Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Prediction States Won

		19 |	36 |	50 |
Dem	20
Rep	16
Ind	0
Non	14

Confidence States Won

		19 |	36 |	50 |
Dem	14
Rep	13
Ind	0
Tos	9
Non	14

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	+3	+8	+11	0	0	0	5	4	9	+11
Rep	+1	0	+1	-3	-8	-11	10	5	15	-10
Ind	0	0	0	-1	0	-1	0	0	0	-1

Prediction Score (max Score = 72)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
55	32	23

Analysis

Final map, with just a few percentage adjustments from the previous iteration. No really a whole lot of analysis to add, large Democratic gains seem quite likely in the gubernatorial races this year.

Prediction History

Comments History - hide

Version: 25

Only one major change with Nevada going from Republican to Democratic. Will post one more update on Monday.

Version: 24

Only one big change, switching Ohio from Republican to Democratic.

Version: 23

Changed Nevada from Democratic to Republican.

Version: 22

Two major changes, with Colorado shifting to Safe Democratic and Alaska moving from Lean Republican to Tossup with Bill Walker dropping his Independent re-election bid.

Version: 21

Not sure if I'll stick with this through election day, but moving Kansas to Democratic for now.

Version: 20

Biggest changes are probably Maine to Lean Democratic and Rhode Island to Safe Democratic.

Version: 19

A few significant changes, including Alaska to Lean Republican (probably won't be moving to Safe ever due to the difficulties of polling a three candidate race) and New York to 60% Democratic.

Version: 18

Only one significant move, shifting Arizona from Tossup to Lean Republican. Thought about moving Wisconsin to Lean Democratic, but decided to hold off on it for just a bit.

Version: 17

Biggest move here is the shift of South Dakota from Lean Republican to Tossup.

Version: 16

A few big changes on this map, including switching Arizona to Republican and Iowa to Democratic, moving Florida from Tossup to Lean Democratic, and moving Minnesota from Lean Democratic to Safe Democratic.

Version: 15

A few confidence changes, including Michigan to Safe Democratic and Tennessee back to Safe Republican.

Version: 14

Only some very minor percentage changes. I was tempted to move Michigan to Safe Democratic, but decided to hold off for the moment.

Version: 13

Just a few changes of confidence levels, specifically Illinois and Connecticut.

Version: 12

Still trying to get used to some of these usually heavily Republican states looking competitive.

Version: 11

Several improvements for Democrats in this map, including flipping Florida from Republican to Democratic - as it looks likely the Republicans will nominate their weaker candidate in DeSantis - as well as multiple races that I previously considered Safe Republican moving to Lean Republican based on some recent polling.

Version: 10

A lot of big updates in this map, including switching Arizona to Democratic and Florida to Republican, shifting Michigan from Tossup to Lean Democratic, and shifting several gubernatorial races in the Northeast (where I had refrained from moving them due to a lack of polling, but have finally grown impatient) from Lean Republican to Safe Republican.

Version: 9

Apparently Bill Walker is no longer running in the Democratic primary in Alaska and will instead be running as an Independent. Still a very fluid situation, but absolutely plausible the Republican candidate now wins with a small plurality of the vote.

Version: 8

I'll admit that I'm completely lost as to what is happening in Alaska, where former Senator Mark Begich is now running for the Democratic nomination and where the polls are, for some reason, including Bill Walker in the general election as an independent candidate despite the fact that he is running in the Democratic primary. I think I might just not update the prediction for that state until after the primaries are over and I know what is going on.

Version: 7

Biggest change on this map is almost certainly Ohio, which goes from Republican to Democratic, though still a Tossup.

Version: 6

Only one minor change from the last map, with Iowa moving from Lean Republican to Tossup. As with the Senate races, I'm frustrated by the lack of new state-by-state polling.

Version: 5

Only change for this map is shifting Alaska from Democratic to Independent. After looking into the situation there further, it appears that Bill Walker will still appear on the ballot as an Independent, even though he is seeking the Democratic nomination.

Version: 4

A few substantial changes, including moving Alaska to Democratic since Bill Walker is now running in the Democratic primary rather than as an Independent, and New York to only 50% Democratic since Nixon has secured the Working Families Party ballot line.

Version: 3

Just some minor updates, mostly in response to new polling.

Version: 2

Refining my prediction now that I've had a bit more time to review some of the races that I hadn't been following as much.

Version: 1

I guess I'm making one of these too, for some reason.

Version History

26: 2018-11-05 @ 20:46:02 25: 2018-11-02 @ 19:18:10 24: 2018-10-30 @ 19:40:50 23: 2018-10-27 @ 19:24:25 22: 2018-10-23 @ 20:26:11 21: 2018-10-19 @ 19:08:48 20: 2018-10-14 @ 19:31:47 19: 2018-10-09 @ 21:16:08 18: 2018-10-03 @ 20:16:27 17: 2018-09-28 @ 18:11:06 16: 2018-09-21 @ 20:35:57 15: 2018-09-13 @ 20:29:06 14: 2018-09-03 @ 18:34:17 13: 2018-08-24 @ 19:21:28 12: 2018-08-13 @ 19:10:44 11: 2018-08-02 @ 20:22:46 10: 2018-07-23 @ 21:22:22 9: 2018-07-10 @ 20:38:25 8: 2018-06-30 @ 21:53:36 7: 2018-06-18 @ 20:20:59 6: 2018-06-07 @ 20:02:02 5: 2018-05-24 @ 19:04:37 4: 2018-05-13 @ 19:43:39 3: 2018-04-30 @ 21:33:13 2: 2018-04-17 @ 23:27:54 1: 2018-04-07 @ 20:45:11 View Version

Member Comments

By: darthpi (D-PA) 2018-11-05 @ 20:46:09
And please, everyone, tomorrow: Get out there and vote. The future of our constitutional republic depends on it.

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