Date of Prediction: 2014-11-04 Version:2
Prediction Map * = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat Confidence Map
Prediction States Won
Confidence States Won
State Pick-ups
Prediction Score (max Score = 72)
Analysis
The Republican class of 2010 should lose a number of its members. They have not done a very good job, in a number of cases, a terrible job, and their careers will end tonight. But some of them are in close races and they might eke out a victory or 2. Some Democrats are also in a similar position, but with the advantage of being in blue states, they will probably survive. It should be an interesting and suspenseful night.<br />
Prediction History
Comments History
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Version: 1 A very interesting dynamic will be at play in 2014. Republicans who ran and won in a very favorable year in 2010 will probably be facing a very different environment this time around. A number of them are upside-down in popularity, and if facing a strong democratic candidate, could well lose. On the other hand, typically in non-presidential year elections the electorate is older and whiter, and thus more favorable to republicans. How all this plays out remains to be seen.
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