PredictionsEndorse2006 Gubernatorial Predictions - michaelfh (I-CA) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2006-11-07 Version:11

Prediction Map
michaelfh MapPrediction Key

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map
michaelfh MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
25 |
36 |
50 |

Confidence States Won
25 |
36 |
50 |

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total

Prediction Score (max Score = 72)

ScoreState WinsState Percentages

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Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - hide

Version: 8

Has anyone read the news about the Nevada gubernatorial campaign? Cause they's hillarious

Version: 6

Given the incredible downward momentum of Deval Patrick's (D) campaign in Massachusetts (He went from a 39% lead to a 13% lead in less than a month!!!), I'm willing to predict that the GOP will hold on to Massachusetts in 2006. This is especially good news for Mitt Romney.

Version: 5

Pretty Quiet Season- except for MI, that is. Watch out for MA- it might just surprise you (though this seems unlikely now.)

Version: 4

Obviously the biggest change on my map is that I predict Massachusetts electing a GOP governor. Here's my reasoning: It looks more than likely that corporate attorney Deval Patrick will win the Dem primary, despite being the weakest candidate in matchups with the GOP candidate in the general election. Patrick will face GOP Lt. Gov. Kerry Healey in 3 way race that includes Independent Businessman Christy Mihos. Currently, Patrick leads Healey by about 4-10% depending on the poll.
However, let us remember two important precedents: 1) California- soon after the Dem primary, even though Angelides was ahead of Ahnold by about the same margin, Schwarzie was able to turn it around and is now favored to win. 2) In 1998, the exact same course of events happend in the primary- and, about 2 weeks into the election, GOP Lt. Gov. Paul Cellucci pulled ahead to win the general election.
I predict a close, but decisive victory for the GOP.

Version: 3

This map has been woefully ignored. Hopefully I'll start updating this more regularly.
Races to watch:

Version: 1

OH and NY are both going to be Democratic slaughterhouses...
I'll be very interested to see how ME, MI, IA, MN, and some of the others develop.
The two races I'm most interested in are Alaska and California (my future home is SF!)
CA because I'll be living there soon, and Alaska because this race has the potential to be VERY interesting- a current governor sagging in the polls with a strong primary challenge, and a former governor trying to reclaim his seat...It'll be fascinating to see what happens in the last frontier (and everywhere else too)

Version History

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2010 Senate 28/37 18/37 46/74 62.2% pie 28 158 291T456
P 2010 Governor 31/37 16/37 47/74 63.5% pie 18 158 197T312
P 2008 President 54/56 44/56 98/112 87.5% pie 13 3 41T1,505
P 2008 Senate 33/33 21/33 54/66 81.8% pie 4 0 48T407
P 2006 U.S. Senate 33/33 22/33 55/66 83.3% pie 16 0 46T465
P 2006 Governor 34/36 20/36 54/72 75.0% pie 11 0 81T312
P 2004 President 22/56 1/56 23/112 20.5% pie 1 28 1984T1,994
Aggregate Predictions 235/288 142/288 377/576 65.5% pie

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