The hardest gubernatorial races to handicap are the threeways in CO and MA. The GOP would win both without the third party candidates. As it is, I am splitting my losses and giving CO to the Dems and MA to the GOP. For the other tossups, recent polling suggests wins for the GOP in CT and OR. The Dems seem to lead in HI, CA, and VT. Polling in FL is all over the place, but because of the early voting numbers, I tipped it to Scott. And in MN, the race is razor tight, but I tipped it to the Dems bc MN never fails to disappoint me. Ehrlich may be doing better than polls show in MD, but if they are right, he's in trouble. The only other race that bears mentioning is OH, where if John Kasich doesn't win and by a pretty healthy margin, I will eat my shoe. Any polls showing otherwise are just flat wrong.

This is the last I intend to update this map until right before the election.
Several governorships are absolutely gone for the Dems: WY, TN, KS, OK, MI, IA, and PA.
That is followed closely by NM, OH, ME, and WI, which have been strongly trending GOP for some time.
The Dems are down to 7 legitimate opportunities for pick-ups: CA, HI, MN, RI, VT, CT, and FL. HI has been trending strongly GOP in recent months. Brown may have sunk himself by calling Whitman a whore in CA. VT is a big question mark. Chafee may win RI as an Indy. Emmer stands an excellent chance in a 3 way race in MN. Scott is leading by a small margin in FL. And Foley is experiencing a resurgence in the polls and may be aided by the presence of McMahon on the ticket.
CO, OR, IL, and MA are giving the Democrats fits in recent polls, though they have some confort in CO and MA, where running in 3 ways may save them. The GOP will net a minimum of 10 seats, I think.

Gave MN and VT back to the GOP. Gave MD to the Dems and gave RI to Chafee. Also adjusted confidence and margins. Gubernatorial polls are amazing this year.

Gave FL and VT to the Dems for the time being and MA to the GOP. Also adjusted confidence and margins.

Gave MA and RI to the Dems. The ultimate results in MA and CO will depend on whether the 3rd party spoilers drop out. If they stay in the race, the Dems keep both. If they drop out, the GOP picks up both. Also adjusted confidence and margins. The surprising thing this cycle may turn out to be the GOP juggernaut that is headed straight for...CA...of all places.

Gave CO to the Dems due to the current GOP split, which may or may not resolve itself before election day. If Tancredo grows a brain, this goes GOP again. Also adjusted confidence and margins. Like the Senate races, many of the Governors races are starting to solidify into one camp or another.

Gave MN to the Dems for the moment. Gave MA to the GOP since I think Cahill is ready to call it quits. Also adjusted confidence and margins elsewhere.

Gave MD to the GOP and adjusted confidence and margins.

Susana Martinez is ahead of Diane Denish in the polls and Bill Richardson's popularity continues to sink. New Mexicans are opposed to Obamacare and favor Arizona's law. They are also strongly concerned by the failure of the Obama administration in the Gulf. What once was vaguely possible is now more likely than not. Republican takeover in New Mexico. Also, I adjusted some confidence and margins.

Some changes in margins and confidence to reflect recent trends, developments, primary results, filing deadlines, and polls. Also, took CT and MD from the GOP and gave them to the Dems. Took ME and OR from the Dems and gave them to the GOP. And took MA from Cahill(I) and gave it to the Dems.

Just margins and confidence adjustments, really.

Some minor adjustments of confidence and margins and gave MN back to the GOP for now.

Gave CT back to the GOP in light of recent polls showing Mr. Foley about 7 points ahead of either of the Dems, and adjusted race margins and confidence nationally.

Moved Cali and MD to the GOP for right now. Things are not looking good for the Dems. Obamacare is a devastating blow to their chances everywhere.

Gave CA and MN to the Dems for now.

Gave CA, MN, NY, and WI back to the GOP, chiefly based on polls that showed Walker ten points ahead in WI, Lazio coming up strong on Paterson in NY, and Whitman practically tied with Brown in CA. Also, with Domenici in the race in NM, there is a very good opportunity for the GOP to win there. It is staggering that the Dems have virtually no chance of holding PA, MI, or OH. And with Ehrlich set to enter the race in MD, even blue states seem tentative for the Dems right now. All of this demonstrates that the party is going to lose a massive number of governorships.

Adjustment. Gave HI, CT, WI, and MN to the Dems for now, and MA to the Independent. This map is probably a worst case scenario for the GOP at this point.

Gave Massachusetts and Wisconsin to the GOP and California to the Dems...almost gave Connecticut to them, too. Still a bloodbath of a year expected for the Democrats.

Note: This map shows the Dems keeping Colorado. That is an error. I clicked a button unintentionally.

There is a serious shakeup coming. Polls show the Republican candidates way ahead against Dems in MI(any of the 3 Reps beat Cherry), OH(Kasich beats Strickland), and PA(Corbett beats any Dem). Also, the Dems have veritably undefendable states opening up: Tennessee, Oklahoma, Wyoming, and Kansas. Governors Brewer and Gibbons will retire, making AZ and NV easy keeps for the GOP according to the polls. Whitman, Aiona, and Dubie are strengthening in CA, HI, and VT. Branstad is wiping the floor with Culver in IA. McInnis is increasing his lead against Ritter in CO. Even CT and MN seem keepable for the GOP, which is staggering. The Dems may even end up losing NY, WI, ME, and MA according to the polls. MD depends on whether Erlich decides to challenge O'Malley. Dems continue to sink everywhere, even in blue states, as they push socialized healthcare, cap and trade, bailouts, S-Chip, etc. Virginia and New Jersey were horrible omens for the Dems. And the trends are only getting worse.

Hold on to your butts...