PredictionsEndorse2020 Gubernatorial Predictions - Jaxster37 (D-FL) ResultsPolls
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Date of Prediction: 2020-09-18 Version:1

Prediction Map
Jaxster37 MapPrediction Key

* = Pickup via defeat of incumbent; ^ = Pickup of an open seat

Confidence Map
Jaxster37 MapConfidence Key

Prediction States Won
6 |
11 |
50 |
Dem3
 
pie
Rep8
 
Ind0
 
Non39
 

Confidence States Won
6 |
11 |
50 |
Dem3
 
pie
Rep7
 
Ind0
 
Tos1
 
Non39
 

State Pick-ups

Gain Loss Hold Net Gain
Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total Inc. Open Total
Dem0000-1-1303-1
Rep0+1+1000617+1
Ind0000000000


Prediction Score (max Score = 22)

ScoreState WinsState Percentages
20119
piepiepie

Analysis

Presidential cycle gubernatorial races are leaning more and more Republican just based on the distribution of states. This is doubly true now that West Virginia and Missouri have fallen out of the competitive column. Galloway might be able to pull off Missouri with an October surprise scandal(considering the history of Republican fuck-ups in the state, it's possible.) Cooney doesn't have the name recognition to survive a polarized electorate in Montana and Sununu has pissed off a fair bit of New Hampshire liberals by being much more MAGA than put on in 2016. Still think he pulls it out, especially if Trump pulls out a win in New Hampshire.<br /><br /><br /> 11/13/2020 Notes: Not much to say. All called in line with what I thought, MT and MO weren't even close but I maintain the *possibility* was there given a late race surprise. I'll take my beating for the New Hampshire prediction. I thought it might swing against Sununu to make it close since Biden was polling so well and I thought split ticket voting might be on the downswing. New Hampshire continues to surprise. Bluer than I thought on Pres level and redder on Gov level.


Member Comments

User's Predictions

Prediction Score States Percent Total Accuracy Ver #D Rank#Pred
P 2022 Senate 35/35 29/35 64/70 91.4% pie 1 5 7T305
P 2022 Governor 35/36 26/36 61/72 84.7% pie 1 5 51T272
P 2020 President 55/56 46/56 101/112 90.2% pie 1 51 23T684
P 2020 Senate 31/35 22/35 53/70 75.7% pie 1 49 137T423
P 2020 Governor 11/11 9/11 20/22 90.9% pie 1 51 3T293
Aggregate Predictions 167/173 132/173 299/346 86.4% pie


Delaware Indiana Missouri Montana New Hampshire North Carolina North Dakota Utah Vermont Washington Washington Washington West Virginia

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