Election 2010 Gubernatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2010-11-01 Version:114

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		19 \|	37 \|	37 \|
Dem	11
Rep	25
Ind	1
Non	0

Confidence States Won

		19 \|	37 \|	37 \|
Dem	6
Rep	22
Ind	0
Tos	9
Non	0

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	0	+5	+5	-3	-10	-13	4	2	6	-8
Rep	+3	+10	+13	0	-6	-6	6	6	12	+7
Ind	0	+1	+1	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1

Prediction Score (max Score = 74)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
58	33	25

Analysis
No Analysis Entered

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - hide

Version: 101

There are a lot more undecided races here than there are in the Senate. California, Oregon, Illinois, Florida, Vermont, Massachusetts, and Rhode Island are all still completely undecided where I wouldn't bet money on.

Version: 97

I'm leaving NY Strong Democrat for now, but recent polling indicates this race could be close.

Version: 81

Hm? I know the map looks a little weird. I think the GA GOP really goofed in nominating Deal. Colorado all depends on whether Tancredo stays in or not.

Version: 59

Republican's best scenario...possibly throw in California and Maryland

Version: 40

As of today, this is the best I see Republicans doing, and quite honestly, it is plausable as well.

Version: 19

Arizona and Wyoming flip...

Version: 18

New York drastically changes with the news that Giuliani won't be running.

Version: 10

New polling in Arizona suggests it may be closer than thought.

Version: 9

Wyoming depends on whether the term limit bill passes. The closest races will be Ohio and Arizona.

Version: 8

This is the best case scenario for Democrats. Texas could also switch if Hutchison were to lose the primary, then run in general.

Version: 7

I'm trending my way towards Democrats best scenario in order. Once I get there, I will go back to Republicans best.

Version: 6

This is what I'd see in a toss-up election. Ohio and Colorado, two `08 swing states, will be very close. I think the Rust Belt will swing heavily Republican overall, though. Remember, Strickland won in `06 with over 60%, so even a bare win for him would be an improvement for Republicans.
People are underestimating Georgia. Roy Barnes is a snake, a loser, but he has a following and a lot of money. This could be a close election.

Version: 5

Fun races to watch: Minnesota, Colorado, Arizona, Michigan, Rhode Island, and Ohio. Those will be the great races of `10 for Governor.

Version: 4

I feel strangely confident about Wisconsin.
NY changes due to rumor of Cuomo not running false.
If Coleman ran in Minnesota, he'd have a real shot.

Version: 3

Ohio should be a fun race. Not really sure who will win. I think McCain in Arizona could help Brewer to a narrow re-election victory. Wyoming will depend on if they reinstate term limits.

Version: 2

Okay, so maybe I am a little bit biased, but I think Republicans will win a lot back in Governorships. With news that Cuomo isn't running for NY Governor, I fully expect Giuliani to win this race now.
Races to watch:
Nevada Republican primary
Texas Republican primary
Wisconsin
Maine
Colorado

Version: 1

My first prediction! :)
Unsure on Wyoming, depends if incumbment is running for re-election. There are going to be a lot of switches this election, and a lot of incumbments falling down. I think the Rust Belt will sway Democrat. All have Democrat governors, all states are struggling. Some interesting races out West, but I expect Democrats to do well there.

Version History

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2024 President	/56	/56	/112	%					246
2023 Governor	3/3	3/3	6/6	100.0%	1	27	1	T	115
2022 Senate	31/35	22/35	53/70	75.7%	9	1	224	T	305
2022 Governor	34/36	28/36	62/72	86.1%	8	1	23	T	272
2021 Governor	2/2	2/2	4/4	100.0%	3	6	1	T	118
2020 President	55/56	43/56	98/112	87.5%	13	6	74	T	684
2020 Senate	31/35	19/35	50/70	71.4%	10	4	274	T	423
2020 Governor	11/11	8/11	19/22	86.4%	6	6	10	T	293
2019 Governor	1/3	1/3	2/6	33.3%	4	10	130	T	192
2018 Senate	32/35	21/35	53/70	75.7%	17	1	132	T	483
2018 Governor	33/36	28/36	61/72	84.7%	16	3	6	T	372
2017 Governor	2/2	1/2	3/4	75.0%	2	3	40	T	149
2016 President	50/56	35/56	85/112	75.9%	18	1	66	T	678
2016 Senate	31/34	20/34	51/68	75.0%	16	1	60	T	362
2016 Governor	11/12	7/12	18/24	75.0%	14	1	3	T	279
2015 Governor	3/3	2/3	5/6	83.3%	2	10	3	T	112
2014 Senate	35/36	27/36	62/72	86.1%	22	0	4	T	382
2014 Governor	29/36	18/36	47/72	65.3%	19	0	97	T	300
2013 Governor	2/2	1/2	3/4	75.0%	3	13	17	T	153
2012 President	53/56	39/56	92/112	82.1%	62	1	435	T	760
2012 Senate	30/33	17/33	47/66	71.2%	26	1	164	T	343
2012 Governor	10/11	6/11	16/22	72.7%	14	1	89	T	228
2012 Rep Primary	43/52	22/52	65/104	62.5%	43	-	22	T	231
2011 Governor	4/4	1/4	5/8	62.5%	14	1	37	T	106
2010 Senate	34/37	27/37	61/74	82.4%	128	1	34	T	456
2010 Governor	33/37	25/37	58/74	78.4%	114	1	74	T	312
2009 Governor	2/2	2/2	4/4	100.0%	18	1	1	T	103
2008 President	49/56	36/56	85/112	75.9%	67	1	357	T	1,505
2008 Senate	32/33	19/33	51/66	77.3%	23	1	96	T	407
2008 Governor	10/11	7/11	17/22	77.3%	16	1	86	T	264
Aggregate Predictions	696/765	487/765	1183/1530	77.3%