Election 2006 Gubernatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2006-11-07 Version:10

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		25 \|	36 \|	50 \|
Dem	21
Rep	15
Ind	0
Non	14

Confidence States Won

		25 \|	36 \|	50 \|
Dem	21
Rep	15
Ind	0
Tos	0
Non	14

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	+1	+7	+8	-1	0	-1	12	1	13	+7
Rep	+1	0	+1	-1	-7	-8	12	2	14	-7
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction Score (max Score = 72)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
49	31	18

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Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

By: RepubforDem (R-IL) - 2006-11-07 @ 00:18:31

Here goes, last Gubernatorial prediction. I mostly changed percentages here, as some of the incumbents are running better than I thought they would.

Obviously, the two I am least confident about are Illinois and Maryland. Ehrlich has a good chance to pull this one out but it will be close. The result in Illinois depends on how the third party candidate will do on Tuesday. Against conventional wisdom, most people are voting for Whitney as a protest against the two major party candidates. IF Whitney gets 10% or less, Topinka can pull this one out. If Whitney gets more than 10%, Topinka is doomed. Currently, Whitney is polling between 7-16% Either way, Blagojevich is a horrible governor, in many ways worse than George Ryan, and if re-elected, Blagojevich maybe forced out of office from corruption charges. Blagojevich is currently and consistently polling at 44%

By: padfoot714 (D-OH) - 2006-11-07 @ 01:00:49

does anyone know what the latest time we are allowed to switch our maps is?

By: RepubforDem (R-IL) - 2006-11-07 @ 01:15:45

Next week.

By: RepubforDem (R-IL) - 2006-11-07 @ 01:16:06

Seriously though, I don't know.

By: db099221 (--CA) - 2006-11-07 @ 10:48:38

Noon today (EST). It's at the top of the page here:

http://www.uselectionatlas.org/PRED/GOVERNOR/2006/pred.php

Last Edit: 2006-11-07 @ 10:49:24

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2006 U.S. Senate	33/33	17/33	50/66	75.8%	14	1	156	T	465
2006 Governor	31/36	18/36	49/72	68.1%	10	0	147	T	312
Aggregate Predictions	64/69	35/69	99/138	71.7%

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