Election 2018 Gubernatorial Predictions

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Date of Prediction: 2018-11-06 Version:15

Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map

Prediction States Won

		19 \|	36 \|	50 \|
Dem	18
Rep	18
Ind	0
Non	14

Confidence States Won

		19 \|	36 \|	50 \|
Dem	13
Rep	13
Ind	0
Tos	10
Non	14

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	+3	+6	+9	0	0	0	5	4	9	+9
Rep	+1	0	+1	-3	-6	-9	10	7	17	-8
Ind	0	0	0	-1	0	-1	0	0	0	-1

Prediction Score (max Score = 72)

Score	State Wins	State Percentages
52	32	20

Analysis

FINAL

Prediction History
Prediction Graph

Comments History - hide

Version: 11

Tossup Ratings: [Tilt R: Ohio, Oklahoma] [Pure Tossups: Iowa, Georgia, Kansas, Nevada] [Tilt D: Wisconsin, Florida]

Version: 10

Tossup Ratings: [Tilt R: Alaska, Ohio] [Pure Tossups: Iowa, Georgia, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nevada] [Tilt D: Wisconsin, Florida]

Version: 8

Here's a big update, taking into account the frontrunners or nominees, Democrats are currently leading in states like OK, AZ, KS, and GA. I also have enough info to believe they will win NM, ME, IL, MI, and FL while holding CO, CT, and PA. OH, NV, and WI are still tossups, and TN, SD, IA, and VT are less favored for the GOP.

Version History

Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score	States	Percent	Total	Accuracy	Ver	#D	Rank		#Pred
2024 President	/56	/56	/112	%					246
2023 Governor	3/3	3/3	6/6	100.0%	4	56	1	T	115
2022 Senate	32/35	25/35	57/70	81.4%	15	1	124	T	305
2022 Governor	34/36	25/36	59/72	81.9%	17	1	88	T	272
2021 Governor	1/2	1/2	2/4	50.0%	1	73	48	T	118
2020 President	53/56	48/56	101/112	90.2%	15	8	23	T	684
2020 Senate	31/35	26/35	57/70	81.4%	15	8	25	T	423
2020 Governor	11/11	5/11	16/22	72.7%	5	49	211	T	293
2019 Governor	3/3	2/3	5/6	83.3%	2	92	14	T	192
2018 Senate	32/35	18/35	50/70	71.4%	22	0	246	T	483
2018 Governor	32/36	20/36	52/72	72.2%	15	2	189	T	372
2017 Governor	2/2	1/2	3/4	75.0%	5	80	40	T	149
2016 President	50/56	17/56	67/112	59.8%	14	0	597	T	678
2016 Senate	32/34	9/34	41/68	60.3%	5	3	336	T	362
Aggregate Predictions	316/344	200/344	516/688	75.0%