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Date of Prediction: 2018-10-23 Version:2

Prediction Map
Vosem MapPrediction Key

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map
Vosem MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
19 |
36 |
50 |
Dem16
 
pie
Rep20
 
Ind0
 
Non14
 

Confidence States Won
19 |
36 |
50 |
Dem12
 
pie
Rep15
 
Ind0
 
Tos9
 
Non14
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem+2+5+7000549+7
Rep+10+1-2-5-711819-6
Ind000-10-1000-1


Analysis

Probably final gubernatorial predictions. Some of these races are less polled than their senatorial equivalents; the only really wild upset I pulled is Sutton. Every year someone wins truly out-of-nowhere and some unpopular but respected/competent governor gets reelected (for 2014, Hogan and Scott; for 2010, LePage and Quinn); going with Sutton and Walker as my nominations this time around. Knocking off incumbent governors is hard, and when it happens polls are usually unanimous about it. Otherwise broke tossups and bad Democratic campaigns in blue states (CT/OR are glaring examples here) to the Dems.


Prediction History
Prediction Graph


Comments History - show

Version History


Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank
P 2018 Senate /33 /33 /66 % pie
P 2018 Governor /36 /36 /72 % pie
P 2016 President 44/56 23/56 67/112 59.8% pie 3 0 597T
P 2016 Senate 31/34 16/34 47/68 69.1% pie 4 0 213T
P 2014 Senate 34/36 26/36 60/72 83.3% pie 8 2 21T
P 2014 Governor 31/36 20/36 51/72 70.8% pie 7 2 22T
P 2013 Governor 2/2 0/2 2/4 50.0% pie 2 0 98T
Aggregate Predictions 142/164 85/164 227/328 69.2% pie



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