PredictionsEndorse2010 Gubernatorial Predictions - michaelfh (I-CA) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2010-05-28 Version:18

Prediction Map
michaelfh MapPrediction Key

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map
michaelfh MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
19 |
37 |
37 |
Dem11
 
pie
Rep25
 
Ind1
 
Non0
 

Confidence States Won
19 |
37 |
37 |
Dem8
 
pie
Rep18
 
Ind1
 
Tos10
 
Non0
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem0+3+3-3-8-11628-8
Rep+3+8+110-4-47714+7
Ind0+1+1000000+1


Prediction Score (max Score = 74)

ScoreState WinsState Percentages
473116
piepiepie

Analysis
No Analysis Entered

Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - hide

Version: 5

More room for optimism for the Democrats with the governors' race.

CA, AZ and HI look like likely pick-ups for the Dems, but it's still too early to be sure. In CA especially, Whitman looks to be a strong contender. HI could also be a sleeper GOP upset.

NV: Definite GOP retention assuming Sandoval is the GOP nominee.

CO: Pure toss-up now that Ritter's out and Hickenlooper's in. Wait and see.

IA: Culver's dead in the water. The economy + his seeming endorsement of gay marriage will fuel a Brandstad victory.

MN and IL: pure toss-up, with slight GOP advantage in IL due to Blagojevich scandals and slight Dem advantage in MN now that Coleman's out.

WI: Toss-up, but in the current national environment + a current Dem incumbent = slight advantage to the GOP.

MI, OH, PA, TN, KS, OK: advantage to the GOP due to lack of strong challengers (MI & OH in particular + a struggling incumbent in OH.)

CT, VT: Likely Dem pick-ups at this point.

MA: pure toss-up- I fully expect it to trend GOP later this year. Cahill's Independent bid splitting the anti-Patrick vote is the only ray of hope for the Dems. But expect that anti-incumbent sentiment later this year + the rock-star appeal and campaigning of Scott Brown will fuel a GOP pick-up in Nov. 2010.

RI: Looking good for an Independent pick-up (Chafee.)


Version: 1

Looking to be a VERY bad year for the Dems in terms of governorships as well...


Version History


Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2010 Senate 28/37 18/37 46/74 62.2% pie 28 158 291T456
P 2010 Governor 31/37 16/37 47/74 63.5% pie 18 158 197T312
P 2008 President 54/56 44/56 98/112 87.5% pie 13 3 41T1,505
P 2008 Senate 33/33 21/33 54/66 81.8% pie 4 0 48T407
P 2006 U.S. Senate 33/33 22/33 55/66 83.3% pie 16 0 46T465
P 2006 Governor 34/36 20/36 54/72 75.0% pie 11 0 81T312
P 2004 President 22/56 1/56 23/112 20.5% pie 1 28 1984T1,994
Aggregate Predictions 235/288 142/288 377/576 65.5% pie


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