PredictionsEndorse2019 Gubernatorial Predictions - Oldiesfreak1854 (R-MI) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2019-11-04 Version:1

Prediction Map
Oldiesfreak1854 MapPrediction Key

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map
Oldiesfreak1854 MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
2 |
3 |
50 |
Dem3
 
pie
Rep0
 
Ind0
 
Non47
 

Confidence States Won
2 |
3 |
50 |
Dem1
 
pie
Rep0
 
Ind0
 
Tos2
 
Non47
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem+1+1+2000101+2
Rep000-1-1-2000-2
Ind0000000000


Analysis

I'm predicting a Democrat sweep, though I'm not as confident about Mississippi as the other two. I have trouble believing the polls that show a close runoff in Louisiana, and in any case I would seriously eat my hat if Edwards were to actually lose. As for Kentucky, I'm pretty sure Bevin is toast.


Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2019 Governor /3 /3 /6 % pie 191
P 2018 Senate 29/35 14/35 43/70 61.4% pie 2 200 417T483
P 2018 Governor 30/36 15/36 45/72 62.5% pie 1 301 295T372
P 2017 Governor 2/2 1/2 3/4 75.0% pie 1 31 40T149
P 2016 President 42/56 12/56 54/112 48.2% pie 5 47 660T678
P 2016 Senate 31/34 17/34 48/68 70.6% pie 4 63 164T362
P 2016 Governor 11/12 7/12 18/24 75.0% pie 1 63 3T279
P 2015 Governor 2/3 2/3 4/6 66.7% pie 4 7 8T112
P 2014 Senate 35/36 27/36 62/72 86.1% pie 13 4 4T382
P 2014 Governor 30/36 17/36 47/72 65.3% pie 12 4 97T300
P 2013 Governor 2/2 1/2 3/4 75.0% pie 1 234 17T153
P 2012 President 53/56 33/56 86/112 76.8% pie 8 5 591T760
P 2012 Senate 31/33 17/33 48/66 72.7% pie 4 12 144T343
P 2012 Governor 10/11 6/11 16/22 72.7% pie 3 1 89T228
Aggregate Predictions 308/352 169/352 477/704 67.8% pie


Kentucky Louisiana Mississippi

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