Election 2006 Gubernatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2006-11-07 Version:11

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		25 \|	36 \|	50 \|
Dem	22
Rep	14
Ind	0
Non	14

Confidence States Won

		25 \|	36 \|	50 \|
Dem	21
Rep	12
Ind	0
Tos	3
Non	14

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	+2	+6	+8	0	0	0	13	1	14	+8
Rep	0	0	0	-2	-6	-8	11	3	14	-8
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction Score (max Score = 72)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
54	34	20

Comments
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Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - hide

Version: 8

Has anyone read the news about the Nevada gubernatorial campaign? Cause they should...it's hillarious

Version: 6

Given the incredible downward momentum of Deval Patrick's (D) campaign in Massachusetts (He went from a 39% lead to a 13% lead in less than a month!!!), I'm willing to predict that the GOP will hold on to Massachusetts in 2006. This is especially good news for Mitt Romney.

Version: 5

Pretty Quiet Season- except for MI, that is. Watch out for MA- it might just surprise you (though this seems unlikely now.)

Version: 4

Obviously the biggest change on my map is that I predict Massachusetts electing a GOP governor. Here's my reasoning: It looks more than likely that corporate attorney Deval Patrick will win the Dem primary, despite being the weakest candidate in matchups with the GOP candidate in the general election. Patrick will face GOP Lt. Gov. Kerry Healey in 3 way race that includes Independent Businessman Christy Mihos. Currently, Patrick leads Healey by about 4-10% depending on the poll.
However, let us remember two important precedents: 1) California- soon after the Dem primary, even though Angelides was ahead of Ahnold by about the same margin, Schwarzie was able to turn it around and is now favored to win. 2) In 1998, the exact same course of events happend in the primary- and, about 2 weeks into the election, GOP Lt. Gov. Paul Cellucci pulled ahead to win the general election.
I predict a close, but decisive victory for the GOP.

Version: 3

This map has been woefully ignored. Hopefully I'll start updating this more regularly.
Races to watch:
California
Colorado
Iowa
Arkansas
Illinois
Michigan
Texas
Florida
Massachusetts

Version: 1

OH and NY are both going to be Democratic slaughterhouses...
I'll be very interested to see how ME, MI, IA, MN, and some of the others develop.
The two races I'm most interested in are Alaska and California (my future home is SF!)
CA because I'll be living there soon, and Alaska because this race has the potential to be VERY interesting- a current governor sagging in the polls with a strong primary challenge, and a former governor trying to reclaim his seat...It'll be fascinating to see what happens in the last frontier (and everywhere else too)

Version History

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2010 Senate	28/37	18/37	46/74	62.2%	28	158	291	T	456
2010 Governor	31/37	16/37	47/74	63.5%	18	158	197	T	312
2008 President	54/56	44/56	98/112	87.5%	13	3	41	T	1,505
2008 Senate	33/33	21/33	54/66	81.8%	4	0	48	T	407
2006 U.S. Senate	33/33	22/33	55/66	83.3%	16	0	46	T	465
2006 Governor	34/36	20/36	54/72	75.0%	11	0	81	T	312
2004 President	22/56	1/56	23/112	20.5%	1	28	1984	T	1,994
Aggregate Predictions	235/288	142/288	377/576	65.5%

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