I kinda stopped following the gubernatorial races, so most of this is just looking at the polls. The result for Florida is what I hope will happen there, since it's a pure tossup. It is insane that a corrupt fraudster like Rick Scott may actually win there.

Jan Brewer just signed away her re-election.

Only one major change: I changed Arkansas to a Democratic victory; I'm not sure what my original logic had been on that race. In other races: Alabama could become interesting if Roy Moore were to win the Republican primary there, and right now he at least has a chance of doing so. Also, the most recent polling from Oklahoma has militia proponent Randy Brogdon leading the Republican primary there, and most of the general election polling shows him as a fairly weak general election candidate, so I now have Oklahoma as a tossup.

I did consider shifting California to a Republican victory, but I'm not quite willing to make that call yet.

Biggest change is that I now have Perry losing in Texas. He's already in a tight race, and the Democrats may be able to get an advantage from an increased Hispanic turnout IF they can get a major immigration reform bill through Congress.

I think nationwide there may be a Libertarian Party/Constitution Party spoiler effect that we should be watching for. I don't see any similar spoiler effect to watch for on the left.

A few minor changes, in my opinion it's still a bit too far out to get a read on many of the gubernatorial races.

Two major changes: Wyoming now goes to the Republicans, as Freudenthal is not running for reelection. Also, I've put Deval Patrick below 40% in MA due to the three candidate race going on there.

I also changed Texas to a tossup: the most recent polling I've seen shows Perry leading, but with under 50% of the vote, and with Bill White easily within striking distance. Even Rasmussen is showing Perry under 50%.

The whole situation is still very fluid.

I think the anti-incumbent mood is going to be stronger in the gubernatorial races than in the Senate. As such, 15 states are changing hands.

I'm probably not going to go into detail on any individual races on here too frequently. I don't follow gubernatorial elections as closely as Senate elections.

-----------------

Edit: Oddly enough, I actually have most incumbents winning, but the open seats are switching hands all over the place.