PredictionsEndorse2014 Gubernatorial Predictions - nyancat (R-CA) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2014-09-19 Version:4

Prediction Map
nyancat MapPrediction Key

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map
nyancat MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
19 |
36 |
50 |
Dem13
 
pie
Rep23
 
Ind0
 
Non14
 

Confidence States Won
19 |
36 |
50 |
Dem13
 
pie
Rep23
 
Ind0
 
Tos0
 
Non14
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem+30+3-2-1-382100
Rep+2+1+3-20-217320+1
Ind000-10-1000-1


Analysis

My rating system is based on data compiled from 10 sources and uses a scale of 3 categories (Safe/Likely/Weak) for each party (Republican/Democrat/Independent). The rating is based on a numerical score where a likelihood of victory less than 67% is Weak, 67-83% is Likely, and greater than 83% is Safe. To fit within this site's rating system, the Likely category is split in half so that a likelihood of 75% or more is "Strong" and less than 75% is "Lean." No races are rated as Toss Up.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments
 By: nyancat (R-CA) 2014-09-19 @ 19:57:45 prediction Map
September 2014 Update: Arizona from Strong R to Lean R ***** August 2014 Update: Colorado from Strong D to Lean D, Connecticut from Lean D to Lean R, Florida from Lean D to Lean R, Georgia from Strong R to Lean R, Hawaii from Strong D to Lean D, Kansas from Strong R to Lean R, Wisconsin from Strong R to Lean R ***** May 2014 Update: Illinois from Lean D to Lean R, Pennsylvania from Lean D to Strong D


User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2018 Senate 33/35 22/35 55/70 78.6% pie 1 0 67T
P 2018 Governor 32/36 18/36 50/72 69.4% pie 1 2 226T
P 2015 Governor 1/3 1/3 2/6 33.3% pie 2 2 72T
P 2014 Senate 35/36 25/36 60/72 83.3% pie 10 0 21T
P 2014 Governor 31/36 16/36 47/72 65.3% pie 10 0 97T
Aggregate Predictions 132/146 82/146 214/292 73.3% pie



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