65.2% pie 21 0 791T1,505
P 2008 Senate 30/33 22/33 52/66 78.8% pie 9 0 81T407
P 2008 Governor 10/11 7/11 17/22 77.3% pie 9 0 86T264
P 2008 Dem Primary 39/52 25/52 64/104 61.5% pie 15 - 33271
P 2008 Rep Primary 41/49 22/49 63/98 64.3% pie 14 - 7T235
P 2007 Governor 3/3 2/3 5/6 83.3% pie 2 51 58T167
P 2006 U.S. Senate 30/33 21/33 51/66 77.3% pie 9 1 133T465
P 2006 Governor 36/36 23/36 59/72 81.9% pie 9 1 36T312
P 2004 President 53/56 42/56 95/112 84.8% pie 18 1 49T1,994
Aggregate Predictions 797/918 536/918 1333/1836 72.6% pie


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