Election 2015 Gubernatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2015-11-01 Version:2

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		2 \|	3 \|	50 \|
Dem	1
Rep	2
Ind	0
Non	47

Confidence States Won

		2 \|	3 \|	50 \|
Dem	1
Rep	2
Ind	0
Tos	0
Non	47

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0
Rep	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	2	0
Ind	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction Score (max Score = 6)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
2	1	1

Analysis

My rating system is based on data compiled from 4 sources and uses a scale of 3 categories (Safe/Likely/Weak) for each party (Republican/Democrat/Independent). The rating is based on a numerical score where a likelihood of victory less than 67% is Weak, 67-83% is Likely, and greater than 83% is Safe. To fit within this site's rating system, the Likely category is split in half so that a likelihood of 75% or more is "Strong" and less than 75% is "Lean." No races are rated as Toss Up.

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - show

Version History

Member Comments

By: nyancat (R-CA) 2015-11-01 @ 15:28:46
Nov. Final Update: Kentucky from Lean R to Lean D, Louisiana from Strong R to Lean R ***** Mar Update: First version

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2018 Senate	33/35	22/35	55/70	78.6%	1	0	67	T	483
2018 Governor	32/36	18/36	50/72	69.4%	1	2	226	T	372
2015 Governor	1/3	1/3	2/6	33.3%	2	2	72	T	112
2014 Senate	35/36	25/36	60/72	83.3%	10	0	21	T	382
2014 Governor	31/36	16/36	47/72	65.3%	10	0	97	T	300
Aggregate Predictions	132/146	82/146	214/292	73.3%