Prediction Map

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Prediction States Won

		19 |	36 |	50 |
Dem	16
Rep	20
Ind	0
Non	14

Confidence States Won

		19 |	36 |	50 |
Dem	12
Rep	15
Ind	0
Tos	9
Non	14

State Pick-ups

	Gain			Loss			Hold			Net Gain
	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total	Inc.	Open	Total
Dem	+2	+5	+7	0	0	0	5	4	9	+7
Rep	+1	0	+1	-2	-5	-7	11	8	19	-6
Ind	0	0	0	-1	0	-1	0	0	0	-1

Analysis

Probably final gubernatorial predictions. Some of these races are less polled than their senatorial equivalents; the only really wild upset I pulled is Sutton. Every year someone wins truly out-of-nowhere and some unpopular but respected/competent governor gets reelected (for 2014, Hogan and Scott; for 2010, LePage and Quinn); going with Sutton and Walker as my nominations this time around. Knocking off incumbent governors is hard, and when it happens polls are usually unanimous about it. Otherwise broke tossups and bad Democratic campaigns in blue states (CT/OR are glaring examples here) to the Dems.

Prediction History

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Version History

2: 2018-10-23 @ 01:19:49 1: 2018-01-24 @ 01:34:33 View Version