Election 2006 Gubernatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2006-05-21 Version:2

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		25 \|	36 \|	50 \|
Dem	19
Rep	17
Ind	0
Non	14

Confidence States Won

		25 \|	36 \|	50 \|
Dem	12
Rep	14
Ind	0
Tos	10
Non	14

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	+2	+4	+6	-1	0	-1	12	1	13	+5
Rep	+1	0	+1	-2	-4	-6	12	4	16	-5
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction Score (max Score = 72)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
48	33	15

Comments

Oh well whatever.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

By: ryer (R-VA) - 2006-05-21 @ 23:47:40

You may have needed a second try, but your predictions appear to be entirely plausible.

By: Minion of Midas (G-DEU) - 2006-05-22 @ 06:21:06

I still don't know owt about some of these races, but I just went with the majority on those...

By: cnbpjb (--GA) - 2006-05-22 @ 21:16:06

Well, if you went to the majority on this site, the majority still has Ohio, Oregon and California going Democratic in November, you might want to check that thought, again, Lewis.

By: Olawakandi (G-CA) - 2006-05-23 @ 00:27:10

You might want to change IL, and MI I think they will lose.

By: cnbpjb (--GA) - 2006-05-23 @ 06:50:07

MLEFLO1, I'm not so sure that Blagovich, D. will lose. Part of that would be a function of third parties that are more geared towards the right, where it would much more hurt Topinka, R. than Blagovich. Also Kerry's win in Illinois in '04 was much more heavy than in Michigan (also the win by Senator Obama in '04 my help Blagovich; I think Illinois will be a state where they blame President Bush and the Republicans in Congress, in the end in November, than they will the incumbent Democratic Governor).

Although, I will agree with you MLEFLO1, that Granholm may very well lose in Michigan.

I also wouldn't go for a loss of incumbent Baldocci, D. (sp?) in Maine (I think similiar outcome to Blagovich).

And also in Minnesota's last poll, one of incumbent Pawlenty, R.'s opponents, DFL Attorney General Mike Hatch was running 10% ahead (not that will be the be all and end all), but it shows a sign of weakness in Pawlenty. Although Minnesota's primaries aren't until September.

By: Minion of Midas (G-DEU) - 2006-05-23 @ 08:28:54

Hey, I said I went with the majority on races where I haven't a clue whatsoever, not on all races.

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2012 President	54/56	42/56	96/112	85.7%	3	3	265	T	760
2012 Senate	32/33	21/33	53/66	80.3%	3	3	56	T	343
2008 President	53/56	44/56	97/112	86.6%	8	1	55	T	1,505
2008 Senate	33/33	22/33	55/66	83.3%	5	4	28	T	407
2007 Governor	3/3	2/3	5/6	83.3%	1	163	58	T	167
2006 U.S. Senate	30/33	23/33	53/66	80.3%	6	1	88	T	465
2006 Governor	33/36	15/36	48/72	66.7%	2	170	157	T	312
2004 President	52/56	41/56	93/112	83.0%	9	1	98	T	1,994
Aggregate Predictions	290/306	210/306	500/612	81.7%

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