Election 2010 Gubernatorial Predictions

Note: The Google advertisement links below may advocate political positions that this site does not endorse.

Date of Prediction: 2010-11-02 Version:3

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		19 \|	37 \|	37 \|
Dem	15
Rep	22
Ind	0
Non	0

Confidence States Won

		19 \|	37 \|	37 \|
Dem	8
Rep	18
Ind	0
Tos	11
Non	0

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	0	+6	+6	-1	-9	-10	6	3	9	-4
Rep	+1	+9	+10	0	-6	-6	6	6	12	+4
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction Score (max Score = 74)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
57	35	22

Analysis

I can't believe I'm picking Kitzhaber in Oregon, it will be extremely close. Barrett gets carried by a far more Democratic electorate than polls assume in Wisconsin, but will come up just short. Patrick wins just barely and only because he's a Democrat in Massachusetts.

In other news, Strickland appears to be back from the dead, I'm giving him the narrow win, but this could go either way.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2020 President	53/56	43/56	96/112	85.7%	3	6	130	T	684
2020 Senate	30/35	20/35	50/70	71.4%	2	4	274	T	423
2016 President	48/56	29/56	77/112	68.8%	2	25	369	T	678
2016 Senate	30/34	18/34	48/68	70.6%	2	0	164	T	362
2014 Senate	31/36	18/36	49/72	68.1%	3	6	231	T	382
2012 President	55/56	47/56	102/112	91.1%	4	14	47	T	760
2012 Senate	31/33	17/33	48/66	72.7%	6	8	144	T	343
2010 Senate	34/37	23/37	57/74	77.0%	12	1	100	T	456
2010 Governor	35/37	22/37	57/74	77.0%	3	0	91	T	312
2008 President	54/56	38/56	92/112	82.1%	13	1	178	T	1,505
2008 Senate	33/33	18/33	51/66	77.3%	7	1	96	T	407
2008 Governor	11/11	6/11	17/22	77.3%	2	1	86	T	264
2006 U.S. Senate	33/33	20/33	53/66	80.3%	25	3	88	T	465
2006 Governor	34/36	11/36	45/72	62.5%	3	15	207	T	312
Aggregate Predictions	512/549	330/549	842/1098	76.7%

Links

	Gubernatorial Predictions - Most Recent
	Gubernatorial Predictions - Most Recent Comments
	Gubernatorial Predictions Home

Back to 2010 Gubernatorial Prediction Home - Predictions Home