Election 2010 Gubernatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2010-11-01 Version:6

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		19 \|	37 \|	37 \|
Dem	11
Rep	25
Ind	1
Non	0

Confidence States Won

		19 \|	37 \|	37 \|
Dem	8
Rep	20
Ind	0
Tos	9
Non	0

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	0	+4	+4	-3	-9	-12	4	3	7	-8
Rep	+3	+9	+12	0	-5	-5	6	7	13	+7
Ind	0	+1	+1	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1

Prediction Score (max Score = 74)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
56	35	21

Analysis
No Analysis Entered

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - hide

Version: 3

As it would be today - but a lot can / will change.

Version: 1

What is remarkable is that this reflects the 'Presidential map' - bar one or two states. I truly don't believe Obama really broke into the South and West in 2008 - those states in those regions that backed Obama are merely on loan to the Dems for now. Indiana, NC, NB will likley switch in 2012.

Speaking of 2012, if Pawlenty is the GOP candidate, and the GOP win the governorships in MI,WI,IO, then that doesn't bode well for Obama...

Version History

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2012 President	56/56	42/56	98/112	87.5%	2	36	182	T	760
2012 Senate	30/33	9/33	39/66	59.1%	1	36	268	T	343
2011 Governor	4/4	3/4	7/8	87.5%	1	100	2	T	106
2010 Senate	34/37	23/37	57/74	77.0%	7	1	100	T	456
2010 Governor	35/37	21/37	56/74	75.7%	6	1	106	T	312
2008 President	52/56	38/56	90/112	80.4%	31	1	219	T	1,505
2008 Senate	32/33	18/33	50/66	75.8%	4	2	117	T	407
2008 Governor	11/11	8/11	19/22	86.4%	3	2	27	T	264
2008 Dem Primary	16/52	0/52	16/104	15.4%	1	-	211	T	271
2006 U.S. Senate	30/33	14/33	44/66	66.7%	1	37	299	T	465
2006 Governor	36/36	14/36	50/72	69.4%	3	16	132	T	312
Aggregate Predictions	336/388	190/388	526/776	67.8%

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