PredictionsEndorse2008 Gubernatorial Predictions - CR (--MO) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2008-11-03 Version:4

Prediction Map
CR MapPrediction Key

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map
CR MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
6 |
11 |
50 |

Confidence States Won
6 |
11 |
50 |

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total

Prediction Score (max Score = 22)

ScoreState WinsState Percentages


Overall I see very little change in the current make up of the govenor's races. The three tossup races in Missouri, Washington, and North Carolina are just that tossups. I have no idea who will win in any of them and in fact either side could claim victory tomorrow. Having said all that here is my final prediction and thoughts on the various races.

New Hampshire - Lynch should have no trouble with his reelection. He won in 2004 with 51% of the vote and again in 2006 with 71%. His popularity remains quiet high and I feel that given the trends in the Northeast he's very safe. We get a Republican govenor in New Hampshire but it won't be in 2008.

Delaware - Minner is term limited and can't run for reelection. I expect the current Lt Governor, John Carney, to retain the seat. Delaware is a trough state for Republicans to get elected in and with Joe Biden on the national ticket I think all the state's races are safely in the Democratic column.

West Virginia - Manchin should have no trouble holding his seat. His popularity is very high and he won in 2004 with 64% of the vote. West Virginia will vote GOP on a national level but currently as far as state politics go it's a solid safe seat for Democrats.

Montana - Schweitzer is another popular incumbent who won in 2004 50%-46%. Given his high approval ratings and the fact that he is running against a weak opponent I'd say Schweitzer will have no trouble in getting reelected. He's just too popular to unseat at this time.

Vermont - The incumbent Governor Douglas looks to be in fine shape to win reelection. He won his last election with 58% of the vote and has no serious challengers. To date his approval is still pretty decent. He's a liberal Republican, very much a Rockefeller. Even though Vermont tends to go Democratic national I doubt Douglas has anything to worry about.

Indiana - Over the summer it looked like Daniels might have some troubles in getting reelected. However as the campign has continued it looks like the race has settled down. It could be closer than his last election where he unseated the then-current Democratic governor by a margin of 53%-45%. However, he still has a strong standing and seems to have weathered the worst of his political storms. I expect him to retain his office.

North Dakota - Wildly popular Governor Hoeven won in 2004 with about 71% of the vote. Hoeven has one of the best approval ratings of any govenor in the country and so I think he is very safe in his bid for reelected. A solid, safe seat for the GOP.

Utah - It looks like Governor Huntsman is going to have an easy reelection as well. He won in 2004 by a margin of 58%-41%. He, like Hoeven, remains quiet popular and is facing a weak, token Democratic challenger. The seat is solid for the Republicans.

Washington - Current Governor Gregoire won her 2004 race by about 133 votes against Dino Rossi. Now his back for a rematch and this race is going to be tight any way you slice it. This is one to watch and really could go either way. Currently I think that Rossi could eek out a very slim win over Gregoire but it could easily go the other way.

North Carolina - Though Easley was a popular govenor, the GOP has a good organization in North Carolina and this could be a pick up. Lt Governor Beverly Perdue is running a strong campign for the Democrats but the popular Mayor McCrory of Charlotte is also been gainning momentum. It could go either way and we've seen it slide back and forth for several weeks now. I'd say this race is similar to the one in Washington state but I think McCrory's chances are much better than Rossi's.

Missouri - This is a race I hate to call for the Democrats. Jay Nixon has a high amount of name recognition as he's been our Attorney General forever. Kenny Hulshof is a good guy and we here in the 9th congressional district (my home district) highly approve of him. However, I'm not sure that he is that well known outside of the 9th District and St Charles. While Kenny should do well along the I-70 corridor I worry about turnout in the southern parts of the state. Sarah Steeleman did a lot of damage to him during the primaries down there. We'll have to wait and see but for now I'm calling this race for Jay Nixon.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments
 By: jamespol (I-MO) 2008-11-06 @ 14:18:53
lolz. Nixon won big! He will be the best governor ever.

And all the rethugs in the downballot statewide races lost..! LMAO!

The only rethug who won was Peter Kinder.. who I did vote for.
prediction Map

 By: CR (--MO) 2008-11-06 @ 19:53:55
Good old Peter Kinder, I'm glad he won. Well the GOP still controls the General Assembly and we got Blaine Luektmeyer elected over Judy Baker. Plus we held Missouri the McCain/Palin camp. Not a bad night for Missouri I'd say.

Let's hope Jay doesn't turn out like Holden. We'll see.....
prediction Map

 By: jamespol (I-MO) 2008-11-07 @ 01:25:57
I was very happy with the election results in MO, ConservRep, everyone who I wanted to win, won.prediction Map

 By: CR (--MO) 2008-11-08 @ 19:11:58
Well I'm glad for you James. prediction Map

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2016 President 51/56 30/56 81/112 72.3% pie 10 3 194T678
P 2016 Senate 30/34 16/34 46/68 67.6% pie 5 3 252T362
P 2016 Governor 9/12 5/12 14/24 58.3% pie 4 3 67T279
P 2014 Senate 35/36 18/36 53/72 73.6% pie 10 1 158T382
P 2014 Governor 32/36 20/36 52/72 72.2% pie 6 1 15T300
P 2013 Governor 2/2 1/2 3/4 75.0% pie 1 233 17T153
P 2012 President 52/56 38/56 90/112 80.4% pie 25 2 489T760
P 2012 Senate 29/33 19/33 48/66 72.7% pie 6 2 144T343
P 2012 Governor 10/11 8/11 18/22 81.8% pie 5 2 24T228
P 2012 Rep Primary 46/52 17/52 63/104 60.6% pie 29 - 27T231
P 2011 Governor 4/4 1/4 5/8 62.5% pie 1 245 37T106
P 2010 Senate 33/37 26/37 59/74 79.7% pie 19 1 63T456
P 2010 Governor 35/37 21/37 56/74 75.7% pie 8 1 106T312
P 2009 Governor 2/2 2/2 4/4 100.0% pie 2 3 1T103
P 2008 President 47/56 28/56 75/112 67.0% pie 44 1 702T1,505
P 2008 Senate 31/33 14/33 45/66 68.2% pie 7 1 257T407
P 2008 Governor 9/11 4/11 13/22 59.1% pie 4 1 232T264
P 2008 Dem Primary 43/52 24/52 67/104 64.4% pie 22 - 23T271
P 2008 Rep Primary 34/49 15/49 49/98 50.0% pie 23 - 55T235
Aggregate Predictions 534/609 307/609 841/1218 69.0% pie

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