Election 2008 Gubernatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2008-11-04 Version:3

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		6 \|	11 \|	50 \|
Dem	7
Rep	4
Ind	0
Non	39

Confidence States Won

		6 \|	11 \|	50 \|
Dem	5
Rep	4
Ind	0
Tos	2
Non	39

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	0	+1	+1	0	0	0	4	2	6	+1
Rep	0	0	0	0	-1	-1	4	0	4	-1
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction Score (max Score = 22)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
20	11	9

Analysis

Here they are...my final predictions!

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - hide

Version: 2

This map reflects how I see each state going, based on formulas I worked on last week. I am already working like crazy to update everything, so expect some more frequent changes in my map later on. I will have complete predictions and explain how my formulas, which are very similar to Scott's on Election Projection, work.

Version History

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2010 Senate	34/37	23/37	57/74	77.0%	13	0	100	T	456
2010 Governor	34/37	26/37	60/74	81.1%	8	0	45	T	312
2009 Governor	2/2	2/2	4/4	100.0%	14	0	1	T	103
2008 President	54/56	43/56	97/112	86.6%	18	0	55	T	1,505
2008 Senate	32/33	23/33	55/66	83.3%	4	0	28	T	407
2008 Governor	11/11	9/11	20/22	90.9%	3	0	9	T	264
2007 Governor	3/3	3/3	6/6	100.0%	5	50	1	T	167
2006 U.S. Senate	33/33	19/33	52/66	78.8%	3	4	113	T	465
2006 Governor	35/36	28/36	63/72	87.5%	2	4	10	T	312
Aggregate Predictions	238/248	176/248	414/496	83.5%

Links

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