Election 2012 Gubernatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2012-11-06 Version:21

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		6 \|	11 \|	50 \|
Dem	7
Rep	4
Ind	0
Non	39

Confidence States Won

		6 \|	11 \|	50 \|
Dem	5
Rep	4
Ind	0
Tos	2
Non	39

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	0	0	0	0	-1	-1	3	4	7	-1
Rep	0	+1	+1	0	0	0	2	1	3	+1
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction Score (max Score = 8)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
19	11	8

Analysis

Republican pickup one more governorship this cycle. Closest races are Montana and Washington. Democrats will prevail narrowly in both. Hassan is pulling away in New Hampshire. Negative coattails on the part of Mourdock in Indiana is hurting Pence in Indiana but not nearly enough to cost him the race.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - hide

Version: 20

Democrats make decisive late moves in guv races, however GOP makes more gains in their quest to have most governorships since 1998.

Version: 19

Montana, Washington, and New Hampshire appear to be the only competitive gubernatorial races this cycle.

Version History

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2024 President	/56	/56	/112	%					246
2023 Governor	2/3	2/3	4/6	66.7%	6	2	74	T	115
2022 Senate	35/35	28/35	63/70	90.0%	49	1	16	T	305
2022 Governor	35/36	27/36	62/72	86.1%	49	1	23	T	272
2020 President	54/56	39/56	93/112	83.0%	111	6	260	T	684
2020 Senate	32/35	23/35	55/70	78.6%	65	4	66	T	423
2020 Governor	11/11	7/11	18/22	81.8%	19	21	51	T	293
2019 Governor	1/3	1/3	2/6	33.3%	2	10	130	T	192
2018 Senate	33/35	23/35	56/70	80.0%	46	4	42	T	483
2018 Governor	32/36	18/36	50/72	69.4%	45	6	226	T	372
2016 President	51/56	38/56	89/112	79.5%	63	1	17	T	678
2016 Senate	32/34	24/34	56/68	82.4%	55	1	1		362
2016 Governor	10/12	6/12	16/24	66.7%	25	1	25	T	279
2014 Senate	33/36	26/36	59/72	81.9%	34	1	42	T	382
2014 Governor	30/36	16/36	46/72	63.9%	31	0	123	T	300
2012 President	52/56	41/56	93/112	83.0%	157	0	401	T	760
2012 Senate	30/33	20/33	50/66	75.8%	66	0	111	T	343
2012 Governor	11/11	8/11	19/22	86.4%	21	0	5	T	228
2012 Rep Primary	42/52	18/52	60/104	57.7%	105	-	41	T	231
2011 Governor	4/4	1/4	5/8	62.5%	5	0	37	T	106
2010 Senate	35/37	26/37	61/74	82.4%	93	2	34	T	456
2010 Governor	34/37	25/37	59/74	79.7%	94	1	59	T	312
2009 Governor	2/2	2/2	4/4	100.0%	14	1	1	T	103
2008 President	52/56	42/56	94/112	83.9%	183	1	115	T	1,505
2008 Senate	32/33	23/33	55/66	83.3%	101	1	28	T	407
2008 Governor	11/11	6/11	17/22	77.3%	43	1	86	T	264
2007 Governor	3/3	2/3	5/6	83.3%	8	2	58	T	167
2006 U.S. Senate	31/33	24/33	55/66	83.3%	94	1	46	T	465
2006 Governor	33/36	28/36	61/72	84.7%	103	1	22	T	312
2004 President	53/56	42/56	95/112	84.8%	140	2	49	T	1,994
Aggregate Predictions	816/884	586/884	1402/1768	79.3%